Saturday, February 20, 2010

February Poll Soup: The New Normal

We've had a fair chunk of polling out this month and the results are fairly consistent - a slim Tory lead, similar to what we saw in January, at the height of the prorogation backlash. The notable exception would be Environics, which had the Grits in front earlier this month.

Of course, every pundit has spent the past year talking about Harper's Olympic bounce. I'm not sure I really see the logic behind it - it's not like Alex Bilodeau is a Tory candidate, and we've seen a lot less of Harper over the past week than we usually do. But maybe that's the point. Perhaps with Canadians ignoring politics, the anger over prorogation will fade.

We'll find out over the next few weeks.


Ekos (Feb 10-16, n=3,600 auto-dialled)
CPC 31.2%
Lib 29.0%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 8.8%
Green 11.8%
Other 2.7%

Decima (Feb 4-14, n=4,045 phone)
CPC 32%
Lib 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 10%
Green 10%

Angus Reid (Feb 11-13, n=2,003 online)
CPC 34%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Environics (Feb 4-9, n=958 telephone)
CPC 33%
Lib 37%
NDP 13%
BQ 8%
Green 9%
Other 1%

Nanos (Jan 29-Feb 4, n = 1,002 telephone)
CPC 35.6%
Lib 33.9%
NDP 16.4%
BQ 8.5%
Green 5.6%


AVERAGE (change since January in brackets)

Conservative Party: 33.2% (+1.0%)
Liberal Party: 32.0% (+1.5%)
NDP: 16.0% (-0.7%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.9% (-0.5%)
Green Party 8.9% (-0.3%)

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9 Comments:

  • Do you think Harper will try and do whatever he can to avoid an election until 2011 ... at which time he can appoint replacements for the two senators retiring at the end of this year and give the Cons a majority in the senate? That way if Harper fails to win a majority on the third try and has to leave he has at least left a mark of some sort.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:32 PM  

  • He will leave a mark alright..

    http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/thesearch/archive/2008/09/10/why-stephen-harper-keeps-his-evangelicalism-very-private.aspx

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:21 PM  

  • Interesting that Harper's religion looks negatively on divorce yet in an earlier post on Anders there was some mention Laureen was divorced.

    Harper will leave a multitude of marks that hopefully will be erasable in time, albeit years and fingers crossed, not decades.

    If he can't destroy the Liberal party as he so desires at least Harper would have biased the Senate in his favour to thwart the Liberals long after he's disappeared from politics.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:03 PM  

  • Anonymous, that "scary" description of the Christian and Missionary Alliance could apply just as easily to the Catholic church. Yet we never see this kind of discussion about Catholic political leaders.

    Harper has been very consistent in supporting a focus on economic issues over social issues, going back to when he was a Reform MP. He was one of the few Reformers to support same-sex civil unions, described himself as in-between on the abortion issue (while running to lead the largely pro-life alliance), he made sure to hold his gay marriage vote at a time he knew it would fail, he has promoted almost all of the pro-gay marriage Conservatives within his caucus, and neither of his two supreme court appointments were remotely socially conservative.

    Anon 7:03, assuming Laureen did not commit adultery I don't think there would be a problem. Still I should think that most churches frown on divorce, even if they accept it. Christianity is not founded on a belief that marriage is about love between two people, but rather is about family (with kids).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 2:31 AM  

  • This is from 2006, but it gives a glimpse into how Harper sees the relationship between religion and politics. Also read Blaikie's response, which is excellent.

    http://www.christianity.ca/NetCommunity/Page.aspx?pid=2053

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 2:41 AM  

  • I can't see adding a few Senators as Harper's legacy project...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:56 AM  

  • shouldn't we be dreaming Big Canada about Michael Ignatieff's legacy?

    we should be prepping for the Thinker's Conference with brainstorming ways that Michael will mark Canada. Not Stephen Harper.

    Shame on you all for obsessing about that Generalissimo Harper when we should be dreaming on behalf of Martin Luther Ignatieff.

    By Anonymous Quiet Majority for Ignatieff, at 10:47 PM  

  • You dont need to be Martin Luther to be a bigger thinker compared than this lot of fundamentalist neo-cons. Anyone could do better.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:22 PM  

  • Anon@11:22 seems to have a lot of disdain for others, but saw QM's reference as being to Martin Luther, rather than to Martin Luther King?

    Is there a mirror around here somewhere that we could all use?

    By Blogger Paul, at 12:17 PM  

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