Sunday, January 08, 2006

The Liberal Empire Strikes Back

The newest Liberal ads are out and we're seeing hints of the negative campaign to come. Two of the three are certainly negative, although they're not overly nasty and I expect them to get a lot worse if the poll numbers keep slipping for Paul. Here's my view of the trio of new Liberal ads released today:


Supporting Canadian Families

The Message: Paul Martin loves families...and puppies...and sunshine...
Grade: B+
The Ad: Pictures of happy Canadians while the female voice over talks about Liberals policies designed to help families.
My Take: Like most of the Liberal ads, it's a bit all over the place, but it does tie it together with the "families" theme. It also details some specific policies, like the post-secondary plan, that have been overlooked by the media because of various scandals. It's a feel good ad and while it's not as snappy as the "30 million reasons" ads, it hits on specifics.


One Leader

The Message: One leader rocks, one leader sucks, let's pretend Jack Layton doesn't exist
Grade: B-
The Ad: It's 2004 all over again as Iraq and firing guns make a return (although this time, the gun isn't shooting the viewer). The commercial ends with video of the highlight of Paul Martin's tenure as Liberal leader.
My Take: Even though it was disengenuous, I would have given the 2004 ad an "A" because it hit hard on fears people had. Canadians don't believe Harper will take the country into deficit when our surpluses are so big and I think the Liberals will need to hit harder using some of Harper's old quotes because I can't see these claims scaring anyone. I'm also extremely perplexed by what "one leader produced the strongest economy in the Western world" and "one leader would have taken our troops to Iraq" have to do with each other.


Early Learning and Childcare

The Message: Stephen Harper wants to kill children (or so says Mr. "glass is half empty...and poisoned" Andrew Coyne).
Grade: A-
The Ad: This one starts with a Guess Who board of cute children who are erased one at a time while the voice over explains the problems with Harper's daycare proposal.
My Take: I actually like this ad. It's an attack ad, but policy based. It's very well put together with those subliminal visual scare tactics which worked so well last year. The only reason for the minus is because "beer and popcorn" have hurt this issue for the Liberals and I have doubts that child care is an issue which will move votes at this point.

15 Comments:

  • The Liberals have gone to so much effort over the years to dig up conservative quotes and Harper speeches. Yet, despite reaping the rewards every time a Conservative says something dumb, I have never heard Martin or any other party higher up quote Harper in speech, in a debate and I have never heard Harper quoted in TV ad or radio bit. The following is good gold use it: Stephen Harper: “Any country with Canada’s insecure smugness and resentment can be dangerous.”

    By Blogger Koby, at 5:35 a.m.  

  • My Take: I actually like this ad. It's an attack ad, but policy based. It's very well put together with those subliminal visual scare tactics which worked so well last year. The only reason for the minus is because "beer and popcorn" have hurt this issue for the Liberals and I have doubts that child care is an issue which will move votes at this point.

    Regarding the childcare ad: I have 2 children under 6 and 1 more on the way. I do not know too many people who have children or had young children in the last 10 years that are voting for the Liberals on this issue. This massive mega-billion promise has been around for a long time and nothing has materialized. I for one do not want the government telling me how to raise my children, let alone convincing other people if I am given money I will spend it on beer and popcorn (i prefer coke and doritos for the record).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:49 a.m.  

  • Why was my previous comment censored?

    Regarding the childcare ad: I have 2 children under 6 and 1 more on the way. I do not know too many people who have children or had young children in the last 10 years that are voting for the Liberals on this issue. This massive mega-billion promise has been around for a long time and nothing has materialized. I for one do not want the government telling me how to raise my children, let alone convincing other people if I am given money I will spend it on beer and popcorn (i prefer coke and doritos for the record).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:57 a.m.  

  • I wonder how many of the children are actually Liberal insiders?

    By Blogger Jeff, at 9:42 a.m.  

  • The quality of these spots and the way the message is delivered should be clear to people who fell for the "leak" of stuff before Christmas.

    They also stand in stark contrast to the heavy-handed Conservative approach, even in the "negative" Liberal ones.

    The predictable and lame cracks about "Liberal insiders" are actually tesimony to how effective these spots are.

    The best they can do is go off-topic rather than deal with the straight up, fact-based presentations.

    There are no paid actors pretending to be anything they aren't - like news anchors or people who asked unscripted questions nope.

    If they are paid actors then they are what they are:

    children and parents.

    oh yeah.

    and as for the party? The Liberals are liberals.

    They aren't Conservatives saying anything it takes - including pretending to be moderates - to get elected.

    By Blogger Edward Hollett, at 10:09 a.m.  

  • I would not consider the child care ad to be negative. Pointing out the positives of your program while pointing out the negatives of your opponent's program is wholly legitimate. I beleive they call it a debate.

    The second One Leader ad on the other hand is negative but only subtly so. It is not over the top like the Conservative negative ads.

    By Blogger ottlib, at 11:43 a.m.  

  • I don't think they'll be that effective. Most people, especially Ontarians, ahev seen these kinds of ads over and over and . . . Really, pictures of cute kids disappearing, and tanks, and guns, it's all too blatant and emotional plug with no policy behind it. Finally, they'll only work if the Libs can afford to air them. I haven't seen any yet.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:08 p.m.  

  • Did people notice the number of Ads that are focus on Goodale's hard work in Sask. - I guess this means Goodale believes he is on his way out and need all the support the party can give him.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:14 p.m.  

  • Ah, their attack ads have always been good. I just think that a large portion of the population is going to discount anything the Liberals say, this election.

    Off topic, the latest "Liberal costing of CPC programs" is on their website. As usual, they have phony surpluses as a starting point. The first comment on the post also has a very valid point:

    http://www.thiscanada.com/2006/01/08/liberal-funny-money-again/

    Enjoy, Erik

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:56 p.m.  

  • I've been listening to a talk radio show on CKUA here in Edmonton and former provincial tory cabinet minister John Oldring is predicting a Tory majority this time.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:14 p.m.  

  • Well, maybe "predicting" is too strong--more like raising the possibility of a majority due to gains in Ontario and Quebec.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:17 p.m.  

  • Update: The Liberals and the CBC have been snookered royally by the CPC. See here, particularly the update at the bottom which shows that the Conference Board of Canada has audited the CPC platform costs!

    http://www.thiscanada.com/2006/01/08/liberal-funny-money-again/

    Should make for a VERY interesting Monday night debate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:02 p.m.  

  • I think the Liberals are in a pretty sorry state when they have to dredge up the 2004 commercials and try to utilize the same old, same old scare tactics on Canadians.
    Isn't the Iraq thing a dead letter by now? Also, given the well-known and well-circulated "three comments of doom" made by Martin expressing his personal preference on Canada-in-Iraq, is this really such a good idea? It's really sad when they have to try and build a counterfactual argument that is now three years old on something the Conservatives have come out openly and said they wouldn't have done, and try to use it as a knockout punch. It reeks of desperation, and I hope that people turn on this ad as quickly as they turned on the "face ads" used by the PCs back in 1993. I don't care if I appear in the ad (final shot of Martin at the Libs' leadership convention), not even my appearance makes this a good, effective ad.

    By Blogger RGM, at 4:15 p.m.  

  • I'm excited.

    The Liberals are so badly behind with such an inept leader that the negative ads (which everyone agrees they must run) should become very entertaining indeed!

    - CPC supporter.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:47 p.m.  

  • By Blogger 柯云, at 1:49 a.m.  

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