Thursday, January 05, 2006


SES has the Tories up 36-33 (although, given the rolling nature of the poll, they'll drop a very good day for the Tories tomorrow so I suspect we'll see the two parties within a point of a each other), while Gregg has the two parties in a dead heat: 32-32.

Paul Wells mentioned how the Liberals are welcoming this, feeling that it will energize the base and scare Dippers back to the fold. To a certain extent, that's probably true. But this is all based on demonizing Harper and I think we can all agree that Stephen Harper doesn't look nearly as scary as he did 18 months ago.

There's also the fact that the Tories are now in the 32-36 range for poll numbers, up from their earlier 27-30 range. Since the Tories can form government with 1 or 2 percent of the popular vote less than the Liberals, if they can get 34% on voting day, it really doesn't matter how many NDP voters get scared to the Liberals since, so long as Jack keeps his base, the Tories still form government.


  • Agreed. If the Tories get within two points of the Grits on election day, Harper wins. Too bad, so sad Paulie, but that's the way the plurality breaks. It's a point that the "so=called" talking heads might want to raise every once in a while.

    By Anonymous herringchoker, at 4:25 PM  

  • I can't believe the CPC are in a statistical tie with the LPC in Quebec. The SES poll has the spread larger (hence 'statistical' tie), but it's definitely a major shift in the political landscape.

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