Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The One Take Home Message From Last Night

A once proud party lies in shambles. Serious soul searching is needed.

It's always hard to compare byelections to general elections due to low turn-out, different candidates, and altered voting tactics. The exception would be when the same candidate runs in both elections and the reasons to vote for him are identical in both instances. Luckily, in Vancouver Quadra this was (kind of) the case.

1988 Vancouver Quadra
John Turner (Rhinoceros Party): 760 votes, 1.4%

2008 Vancouver Quadra
John Turner (NeoRhino Party): 110 votes, 0.4%

And, to think, 1988 John Turner had to deal with a split "John Turner" vote, due to the presence of (fringe?) candidate the Right Honourable John Napier Turner on the ballot.

Tough times to be a rhino...

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  • Liberal apologists better realize that the actual turn-out in Vancouver Quadra was not that low for a bye-election (33.9%).

    Only less than 8% lower than the turn-out for the 2008 Alberta election (41%).

    Almost 40% higher turn-out than in Willowdale.

    Actual turn-out numbers:

    Vancouver Quadra: 33.9%
    Toronto Centre: 27.9%
    Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: 25%
    Willowdale: 24.4%

    And forget all those apologists for polls. This was an actual vote. And it was after the Cadman revelations and Naftagate.

    Maybe abstaining and the lack of differentiation between the Liberals and Conservatives (re: Afghanistan) really do matter outside the reach of The Toronto Star.

    If the only way to get rid of Dion now is to call an election, let's do it, before he does even further damage to the Liberal brand.

    Or maybe, grassroots Liberals need to start a petition to force a leadership vote at December's biennial convention.

    By Anonymous mississaugajoan, at 9:21 AM  

  • thanks for the morning laugh mississaugajoke!
    3 outta 4. go team dion!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:12 AM  

  • Yeah I could see the Libs holding on to three-quarters of their current seats. Go Team Dion!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:22 AM  

  • No matter what Liberals are in dismal state. Bob Rae? A failed NDP premier. So much that Ontario NDP had to distance itself from him. He being elected to Parliament is a bad news for Liberals.

    Yes count me in for Rhinos too.

    By Blogger LeDaro, at 11:19 AM  

  • Maybe Rae will hire Tindal as an Iraqi issues consultant.

    By Blogger Saskboy, at 11:32 AM  

  • The rhinoceros? Interesting comparison with the LPC!

    South of the border, Obama confronts the race issue head-on. Risky reversal of his previous stance! We’ll see how it works out for him. His free ride is over.

    We will get a chance to see the greatness of the man, or not.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:35 PM  

  • I thought we were supposed to do some "serious soul searching" during the leadership race!

    It feels like very few of the Liberals did ANYTHING at all! Especially the Old Guard!

    I wish there were 120 more disgruntled Liberals who bothered to show up at the Vcvr polls yesterday.

    These people will NOT untighten their grip on the LPC until we FORCE them to!

    If it takes 5 miserable years of Harper Majority to clean up the Party, then so be it! I am sick of the Dion clan's crap!

    and if Bob Ray or Iggy think they are any better, I'll take another majority Tory govm't until they, too, hang themselves with their own rope!

    Sitting on my hands on purpose Liberal

    By Anonymous Jenny, at 1:23 PM  

  • I'd rather have the liberal party die than 5 years of Harper Majority.

    If the left wasn't split at least two ways, or we had a similar split on the right again, we'd see a government that more reflected the national character of Canada. As it is though, conservative voters, especially socially conservative voters who want to control my sex-life, tend to turn out big at the polls and only have one group to vote for. While those who aren't interested in controlling me also tend not to be as interested in dictating who can control anybody so don't vote as much.

    I'd love to see mandatory ballot attendance, personally. The right to not vote can be maintained, but I see nothing wrong with requiring people to at least go down to the ballot box once every election to verify their presence in our society.

    I'm also sad for the Greens, they've got some great policies, but a loony-toons leader, and too much of a negative image attached to the name ("druggy tree-hugging slack-ass hippies") is really holding them back. Strong candidates like Tindal certainly don't hurt, but come national election time, they're often having to take barrel scrapings for candidates.

    I would really love to see Greens being smart about their campaigning and showing off their fiscal conservatism in the next election, especially out west.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:26 PM  

  • especially socially conservative voters who want to control my sex-life

    What ever helps you sleep at night, but I'm quite certain that nobody in Canada gives a shit who you sleep with.

    By Blogger McLea, at 4:22 PM  

  • Unless he's into 14 yr olds.
    The irrational fear of Harper's hidden agenda rears it's ugly head again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:28 PM  

  • The trouble of tactics like this is that it becomes *big news* and further tarnishes the Liberal Party of Canada.

    ** You do whatever you like with this info; I'm directing it at Kate. Did you know that many government computers that are owned and operated by Public Services Canada, and specifically installed for free use to the general public have a special *firewall* that prohibits access to SDA and many other similar political blogs, sites, **

    I can confirm this, and also confirm that Steve Janke is blocked. But Warren Kinsella is not.

    There is a verifiable pro-Liberal anti-Conservative bias at Public Works Canada at this very moment. It was reported at SDA months ago, if you check the archives.

    The government of Canada is specifically censoring the blog SmallDeadAnimals.com from PWGSC computers, while allowing similarly political Liberal blogs such as WarrenKinsella.com. This is a fact that will be confirmed by an access to information request.

    ============= Posted by: PWGSC worker

    Liberals don*t want to be shielded from the *WHOLE* picture, do they?

    What you don*t know can bite you HARD, although Ex-Liberal Gomery was gentle, I admit. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 5:42 PM  

  • The government of Canada is specifically censoring the blog SmallDeadAnimals.com from PWGSC computers, while allowing similarly political Liberal blogs such as WarrenKinsella.com. This is a fact that will be confirmed by an access to information request.

    Most businesses and government departments block access to sites full of racist, sexist, homophobic and otherwise objectionable garbage.

    Not saying Kate is racist, sexist or homophobic, but if Kate cleaned up the crap in her comments, maybe she wouldn't be blacklisted.

    Kinsella doesn't have that problem because he doesn't give airtime in his comments to the maladjusted thirtysomething right-wing nutbars masturbating their parents' basement over pictures of Anne Coulter.

    Besides, what kind of libertarian insists that the owner of a computer network has an obligation to permit access to all available web sites to users of that network?

    You have a right to speak, jackass, not a right to be heard (or read).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:22 PM  

  • That is just the emotional low level animal response that make your fellow Liberals cringe. Too bad. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 11:02 PM  

  • The turnout in Vancouver-Quadra in the 2006 general election was 67% this time it was 33%. Guess what Liberal voters thought Libs would win the riding and stayed home. While the cons were portraying this to be a close race from day one in the media here, so con voters came out and all the advance polls went to the con candidate. This tells us about the poor Liberal organization in Vancouver-Quadra more than anything. Also, the Greens are going to be a huge factor come next election more so for the NDP but certainly for the libs especialy in BC and maybe Winnipeg.

    Also, the combined Reform and PC vote in Vancouver-Quadra was more than the Liberal vote until the parties were merged. So, Vancouver-Quadra the only majority white anglo uper middle class riding in Vancouver is not as safe as the Libs might like to think. The riding has pretty much the same demographics as many suburban con seats in BC after all(except for UBC and Kits maybe). Aboriginal, Ethnic and Gay/bi vote is the only solid Liberal vote in BC. The rest is all Con, NDP or swing vote.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:51 PM  

  • >>>>> Also, the combined Reform and PC vote in Vancouver-Quadra was more than the Liberal vote until the parties were merged.

    In 2004 PC vote moved over to the Liberals in NV, Burnaby and Quadra. Indeed, add the 2000 Liberal vote in these ridings to the 2000 PC vote and you get almost exactly the Liberal vote in 2004. To wit: North Vancouver: 2000, Liberal 32.55, PC 7.09, 2004 Liberal 40.07. Quadra 2000 Liberal 43.81, PC 9.36, 2004 Liberal 52.38. Burnaby 2000, Liberals 24.71, PC 5.42 2004 Liberals 32.55. Of course, the combined support the two conservative parties dropped more than 21 points and the Liberals share of the popular vote went up only slightly (27.7 vs. 28.57). So where did that support go. Most of it went to the NDP. At the same time as Alliance/new Conservative Party lost its status as a Western protest party the Federal NDP partly regained its status as one stopped being weighed down by its provincial brethren. As a result, for the first time since the 1988 election Federal voters returned to the NDP in droves. That is just one reason why Jack Layton’s Ontariocentric attack the Liberals strategy is so hopelessly misconceived. The Grits and NDP are not battling for the same voter in virtually all of BC. The Conservatives and NDP are.

    The reason the Liberals are in real trouble in Vancouver is that they have let the Conservatives off the social conservative hook. They were doing extremely well in wealthy, well educated communities such as Quadra and North Vancouver when the SSM issue was alive and well, but since then they have not bothered to take a position that would force Harper to play kissy face with Charles Mcvety. Charles McVety is literally a god sent. The Liberals should run McVety litmus test on their policies. If a policy would make McVety’s head explode, it’s a keeper. Seriously though, chances are if McVety hates it, it will be a winner in Canada’s three largest cities. Point Gray Red Tories, Shaunhassey professors, Kits hippesters and UBC dorm kids are not going stand by watch the party of Jerry Farwell win Quadra. It is just that simple.

    By Blogger Koby, at 4:33 AM  

  • anon mentions poor Liberal organization and I think that is a huge problem. There are lots of signs that their behind the scenes organization is weak and also I have heard that they have a weak advertising company behind their campaign. The question is are they going to get their act together and are they going to show better judgement in choosing some of the people they hire?

    By Anonymous clh, at 8:38 AM  

  • Koby could you email your post to Mark Marissen or Jack Layton, Please!!! Before the Tories play the Reform alienation game all over again.

    James Moore was on CBC today claiming Western Canada doesnot like the Liberal brand(He's probably never been to Kingsway or Robson) and he cites DMCR and Quadra(oh we almost won a riding near downtown), two very diferent ridings Moore's party seemed to have gained in, for two very different reasons(although Quadra is hardly a gain as half of the Lib voters stayed home). The spinsters have already begun. Vancouver Sun is going to keep spinning it until the next election.

    Also, i'm not surprised that the Tories polled 10,000 votes in Quadra, afterall its part of the "Howard Charles Green" Tory land. When you have Larry Campbell a Liberal senator, supporting the naming of a government building after the man who said "The Japs must never be allowed to return to British Columbia" and a lot worse, you know you've got a problem and the lines are blurred here more than any other place in the big three.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:48 PM  

  • Also, what do you think is the main reason behind Vancouver having the most regressive media in the whole country. BCTV(now Global BC!!! why not Global Vancouver??), Vancouver Sun, The Province, CKNW and the list goes on heck even radio stations that play rock music, all appear as if they get their news and views from the Pravda of Right wing. The stuff that they get away with on a regular basis especially when it comes to certain sections of the society and the political spectrum, makes one wonder if Vancouver really is the city it portrays itself to be. Why this disconnect between the general political leanings of the majority of urban population and the media. Even The Calgary Herald is more objective and fair in its reporting.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:09 PM  

  • [TiP]

    This is a comment made by ET from SDA. Saves me from saying, [typing] the exact same thing. .

    ** Check out Steve Janke's blog, *Angry in the Great White North.*

    They are having a discussion, with, apparently, a Liberal, about the backroom agenda on dealing with Dion.

    Most of it is focused on getting Dion to resign, with the intent of having Bob Rae take over as leader.

    [just as I forcast..remember?= TG]

    Rumours are that Ignatieff will be deposed and Rae will replace him as Deputy Leader. I wonder if Ignatieff might then leave..back to academia.

    Discussion is on the fact that the two leadership candidates, Rae and Findlay, both won easily. But the two candidates selected by Dion either lost or narrowly won.

    Then, there's the suggestion that Rae*s backers, PowerCorp, Desmarais, might *buy off* Dion, who still has to pay off his leadership expenses. [I*m sure Rae*s are already paid off by PowerCorp.]

    Somehow, the Liberals want to get rid of Dion and get Rae in as the Liberal leader. Not Ignatieff. Rae.

    My own view is that they will try to marginalize Dion by their tactic of *we don*t have a single leader* but a Team-Leadership. That tactic has a limited reach; Dion would collapse in the Leadership debates. **======== ET from SDA.

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 7:52 PM  

  • That*s SteveJanke.com

    AngryGWN no longer works. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 7:59 PM  

  • Dion has a priceless opportunity to raise his stature and the Liberal Party stature as well.

    Demonstrating great grace and maturity, he could state that his not very fluid English makes him less than ideal as Liberal leader at this time. Therefore he will resign and make way for a more effective Liberal Party leader. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 1:07 AM  

  • http://www.hammertimegp.blogspot.com

    By Blogger HammertimeGP, at 2:49 PM  

  • My (John Turner, neorhino.ca) 111 votes + Psamuel Frank's (Canadian Action Party)40 votes = 151 votes = the EXACT difference between Joyce Murray (Liberal) and Deborah Meredith (Conservative).Although I highly doubt that the votes from Psamuel Frank's and my side of the political spectrum would have gone to Deborah Meredith, it would have made for an interesting final vote count wouldn't it. With a dead heat tie for first place I imagine that a new by-election would have to be held. That would be too bad because I have this great mental picture of Joyce and Deborah sharing the same seat in the House of Commons. The only question that I have of that hypothetical situation is: who would be sitting on who's lap!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:59 PM  

  • By Blogger John, at 6:59 AM  

  • By Blogger 柯云, at 8:13 PM  

  • By Blogger Gege Dai, at 3:31 AM  

  • By Blogger 柯云, at 1:46 AM  

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