Wednesday, February 14, 2007


A new Leger poll has Charest continuing to rise:

Lib 36
PQ 31
ADQ 21
Quebec Solidaire 5
Greens 5

As for who would make the best Premier?

Mario Dumont 28%
Andre Boisclair 26%
Jean Charest 24%

This will be an interesting vote to watch, especially given the implications on the federal scene. A Charest win would be a huge vindication for Harper's Quebec strategy while a PQ victory would let Dion highlight his national unity credentials a bit more.


  • what is the change in the polls for the ADQ? I think they may also be a party to watch, they were really interesting last election

    By Blogger kevin, at 2:22 PM  

  • I think people have written off the Bloc way too quickly in the last 2 weeks - when someone is down but not out, be wary.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 2:35 PM  

  • I wonder what would the chances of be of an ADQ upset? Or will Quebec Solidare pull away centre-left sovereigntist votes from the PQ? It would certainly be an interesting election to watch- but Quebec should really consider electoral reform.

    By Blogger Drew Adamick, at 2:35 PM  

  • I really can't see the ADQ winning, but it's certainly not far fetched to say that Quebec is heading towards it's first minority government ever.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:03 PM  

  • Bear in mind that the ADQ was leading in pre-election polls last time. And then grabbed two extra seats. There's little staying power in those numbers. What's fantastic is that Charest's personal popularity is within the margin of error of the other two. That's one hell of a rehabilitation and inexplicable for either Dumont or Boisclair.

    We can make two assumputions: a) Charest's numbers will rise during the campaign. b) Dumont will be more of a force this time than the last time (this is really his last shot, so he's going to give it a lot).

    The issue, then, is whether the ADQ siphon PQ or PLQ votes in suburban and semi-rural ridings.

    I expect Charest to win outright based on two entirely different things: 1) Everyone gets two kicks at the can in Quebec, 2) he has upward momentum.

    The issue will be how vote-splitting works in suburban Quebec

    By Blogger matt, at 4:34 PM  

  • If Charest doesn't win a majority, I think he will be the Conservative candidate in Sherbrooke in the next federal election. If Dumont drops in the actual election results again, he may be the Conservative candidate in Riviere-du-Loup. Perhaps Boisclair will wind up being the Liberal candidate in Toronto Centre.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 4:44 PM  

  • This is one Federal Liberal who hopes Charest wins despite the fact that his losing might be good for Dion.

    By Blogger Darrell, at 11:02 AM  

  • At 21% in the polls, Quebec would have its first minority government ever, which is what it will have if one or the other of the two larger parties can't pop even this fairly modest ADQ bubble.

    The ADQ siphons off rural and "la couronne" francophone soft-nationalist votes. Bad news for the PQ, primarilly; for the PLQ in a handful of rural and Quebec City area seats.

    Oddly enough, the ridings that the federal Tories won in 2006, and are currently targetting, overlap much more neatly with the ADQ's current and former seats, and their "targettables", than with the seats that Charest delivered, or did respectably in, as PC leader in 1997.

    Question: If Charest is merely hobbled in this election, but not outright defeated, what does that do to Harper's grand scheme?

    By Blogger WJM, at 11:08 PM  

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