Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Polls

The Globe has a very detailed poll out today on perceptions of Stephen Harper. There are a lot of interesting questions in there but the quick and dirty of it is that Harper isn't all that popular with Canadians but Canadians are fairly happy with his government as a whole (at least on the right/track wrong track question).

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7 Comments:

  • It's a Strategic Counsel poll. These are the same Reform propagandists who tried to make Canadians swallow a 42-24 Con/Lib poll in mid-January in the last federal election. The only federal polling I put any stock in is SES Research. SES's work is bang on.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 11:51 PM  

  • While it might be a Strategic Counsel poll and thereby highly suspect, it does point out the fact that at least among those who were polled, the word "controlling" seems to be how Canadians see Harper. Sure, he's competent, sure he's run a relatively scandal free government, but Canadians aren't feeling the love and we so want to be loved by our national leader, now don't we?

    By Blogger Sean Cummings, at 8:26 AM  

  • Not that I disagree, but why would the anti-Conservative G&M get a survey from a pro-Conservative group?

    Interesting notes:
    - Liberal votes are more prone to switch than Tory
    - Quebec's belief that the country is on the right track rose for 34% to 59%
    - Check out page 14 (and 17): obviously anti-Conservative propaganda is properly aimed

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 3:17 PM  

  • "why would the anti-Conservative G&M get a survey from a pro-Conservative group?"

    Possibilities:
    -boredom
    -provoke this kind of response
    -they aren't anti-Conservative, they are anti-opposition.

    By Blogger Saskboy, at 7:57 PM  

  • It's a Strategic Counsel poll. These are the same Reform propagandists who tried to make Canadians swallow a 42-24 Con/Lib poll in mid-January in the last federal election.

    Actually, they're the guys who buried the 42-24 poll, and then when the "rogue" polling day was dropped (under highly suspicious circumstances), they suddenly used the previous 42-24 figure as a baseline so they could loudly proclaim that "Harper's lead takes a hit".

    By Blogger The Invisible Hand, at 9:18 PM  

  • I think there's a ceiling on Harper's support. It's been very persistent. Hopefully it means never a majority, or better yet never again elected.

    By Blogger Crabgrass, at 8:10 PM  

  • I too think Strategic Counsel is suspect, but I should note their numbers are not far off the most recent SES poll which was 36% Conservative and 33% Liberal. The 42-24 was a rogue poll, which happens 1 out of every 20 polls and never mind their first question was which party has the most momentum so this probably confused a few people.

    What these polls really say is it is too early to tell who will win, but a majority will be very difficult for either party to achieve although not impossible if one party implodes during the campaign.

    In addition I think most Canadians are not exactly happy with Harper as PM, but they tolerate him enough they would vote for him if there is no better alternative, but would happily go elsewhere if someone offers a better alternative.

    If Dion can give a strong campaign that not only highlights the Tory weaknesses, but a solid plan of how the Liberals will do things differently they can easily win.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 11:49 PM  

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