February Poll Soup: The New Normal

We've had a fair chunk of polling out this month and the results are fairly consistent - a slim Tory lead, similar to what we saw in January, at the height of the prorogation backlash. The notable exception would be Environics, which had the Grits in front earlier this month.

Of course, every pundit has spent the past year talking about Harper's Olympic bounce. I'm not sure I really see the logic behind it - it's not like Alex Bilodeau is a Tory candidate, and we've seen a lot less of Harper over the past week than we usually do. But maybe that's the point. Perhaps with Canadians ignoring politics, the anger over prorogation will fade.

We'll find out over the next few weeks.


Ekos (Feb 10-16, n=3,600 auto-dialled)
CPC 31.2%
Lib 29.0%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 8.8%
Green 11.8%
Other 2.7%

Decima (Feb 4-14, n=4,045 phone)
CPC 32%
Lib 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 10%
Green 10%

Angus Reid (Feb 11-13, n=2,003 online)
CPC 34%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Environics (Feb 4-9, n=958 telephone)
CPC 33%
Lib 37%
NDP 13%
BQ 8%
Green 9%
Other 1%

Nanos (Jan 29-Feb 4, n = 1,002 telephone)
CPC 35.6%
Lib 33.9%
NDP 16.4%
BQ 8.5%
Green 5.6%


AVERAGE (change since January in brackets)

Conservative Party: 33.2% (+1.0%)
Liberal Party: 32.0% (+1.5%)
NDP: 16.0% (-0.7%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.9% (-0.5%)
Green Party 8.9% (-0.3%)