Thursday, January 05, 2006

Zut Alors

The Tories are jumping up in the polls, and it's on the strength of...wait for it...Quebec?!?!

Leger
BQ 45
Lib 26
CPC 16
NDP 10

SES
BQ 51
Lib 24
CPC 15
NDP 7

Ekos
BQ 44
Lib 22
CPC 20
NDP 10

While the Ekos may be an outlier, it certainly appears that Harper is making a dent in Quebec.


UPDATE: I tend to think this won't help the Quebec campaign for the Grits. Neither will the types of news days like today. CTV news described PMPM's post sec announcement as "A tired and confused Paul Martin announced his party's previously leaked platform in a half empty gymnasium." (paraphrasing)

posted by calgarygrit at 9:07 p.m.

23 Comments:

  • Is arnab joking?

    Of course people who are federalist vote for the Bloc.

    See, hopefully, after this election, we Quebeckers won't be patronized by the Liberal-Separatist symbiosis that forces federalists to vote Liberal even if they are revolted with Liberal policies and practices.

    I believe the Liberals should be reduced to fringe party status in Quebec because they have so smeared the federalist cause in Quebec.

    Tell me, where you at the unity rally during the 95 refendum?

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 10:12 p.m.  

  • Well, since it is the Bloc losing support, not the Liberals, I don't think this will result in seat gains for the Cons. And I am sure that Gilles is going to come out guns ablazing taking down the Cons in Quebec... I mean, he must be sitting on wads of cash just waiting to be spent. Though, it could be that ADQistes have finally decided to support the right-of-center party on the federal level instead of supporting the Bloc.

    By Blogger Justin, at 11:19 p.m.  

  • its just not stopping. the only ones who can stop the momentum are the tories themselves. its a toss-up that in the last election the tories imploded rather than paul martin doing anything (musing majority, child-porn, retreating to fortress alberta). the only ace-in-the-hole the libs had last time was the scary, fearmongering label stuck on Harper.

    So far, the only difference between this election and the last is that voters no longer see Harper and tories as scary. Is it just me or does everywhere I look in the media, the Tories are featured prominently over the Liberals (Harper's pictures look flattering and Martin looks positively ill). At this point in the campaign, unless monte solberg doesn't eat a puppy on TV, Martin is going to have a hard time arresting Tory momentum by himself. He needs their help to do it.

    Any strategist will tell you that banking on your opponents making a mistake rather than doing anything yourself increases the chance of your failure. Banking on your opponents making it twice is plain inept. They should've had a plan B. Of course, there's still time for the Tories to implode.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:34 p.m.  

  • Justin, what are you thinking? Support for the Bloc bleeding to the CPC would be, in case you are completely incapable of intelligent thought on your own, federalists that were voting Bloc because they were disgusted by the LPC. Those that left the LPC for the CPC earlier (bumping them up last week) were the federalists refusing to vote Bloc but looking for a home other than the LPC.

    My God, the arrogance of Liberals can still astound me.

    By Blogger Candace, at 11:34 p.m.  

  • Actually the polls do show some Lib droppage as well.

    Some from the Libs, more from the Bloq, spells disaster for the Libs.

    Directly, but also a spiral downward, wherein Ontario voters start to see the CPC as a real federalist option, will also move toward the CPC.

    Remember, just a couple of weeks ago, it was simply assumed that the CPC wouldn't even get a seat in Quebec. Now they're at least looking at three. Once those numbers start to tip, watch out.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:48 p.m.  

  • 20% of Quebec = 5 to 7 seats mathmatically.

    How bout the newest scandal eh?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060105.woptions0105/BNStory/Front/

    What happened to landslide Annie tonight anyway, she looked like Duffy stuffed a canary in her mouth when he brought up the "Options Scandal" Which will be coming to a Globe and Mail Press Release at the link above for you.

    Being a Tory, I'm liken this.

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 11:57 p.m.  

  • So how many RCMP interviews a day is PM^2 going to be having? That has to cut into his ability to campaign!!!

    Quebec numbers should have huge ramifications in Ontario, Atlantic, as well as snowballing in Quebec. If people think that they can vote con and not get a BQ win in their riding, you'll see lots of anglos and other federalists jump ship. Liberal implosion, as much of their support in Quebec is from people slicing off all of their olfactory nerves so taht they can have a federalist MP.

    C'est magnifique!!! Et puis, ca va etre plus grand en Ontario. J'adore Martin et sa bande de criminels!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:15 a.m.  

  • Do you think Laurie Hawn is hoisting a scotch and laughing his ass off tonight... I think so.

    Go Laurie!

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 12:55 a.m.  

  • Just taking a quick look at the schedule remaining for all of the campaigning party leaders. Friday is the 6th, which leaves 17 days until the 23rd. If you remove the 6 weekend days, the 2 debate days and E-day, that gives the Grits 8 days to change the direction of their campaign. They have to do this with diminishing funds, behind a weary leader, being pursued by 2 RCMP investigations and an oppostion leader who appears to be just hitting his stride.

    Just some perspective for y'all.

    By Blogger FRANCISM, at 1:46 a.m.  

  • Yup. The CTV national tonight. That will teach Scott Reid for pissing off Bob Fife. Pay the Libs $10,000 a week to ride on their plane and get the same crap on their blackberry's as everbody else.

    Oh yes, the much vaunted Liberal war room. They got pea shooters when everybody else is packing hand guns.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:12 a.m.  

  • It was a fairly uninspired speech, I have to admit. Kind of sad really, because the policy itself was a real winner in my opinion.

    By Blogger Red Tory, at 9:29 a.m.  

  • Red Tory: Want to know why it fell flat?

    Simple and typical. They announced it last election, and set aside the cash just before this one, and then re-announced in free fall.

    "We are extremely disappointed that the Prime Minister chose not follow through on an election promise"

    "The Prime Minister is wrong if he thinks that students have forgotten about a $8 billion promise he made on June 4, 2004."

    George Soule
    National Chairperson
    Canadian Federation of Students

    Canadian Democratic Movement website (h/t Stephen Taylor)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:59 a.m.  

  • Matt... your election math is very wrong, or are you doing a prediction.

    Joe Green... your strangely silent... just in case your looking though, the CTV Blog had a special something just for you, courtesy of your friendly neighborhood NDP.

    How about "scary" Belinda Stronach - Mike Harris' choice for Prime Minister?

    "[A] person with vision, a person with experience, a person with courage, a person who has the ideas, and a person who has the conviction that can help Canada recover to be the number one country in the world." - Mike Harris nominating Belinda Stronach for CPC Leader, Toronto Sun, January 29, 2004

    "I believe Harris made the most significant mark on Ontario and I did go to him seeking advice." - Belinda Stronach, Toronto Star, January 25, 2004


    How about "scary" Scott Brison Liberal candidate for Kings-Hants?

    "Tax reduction and significant tax cuts resonate significantly with Canadians as do messages from governments that keep their word. Mike Harris and Ralph Klein have remained consistent in keeping their word and providing meaningful tax relief to Canadians." - Scott Brison, House of Commons, June 10, 1999


    How about "scary" Keith Martin Liberal candidate for Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca?

    "Premier Klein and Premier Harris are trying to fix the publicly funded health care system. This [Liberal] government has been gutting it." - Keith Martin, November 19. 1999


    How about "scary" Gary Carr Liberal candidate for Halton?


    Oakville South MPP Gary Carr says that when he talks about Progressive Conservative Leader Mike Harris' "common sense revolution" he's not just mouthing the party line. - Toronto Star, May 23, 1995


    Of course, the only person Mike Harris was scared of was "scary" Paul Martin:

    "The only thing that I would say is obscene when it comes to health care is the Liberal Party of Canada, through Paul Martin, slashing health care spending by over $2 billion to the province of Ontario." - Mike Harris, Legislative Assembly, December 4, 1996

    Course, being some sort of wierdo Liberal fanatic, you'll find a way to deny, deny, deny.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:00 p.m.  

  • "I believe liberals should try harder to get the attention of the quebec voters"

    LOL. If they got any more attention it would be tar to go with the feathers.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:02 p.m.  

  • Again, Joe Green demonstrates that even the most mentally deficient among us can post a comment.

    I am sooooooo happy he is coming out strong for the Liberals.

    And yes, the Liberals are shooting up in the polls in Quebec. We're saying: steal more from us, insult us with that idiot-talk that comes out of Marc Garneau.

    More joe, more!

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 12:33 p.m.  

  • Less than 15 seats for the Bloc???? That is laughable! Even with the gains posted by Harper, Duceppe's boys are still gunning for at least 50.

    By Blogger RGM, at 1:39 p.m.  

  • good question, syncrodox - but I can assure you:

    Joe Green has never been to Quebec.

    He hasn't a clue what's going on here.

    Harper does.

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 1:50 p.m.  

  • I think less than 15 seats in Quebec is far more likely for the Liberals than the Bloc, though I don't expect that will happen either. I think they'll get around 17 or 18.

    I think Joe Green is watching some other election campaign in a parallel universe where the Martin Liberals hadn't bolstered the seperatist cause through their incompetence.

    I'm a little confused how the Tories can be both vile "neo-cons" AND have moved to the left to court the NDP vote as Joe Green suggests. Perhaps left-leaning neo-cons can exist in this parallel election universe?

    Matt
    A Tory voter on Jan 23rd who is not an American card-carrying Republican in Calgary

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:47 p.m.  

  • has a new liberal gaffe happened yet today?

    must be a slow news day

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:45 p.m.  

  • my mistake. should've checked bourque first.

    RCMP PROBES TOP MARTIN LIB OVER $380K CONTRACT

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:46 p.m.  

  • It does seem that the MSM are giving the Liberals a bit more of a hard time in this election--- probably thanks to bloggers. They still have a ways to go tho' There is a rumour that Kieth Martin, Esquimalt--Juande Fuca, wouldn't take part in Paul Martins "Health Care" release because the emergency physician,Kieth Martin, feels we need a parallel private system.
    Can you imagine the media feeding frenzy that would have occured during previous elections if a Cons. physician candidate(e.g.Grant Hill) would have even contemplated such a thing!
    There was a few lines in to-days Calgary Herald.

    By Blogger Al, at 4:17 p.m.  

  • I saw Keith Martin on tv last night. He said "I don't think the voters of this riding want a trained seal".

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 5:14 p.m.  

  • Well... that's it for me - I won't be voting Liberal this election.

    Actually - I off to vote this weekend in the advanced polls.

    Dont want to change my mind later... its CPC for me and the missus.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:18 p.m.  

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