Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Free Falling

Holy Crap. Tonight's CTV poll numbers are downright shocking after Ekos and SES showed the race narrowing. Gregg has the race narrowing...the race for third place in the House, between Martin and Layton.

No link as of yet:

CPC 42
Lib 24


In Quebec, the Tories are up to 31%, with the Grits at 12%. 12%? 12%?!?!!?! It looks like those predictions by Alberta Martinites that the Liberals would be as strong in Alberta as in Quebec have finally come to fruition.

These numbers are so confusing that even the Hill & Knowlton seat predictor is confused, predicting 75 seats for the Bloc in the regional breakdown.

43 Comments:

  • Hmmm, those polls, ya got to hand it to 'em.

    By Blogger Dan McKenzie, at 10:21 PM  

  • This tells me that the Liberals are in a free-fall beyond belief.

    Sure, this could be a rogue poll, but it also could be a tell-tale sign of whats to come.

    Can't wait to see the effect this poll, plus the La Press endorsement does for the Conservatives.

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 10:25 PM  

  • I'm moving to Canada ... oh, wait.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:30 PM  

  • Coyne says the paragraph in the Globe piece, mentioning the 42-24, has been deleted. Rogue poll, or misread?

    By Anonymous Erik Sorenson, at 10:40 PM  

  • Martin is getting Mulroneyed.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:48 PM  

  • I have to give you credit, Bart. Your sense of humour in the face of total annihilation is admirable - and delicious!

    If only more (Blogging) Tories had your sense of humour.

    By Anonymous AlbertaAvenue - The Voice of Alberta, at 10:50 PM  

  • Anonymous: Did you mean Campbelled?

    By Blogger DJeffery, at 10:52 PM  

  • But look at the bright side:

    A) The Liberals will have zero representation in the two provinces that matter the most to Canada: Alberta & Québec

    B) The Liberals will have a chance to "go to the repair shop" (Layton) and spend a few years in the outhouse.

    C) They will re-emerge invigorated, reformed, cleansed, remodelled and with a brand-new leader. Above all, let's hope, they will have returned to their liberal roots and away from the statism the party has stood for up to now.

    Once C) has been completed, I'll be more than happy to vote for and support the Liberals again.

    By Anonymous AlbertaAvenue - The Voice of Alberta, at 10:56 PM  

  • I saw this heated commentary on CBC today...

    Rick Mercer's rant was pretty good. His Liberal and Conservative ad parodies were fun too.

    After watching Rick Mercer's rant, how do you think the man feels in his heart of hearts about the insult to the Canadian Forces, of which I'm willing to bet you a few are or have been his friends or family?

    When Rick said, "I can guarantee you that who ever created that ad has never met anyone in the Canadian Forces, has never been around anyone in the Canadian Forces," did you find yourself thinking that the Prime Minister of Canada should understand the Canadian Forces?

    Paul Martin said he approved the ad. Then he said he didn't, then he did again, etc. When Canadians have Forces in a combat area at Paul Martin's orders suffering casualties in Afghanistan (like they did 2-days ago), don't you think they have a right to a Prime Minister who makes an effort to be in touch with soldiers' needs and concerns - and doesn't profoundly insult them all?

    On a positive note, here is a beautiful kitten .

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 11:29 PM  

  • Or they lip along as the Liberal name is dragged through the mud for years as more is uncovered in the different scandals. Thats of course if the don't go bankrupt first.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:30 PM  

  • The Hamilton predictor doesn't seem to consider the possibility of Bloc support bleeding to the Conservatives, so while the Quebec numbers are excellent news for both Harper and the rest of Canada, they won't translate into as many seats as you might expect. And it bulks up the national numbers, but again with fewer seats than you might think.

    I'm sticking with my Conservatives 120 seats prediction, and the Liberals in 70 territory. Any further Conservative gains are going to come at the expense of the Bloc.

    Which is not a bad thing.

    By Blogger James Bow, at 11:31 PM  

  • I could be wrong, but I don't think this is a rogue poll.

    The fact that it shows Tory slippage in the GTA seems to confirm Decima and SES, so I think (or hoping at least) that this poll is for real.

    By Blogger Brandon, at 11:31 PM  

  • Not a rogue poll, at least as far as Quebec is concerned.

    When I first said the Liberals are finished in Quebec forever, it was pure hyperbole.

    Now, its unavoidable fact. Robillard is in trouble. Dion is in trouble. My lifelong liberal boss said to me today, "change is good." then he said, "but I want a Tory majority."

    He's totally disgusted with the Liberal campaign.

    Unbelievable.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 11:49 PM  

  • This is the 42-24 Link:

    http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060117/elxn_poll_060117/20060117?s_name=election2006

    By Anonymous Erik Sorenson, at 11:51 PM  

  • I find it pretty cheap when columnists attempt to be the first out of the gate in distancing themselves from the polls "just in case" with 6 days to go after relying on them for the bulk of their stories for 6 weeks. Anyone else?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:51 PM  

  • On Politics today, in response to Newman's question as to how this was all finally going to wash out...

    Robin Sears, with a very straight matter of fact look, said: Conservative majority, delivered by Quebec.

    This is really starting to take on 1984 proportions, me thinks.

    About 5 years (since Day crashed and burned in 2000) of pent up desire for real change becomes a bottle of Pepsi that's been shaking for all that time, and now the lids been popped off by Harper.

    By Anonymous springer, at 11:53 PM  

  • Clearly it's just another case of a Chretien-ite making trouble for the Martinis. Peter Donalo is an exec vp there.

    Hahaha.

    By Anonymous notbobchiarelli, at 12:00 AM  

  • They might realize this poll could be an outlier. This admission is quite telling:

    "However, Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent, said Tuesday night that other polls -- including, according to what he's been told, the party's internal polls -- show the Conservatives short of a majority.

    According to his conversations with party officials, "they expect they could be in for a bit of a dip, as Canadians wake up in shock to find they've supported Harper so significantly," he said."

    If anyone is familar with Zogby in the states, he often plays this same game, where he goes out away from the pack to look unique, and then leaves a caveat so he can move his poll back in line at the last minute.

    If the gap narrows, they will fall back on the above statement as though they expect it. I am not suggesting that this poll is complete bunk, but I doubt the Conservative gap has increased another 5% percent, especially with the other trends. I could be wrong, it is all speculation anyways.

    By Blogger Steve V, at 12:04 AM  

  • I would pay more attention to the SES numbers. They and Ipsos are usually more accurate than Strategic Counsel, which has probably tried to skew the results to motivate the Liberal's base If you look at the details, they took a sample size of Ontario of about 379. The GTA is usually treated as a separate region and X number of people are specifically polled in the GTA, but in this poll, it's a general Ontario count. They also lump BC in with "the West." By not specifically polling regions with high populations and large Liberal support, it will automatically skew the numbers down for the LPC.

    http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2006-01-16GMCTV%20Jan%2012,14,15%20Poll(Jan16).pdf

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:07 AM  

  • One of my favourite things about elections is the way it brings out all the amateur pollsters and statisticians, who, in their own minds at least, clearly know better than the professionals how to do their jobs.

    The beauty of it is how completely tri-partisan it all is: buried deep in the ranks of Liberal, Conservative and NDP supporters are all these would-be pollsters, eager to reveal the mistakes and agendas of the people trained to do the hard work of opinion research.

    Allan Gregg has only been doing this since the 1970s. His poll may at the extreme end of the margin error, but I think he has a bit of an idea about how to do one of these things.

    By Blogger DM, at 12:18 AM  

  • Don't know if its a rogue or not. Could simply be on the outer edge of the margin of error. If the internals are right, the big difference is the degree of Tory surge this poll is detecting in Quebec. Could the Tories end up with enough Quebec ridings to pull off a majority? It'll probably take this and a further NDP surge in Ontario to do it.

    Strange, strange election. And strange days ahead. Interesting to watch for a foreigner without a (strong) attachment to the outcome.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:35 AM  

  • Did anyone else cach Landslide Annies commens today. There was a report on Adler On lIne[I believe] that stated she is very upset with the way that party headquarters has been operating has severely hurt her re-elction chances. It also reported that the first time she had heard anything about removing the "notwithstanding clause" was when she heard Paul Martin on the televised debates. I guess that shoots down any theory that this was a long thought out Liberal policy. After all she is the deputy prime minister and a supposed expert on constitutional affairs. Paul Martin and his inner circle have dealt a deathly blow to the Liberal party of Canada by his total incompetence.

    By Anonymous Rick W, at 1:07 AM  

  • This is probably a rogue poll. Every other poll puts the Tories between 36-40% and Liberals 26-30%, otherwise within the margin of error. 1 in every 20 polls is a rogue poll, so this is probably it. Hopefully this scares enough soft Tories back to the Liberals, although I think the chance of the Liberals turning it around are not very good. But they should do better than this.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 1:10 AM  

  • "Hopefully this scares enough soft Tories back to the Liberals",

    Back to the sinking ship? Me thinks not.....

    By Blogger Platty, at 1:29 AM  

  • DM, don't be a retard. You cannot believe everything you read, especially since you have the duty not to in a democracy. It is important to keep a careful eye of the pollsters, or else they can start doing all sorts of fun stuff. If you thought push polling was bad, there are worse tricks to pull.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:50 AM  

  • Decima also released a poll tonight that confirmed a 10 point gap. The Star's running it on their website with a bogus headline that I won't even repeat...

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 2:24 AM  

  • Layton is the worst kind of opportunist.... He can't even answer... but he based his attacks on this...
    http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/layton060117.html

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20060116/ELXNSAMESEX16/National/Idx

    Harper and the law experts

    By Blogger lefti, at 2:31 AM  

  • Learn Why the "Next-door Rec-home Land-flip"
    Scandal Raises New Entitlement Concerns
    Astute Political Observers, Show Your Ability
    to Connect the Liberal Dots...

    It's true. The Hamilton Spectator reveals that Government House Leader Liberal Tony Valeri bought the house next door to his for $225k in April, '05.

    In '05 this house in question was assessed at $201k. Three months after buying it, Tony Valeri sold this house for $500k to "John Ng, son of Joe Ng, whose Hamilton-based engineering company has been a longtime supporter of the Liberals…"

    Who Else Would Classify a $275k Profit
    in 3-months a Great Investment?

    Tony Valeri and Prime Minister Paul Martin claim this was done ethically "with proper filings, proper disclosure." However, consider this fact: Valeri classified this house as a recreational property!

    Have You Ever Deserved a Nice Vacation?

    When you made your vacation plans, how excited do you feel your family would be if you told them you're travelling to sunny adventurous… next door?

    So why would he do that? Only Tony Valeri knows, but by classifying the property as "recreational property", it would be considered an "exempt asset" under section 10(1)(a) of the Conflict of Interest Code and therefore not subject to public declaration or divestment.

    Did Government House Leader Tony Valeri suddenly realize that the recreation home he purchased was only 25 metres away and decide to unload it? How did he manage to unload it so quickly for $299k over the assessed value to a Liberal Party supporter?

    Two Alleged Breaches of the Conflict of Interest
    Code: Amazingly Convenient Late Disclosure

    Also sect. 8 of the Conflict of Interest Code requires that all public office holders inform the Ethics Commissioner of "any material changes in his or her assets, liabilities and outside activities" within 30 days. In addition, s.14 has similar language: "Ministers of the Crown, ministers of state and parliamentary secretaries are required to publicly declare liabilities greater than or equal to $10,000 identifying their source and nature. "

    For some strange reason, Tony Valeri only declared his original $225k mortgage [liability] on July 26th, '06… 3-months after buying his next-door rec-home and flipping it to Liberal supporter, John Ng for a tidy $299k gain.

    Plenty here for the Canadian public and Conflict of Interest Commissioner Bernard Shapiro to chew on.

    Sources:
    January 13th Hamilton Spectator Article
    Jason Kenney Letter to Ethics Commissioner

    Remember: There may be an innocent explanation for all this; Tony Valeri can explain this to the Canadian people and I'll be the first one to be happy for him if there was no wrongdoing. I would like to learn how to make $275k in 3-months by selling my neighbour's house too.

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 5:59 AM  

  • * July 26th, '05

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 6:55 AM  

  • Dithers Does Desperate - saw his latest ad. Just him Martin and the camera. He looks beaten, old and tired.

    Contrast that to the energetic, hopeful, Harper vision for Canada and it's not hard to want to join the Conservative parade.

    Layton - I think it's entirely possible to see Layton in front of the Liberals in opposition.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:08 AM  

  • "It appears that Jack Layton can live with the Conservatives and a Conservative government, can you?"

    Yes. I'm also willing to bet that 33 million Canadians won't be committing hari-kari on Tuesday.

    By Blogger RGM, at 8:47 AM  

  • ""However, Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent, said Tuesday night that other polls -- including, according to what he's been told, the party's internal polls -- show the Conservatives short of a majority.

    According to his conversations with party officials, "they expect they could be in for a bit of a dip, as Canadians wake up in shock to find they've supported Harper so significantly," he said.""


    Yea like the Conservatives are going to admit to the possibility of a majority after last time... the numbers could show 75% support for the CPC and I bet you'll still see Harper saying. "oh I think we'll still get a minority"

    anyway.. as an engineer who deals with statistics regularly when you see polls diverge like todays it means 1 or 2 things.

    1. the way the poll is conducted is different enough to bias one side or the other... (I know the Blogging tories beleive that but I don't)

    2. there's alot of regional and geographical differences that mean that the small regional sample size is starting to bite the pollsters in the behind. (the most probably expanation)

    with varying polls of this kind you can't take the overall numbers to mean very much... (the sample sizes aren't representative enough to take into account the regional effects) but what you can draw is the commonalities...

    all of the polls are showing little CPC support in Toronto. All are showing massive CPC support rising in Quebec.

    the conclustion? Harper's majority will depend on how much support he can get from Bloc and Liberal supporters in Quebec... Ontario, the west, Atlantic are not basicly won/lost... Quebec will decide the fate of the next government... Again.

    By Blogger Sierra, at 9:41 AM  

  • Calgary Grit, though you'd be interested in this one.

    From the "when you think you've seen it all" dept:

    Call for probe into Tory blogs

    ALLAN WOODS CANWEST NEWS SERVICE

    QUEBEC – Elections Canada has been asked to investigate the Conservatives after allegations the party is overseeing a group that operates partisan on-line Web logs.

    Canada’s election watchdog received a complaint yesterday from a disaffected party member who claims the Tories tried to sway political opinion in cyberspace in the leadup to, and during, the election by setting up the popular “Blogging Tories” website.

    The site appears to be a coalition of like-minded individuals who have met in cyberspace to share their political opinions and express their frustrations with Paul Martin’s Liberals.

    But a Victoria man, Eugene Parks, and Toronto Tory dissident Carole Jamieson allege the venture may be in contravention of the Elections Act and thirdparty financing laws. They say it may have “unduly influenced the election coverage and potentially the outcome of this campaign.”

    “They’re using a third-party agency to get elected,” said Parks, a former Conservative supporter who now says he is an opponent. “It’s pure hypocrisy.”

    Parks said he was approached by senior Conservative MP Diane Ablonczy in December 2005 after a Tory caucus retreat in British Columbia and asked to head what he described as a preelection initiative on behalf of the party. “At the time I was somewhat willing, but my loyalty to the Conservative Party was somewhat shaky,” he said.

    A Conservative Party campaign official said yesterday there is “no connection” between the federal party and the website and chalked the complaint up to a party member who is still upset about the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance in 2003.

    Third-party election financing laws state that it is illegal for a group to spend more than $150,000 during an election period related to a general election. It can also spend no more than $3,000 of that money “to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a given electoral district.”

    The law also says that the third party cannot bypass the spending restrictions by “splitting itself into two or more third parties.”

    The Blogging Tories website does not hide its political preference and even includes some Conservative MPs, including finance critic Monte Solberg, among its members.

    But Parks’s allegation that the group was set up as a concerted effort by senior Conservatives to win the election casts the website in a controversial light. “They’re trying to make it look like these are individuals rather than a party effort,” Parks said.

    Parks passed on his information, which included email exchanges, to Jamieson, a former aide to former Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark. Jamieson confirmed she had forwarded all the information to the chief electoral officer, Jean-Pierre Kingsley, yesterday.

    By Anonymous springer, at 11:02 AM  

  • Dumbest Thing said this election award

    And it goes to Buzz, for this ....

    ---------------------------------

    Labour leader Buzz Hargrove says Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's attitude toward the provinces is essentially a separatist approach.

    "If you devolve all the powers to the provinces, what do you have left? His view of the country is a separatist view," Hargrove said as he campaigned alongside Paul Martin.

    He said Quebec voters should choose the Bloc Quebecois over the Conservatives.

    ---------------------------------

    The Conservatives want to give the Provinces more power to properly manage programs within their own jurisdictions, that's bad. So let's vote for a party that actually wants to break up the country! Stupid, stupid stupid!

    By Blogger CanadianTruth, at 11:14 AM  

  • GG et al, Andrew Coyne has the goods on the latest pronouncement from Paul Martin's new best friend, Sen. Buzz Hargrove.

    Thought you'd like to know.

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 11:16 AM  

  • Bart have you noticed that the vast majority of your readers are now Tories? At what point will you stop pretending to be a Liberal?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:47 PM  

  • Explain this away CG, you still seem to like Liberals.

    Relocation Services II: Dirty details revealed
    Two weeks ago I revealed questionable federal government contracts at various resorts around the world. It turns out that select members of our public service are making good use of these resorts...



    (7.5 megs - right click, save as)

    This video is also available here...

    Down in Kokomo
    Relocation Scandal
    Yet another scandal?

    A complete listing of international travel by public servants can be found here...

    International Travel

    All of this travel took place in one year.

    Interestingly, if you look at the contracts (here) in some of these exotic locations you will find that our public service is not exactly slumming it...


    Le Royal Mansour Meridien - Casablanca
    192 nights


    InterContinental V Centenario - Santo Domingo
    587 nights


    NH Krystal Cancun Hotel - Cancun, Mexico
    800 nights

    Essentially, there are 2.5 civil servants continuously in Cancun alone 365 days per year!!! Something isn't right about this.

    Paul Martin wants to know where Mr. Harper will cut spending. I can think of a few places! A few warm and inviting places!!!

    From Angry in the Great White North blog

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:52 PM  

  • Bart is as much of a Liberal as Paul Martin and then some...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:01 PM  

  • You still have at least one Liberal reader. After a few years of Tory deficits, loss of gov't services and war mongering, the Liberals will be back. I just hope it doesn't take a decade.

    As to the polls - all I know is that there will be one Liberal vote west of Lake Superior.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:20 PM  

  • OK, how's this?

    SES now has the Liberals closing the gap, 37 to 32 Tory lead. Ekos shows something in the middle - Tories at 37, Liberals at 27, NDP surging at 20 (well 19.6). Like I said in my post above, interesting times.

    The only thing I'd be certain of is that the Conservatives will win the most seats.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:55 PM  

  • One of my questions was answered: The Liberal Party returned $1,142,818.27 in taxpayer money that according to Judge Gomery was stolen as the result of "...what was at heart an elaborate kickback scheme" to the people of Canada. Thank you.

    Of course, I would have preferred if you hadn't have thought you were entitled to take the money in the first place.

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 3:45 PM  

  • Re: "Next-door Rec-home Land-flip"

    * correction - the actual gain would be $275k. $299k would be the amount of money over the '05 assessed value that house was sold at.

    By Anonymous Chris from Victoria, BC, at 5:18 PM  

  • It can't work as a matter of fact, that's exactly what I consider.

    By Anonymous отели в барселоне, at 10:04 AM  

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