Saturday, December 20, 2008

The Small Man of Confederation Gets his Way

Now that Ontarians have shown themselves to be responsible voters, Stephen Harper has agreed to give the province 21 more seats at the next redistribution.

If we assume that these seats, plus the 7 new ones in BC and 5 in Alberta, break down along current support lines, here's what the current parliament would look like (with the seats gained for each party in brackets):

CPC 162 (+19)
Lib 86 (+9)
NDP 42 (+5)
BQ 49
Ind 2

10 Comments:

  • Those two new Blocs seats . . . will they come from Ontario's new seats ?

    By Blogger Fred, at 1:49 PM  

  • I am not sure I agree with your numbers cg. Much of the new seats will go for cities (Toronto has probably had half the new growth). Are your numbers based on straight ont seat totals for the cons and libs, or something more detailed, and sinister!

    By Blogger ktr, at 2:42 PM  

  • First link doesn't work .

    By Blogger Bill D. Cat, at 4:00 PM  

  • Toronto pop. growth? Really???

    Toronto has gained 200k people in 15 years (91-06 census) or roughly 1 seat based on Ontario standards.

    Anyone with the sense that God gave Stephane Dion or his biggest fan Cherniak would know that the population growth in Ontario is in suburbs and CPC friendly cities (Ottawa, KWCG, London). While the 416 pop is up 9% in 15 years, the GTA pop is up 24% in that period - up 1.25M or 1M ex 416. That encompasses lots of ridings that are VERY marginal for the LPC.

    Actually i think ktr is Jason Cherniak himself, chief reality denial expert.

    By Blogger Hey, at 5:02 PM  

  • That still leaves Harper two seats off a majority.

    By Blogger FederalPapers, at 8:46 PM  

  • just two seats? By my count he'd need 171 in an enlarged Parliament, so he'd still be 9 seats short by CG's pro-rata.

    However, it opens the door to the possibility of a Tory majority that doesn't involve having to go through Quebec.

    The wooing formerly directed towards Quebec will now be directed towards Ontario. Hence an auto bailout.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 4:20 AM  

  • You know, if the LPC came up with a comprehensive, competitive, and viable platform, they wouldn't have to worry about the possibility of gerrymandered ridings.

    Strategizing is all very well, and not inconsequential, but ultimately a sound platform will win the day.

    Suppose the CPC DID manage to gerrymander the ridings; the LPC and the NDP would have to deal with that, or at least, it would be foolish to expend unnecessary energy expressing righteous indignation at the "unfairness" of it all.

    Harper would much rather the LPC spend their time on issues that HE creates than working on a competitive programme.

    By Blogger Party of One, at 6:30 AM  

  • Congratulations for being voted top Liberal blog, according to the National Post!!

    I agree with the ranking and the comments provided.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:12 AM  

  • "Strategizing is all very well, and not inconsequential, but ultimately a sound platform will win the day."

    Because we all know that's how the Conservatives won the last election, by coming out with policies and a full, sound platform after the debates and only a few days before the vote.

    What a laugh. Even at the debate, the Conservatives asked for an extended debate segment on the economy but they had nothing to say about the economy other than that we should not be doing anything, would not go into deficit and would not be in a recession.

    The Conservative campaign was an insult to Canadian voters and, now in hindsight, has been shown to be nothing but a fraud full of lies and attack ads.

    By Blogger Ted, at 10:37 AM  

  • Ted, I agree with you that the Conservative "platform" was a fraud and an insult to Canadian voters.

    The LPC wasn't able to counter the CPC platform because nothing was presented, and the LPC did an abysmal job of explaining and marketing the "Green Shift" platform that it had developed, even before the election was called. Not to mention the dissent in the ranks over Dion's leadership, another issue that HARPER generated.

    As long as Harper is setting the agenda for debate, the LPC is reduced to responding, rather than proactively promoting their own agendae.

    The LPC would be better off setting up a standing "extra-parliamentary" body consisting of elected MPs and unsuccessful LPC candidates, which would, with the assistance of rank and file LPC members, develop viable policy options on an ongoing basis (not just at conventions) that address current events and circumstances in a timely fashion.

    This would demonstrate to the Canadian public that the LPC was committed to democratic principles as well as competance.

    Unfortunately, in the last election, more Canadians voted for the devil they knew; the only proper response is to remove any lingering uncertainty about the LPC by opening up the process, communicating effectively, and establishing the LPC as a competant "government-in-waiting".

    By Blogger Party of One, at 12:18 PM  

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