Monday, January 19, 2009

January Poll Dance

It's debatable how much stock we should be placing in the polls until Ignatieff gets a chance to fully define himself. So rather than going bonkers over every poll that gets released, I think I'll just do a once-a-month round-up to get a rough lay of the land.

So here's what Canadians have been telling pollsters of late:

Angus Reid (Jan 14-15, 1000 online)
CPC 39%
Lib 30%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 5%

Strategic Counsel (Jan 12-14, 1000 telephone)
CPC 36%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Green 5%

Ipsos Reid (Jan 6-8, 1000 telephone)
CPC 39%
Lib 28%
NDP 15%
BQ 8%
Green 9%

Nanos (Jan 3-7, 1000 telephone)
CPC 33%
Lib 34%
NDP 19%
BQ 7%
Green 7%


MEAN
CPC 36.75%
Lib 30.5%
NDP 17.25%
BQ 8.75%
Green 6.5%


So, taken as a whole, it appears we're back to the 6-point holding pattern, which has generally been the norm since 2006. Despite this, there is some good news in Liberal land - Harper's "coalition bounce" is gone, the Grits are up in Quebec in every one of these polls, and Ignatieff is doing better on the "best PM" question than Dion ever did.

And all of that, is the context you can be sure the parties will be keeping in mind, as they decide how to approach the upcoming budget.

3 Comments:

  • What are the numbers in Alberta? In any of the polls showing the cons over 35%, they have really good numbers from Alberta, but that obviously doesn't help Harper since he can't possibly win any more seats there. (ok, one more, but still)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:44 PM  

  • OK! Back to the drawing board.

    Meanwhile, Obama becomes President. Thank Goodness.

    Obama is going to close down Quantanamo and forbid torture. For that alone, he deserves to be President.

    And, bush is leaving the Presidency with a perfect record. Zero, Zero, Zero!

    By Blogger JimTan, at 10:48 PM  

  • I think there are two bounces that have died off, not one coalition bounce. The coalition crisis increased political interest by Canadians. This has tended to help Conservatives, presumably because they do well among less politically active voters. This is probably why they usually beat pre-election polls (as did Stockwell Day, Preston Manning and Mike Harris, who assembled similar coalitions). That bounce may yet come back, should an election be called.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:09 AM  

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