Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Poll Position

Liblogs was engulfed in a virulent debate this morning about why the Nanos numbers were so far off from everyone else. Well, that didn't last long:

Nanos: CPC 38, Lib 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, Green 6
Decima: CPC 37, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 8, Green 11
Ekos: CPC 36, Lib 25, NDP 19, BQ 8, Green 12

The only significant difference is on the Green Party vote, which is definitely a reflection of the Nanos questions being closed and the Greens being prompted as a response on the other polls.

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11 Comments:

  • 2 weeks prior to the 2006 election, according to the Strategic Counsel...

    http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2006-01-17GMCTV%20Jan%2014-16Poll(Jan17).pdf

    January 14-16, 2006:

    CPC 42, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 12, Green 5

    We are in better shape than we were in 2006. To finish better than in 2006 three things need to happen:

    1. We need the Liberal War Room to make sure that we have no gaffes and make sure that we have an excellent set of effective ads (Element's Millar and Draper should take care of that). I would suggest calling Warren to help.

    2. An effective ground game. All Liberals who can, should make time to help the Team. Dion won the leadership convention with a majority in 2006, and it is time for all of us to respect that vote and put our past alliances behind us.

    3. We need an awesome performance by Stephane at the debates.

    By Anonymous MississaugaPeter, at 7:05 PM  

  • What's this I'm hearing about the current Liberal polling numbers in BC? Ouch!

    By Blogger paul.obeda@, at 8:59 PM  

  • 2 polls showing Liberals in 4th place in BC, one has them at 11%

    By Blogger wilson, at 11:04 PM  

  • "We are in better shape than we were in 2006."

    Keep telling yourself that. Harper isn't a blank slate who the Liberals can define anymore. The Liberals need a compelling reason to remove Harper from office and so far we haven't seen one.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:28 PM  

  • Hopefully this shuts up the Liberal bloggers who were salivating over Nanos for being the oracle of polling all week long.

    By Anonymous Deb, at 11:42 PM  

  • The only polls that matter will be the ones near the end.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:35 AM  

  • Who are the idiot co-chairs running the Quebec campaign?

    First they piss off Kinsella by calling him a "Chretien has-been", now they provide us with the campaign of the ages...

    http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-September-23-2008E.pdf

    with the Liberals behind the NDP in the province of Quebec.

    By Anonymous MississaugaPeter, at 3:43 AM  

  • The pre-debate phase of the campaign is essentially over and the poll numbers have gelled.

    The debates will switch everything and who knows what can happen. They are one day apart and really will signal the final stage of the campaign. The race will either tighten up, or widen. But I doubt it will remain the same.

    By Anonymous Riley Hennessey, at 10:39 AM  

  • "3. We need an awesome performance by Stephane at the debates."

    Two out of three aint bad?

    By Anonymous Mr Rectifier, at 12:51 PM  

  • It'll likely get worse for the Libs.

    When the polling gets close to the end, Quebec, followed by Ontario, will swing to the known winner. Last election, the winner was not clear enough, this time it will be.

    And, if Libs look really bad all over, more NDP voters who hold their nose and vote Liberal will not do so this time.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:23 PM  

  • Putting the current poll numbers through the Hill Knowlon election predictor, the Liberals win more seat in Quebec than the Conservatives.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 7:44 PM  

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