Monday, November 28, 2005

The Starting Line

I'm undecided as to how much of a poll whore I intend to be this election. So feel free to comment on whether you'd prefer I go orgasmic over every 1% shift in the regional breakdowns ("OMG! The Liberals are up 2 points in Newfoundland!!!!"), or would rather I live in blind ignorance of the numbers on the ground ("my gut tells me the Liberals are doing well in Quebec!").

However, it's good to see where the parties are starting off from so I'll post the two polls which came out today:

Pollara
Liberal 36%
Conservative 31%
NDP 16%
BQ 14%

Environics
Liberal 35%
Conservative 30%
NDP 20%
BQ 14%
Green 1%


The Quebec numbers are just ugly for the Grits right now with the BQ at, or near, 60% in both polls. If those numbers hold (and they rarely do for the BQ), that would translate to a near sweep of the francophone ridings.

The Liberals are up by 12 in Ontario in the Environics poll, but only 4 in Pollara. Safe to say, if the Tories can somehow stay at (or above?) 38%, they'll be in very good shape come election day.

Most important, in my opinion, is that 17% are still undecided. So the campaign will matter.


Now, with all this in mind, I encourage everyone to head over to the second (annual?) James Bow election pool and cast their predictions. I'll be posting my predictions later this week...every day I go back and forth between who I think will come out on top.


UPDATE: The pollsters are surprisingly consistent. Allan Gregg has it as:

Liberal 35
Conservative 29
NDP 17
BQ 14
Green 5

The best news for the Conservatives? More voters feel the Liberals are harbouring a "secret agenda" than the Conservatives. Wow.

TUESDAY UPDATE: Ipsos has it 31-31.

7 Comments:

  • poll whore please. of course, by all means supplement the whoring with entries of other kinds

    By Anonymous keets, at 10:45 PM  

  • "Most important, in my opinion, is that 17% are still undecided. So the campaign will matter."

    or it will continue to bore that 17% have a depressingly low turnout.

    By Blogger angela, at 3:45 AM  

  • Here's a little anti-Martin rant I got on, based on Allen Gregg's finding about who's harbouring a hidden agenda:

    Martin's Hidden Agenda

    "Unlike the last election, when fears of a hidden agenda were said to have turned voters sour on the prospect of a Conservative Government, one-in-three of those polled now believe the Liberals are harbouring secrets.
    Only one-in-four now sees the Conservatives that way."

    Hmm. I wonder why that is?

    Maybe it's because Paul Martin was in favour of ballistic missile defence, before he was against it.

    Maybe it's because he was for the Iraq War, before he was against it.

    Maybe it's because he was against same-sex marriage, before he was for it.

    Maybe it's because he was against the Clarity Act, before he was for it.

    Maybe it's because he was against free trade, before he was for it.

    Maybe it's because he was against deficit reduction, before he was for it.

    Maybe it's because he was against the GST, and then kept it in place.

    Maybe it's because he rails against co-operation with the Bloc, when his Quebec lieutenant (yes, his top man in Quebec) is a frickin' co-founder of the Bloc himself.

    Maybe it's because he demonized Tory tax cuts, before unveiling even bigger tax cuts himself.

    Maybe it's because he presents himself as the saviour of public health care, when he gut it by the billions as Finance Minister.

    Maybe it's because Sheila Copps said he wanted to scrap the Canada Health Act.

    Maybe its because Sheila Copps said he wanted to scrap Old Age Pensions.

    Maybe it's because he turns a blind eye to health care privatization in Quebec. Because he attends a private clinic himself.

    Maybe it's because he declares an end to cronyism and patronage in Ottawa, and then appoints a disgraced guy like Art Eggleton to the Senate.

    Maybe it's because he says he was "Mad as Hell" about Adscam, while he hands out no-bid contracts to buddies like David Herle and the Earnscliffe Strategy Group.

    Maybe it's because he's presented three radically different budgets in the space of one year.

    Maybe it's because he condemns terrorism with his lips, and then knowingly attends fundraisers for Tamil terrorists.

    Maybe its because he deceived the Canadian public about the amount of federal money granted to his own company, Canada Steamship Lines, when he was Finance Minister. Only about $150 million by the way.

    Maybe its because he talks about slaying the democratic deficit when he goes on appointing unelected Senators. Because he stops at nothing to shield his star candidates, and then leaves Chretienite nomination candidates like Sheila Copps to the wolves. Because he dictatorially rescheduled opposition days, filibustered his own budget and ignored more than one vote of confidence this spring. Because he sent his chief of staff to buy the floor crossing of the Grewals. Because he did buy the floor crossing of Belinda Stronach. Because he scheduled a confidence vote around the surgery of a Tory MP fighting cancer. Because, in the words of the Globe & Mail, he's had the gall to "spit in the face of the Commons and call it respect.”

    Maybe it's because he's mused about using the notwithstanding clause on same-sex marriage, and then falsely accused the Conservatives of planning to do the very same.

    Maybe it's because he's opposed minimum sentences for criminials since day one, and all of a sudden has proposed minimum sentences for gun crime, just weeks before an election.

    Maybe it's because he paints himself as a patriotic Canadian, and yet has refused to fly our flag on his ships. All so he could violate Canadian labour law and pay third world wages of course.

    Maybe it's because he attacks the Tories on the environment, when his ships dump dangerous waste into the Great Lakes.

    Maybe it's because of these infamous words, that go to the to the heart of the trustworthyness of Paul Edgar Philippe Martin: "Screw the Red Book... Don't tell me what's in the Red Book. I wrote the goddamned thing. And I know that it's a lot of crap."

    I could go on, but alas, I don't have all year. Suffice it to say that Martin's core beliefs, his principles, his priorities, his agenda, has been as consistent as the solid state of an ice cube in a scorching desert, and about as clear as mud.

    In fact, he really has no core beliefs, no priorities. His is a government of endless improvisation, of expedience, of an endless obsession to stay in power.

    His agenda is so hidden even he doesn't know what it is. He has to keep looking to the prevailing political winds to find out.

    And thankfully, the Canadian people are coming to realize that. At precisely the right time.

    By Anonymous Brandon, at 6:16 AM  

  • Wow, that's quite the post Brandon and I can't say that I disagree with any of it. Two years ago Martin was someone I supported and high hopes for, I feel pretty duped right now.

    Someone wrote somewhere recently: Martin's political stance on any issue is the same as whoever he had his last conversation with. Basically this man seems to stand for NOTHING, absolutely incredible!

    As a former liberal who has had enough I will not be voting for them in this election and there is nothing that is going to change my mind.

    By Anonymous Anne (mad in Ontario), at 7:14 AM  

  • As far as the polls go, I think until mid January, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd is the only important thing to watch, not the numbers. With a 56 day capaign everyone has the opportunity to blow themselves up then engineer a resurection a couple of times at least.
    Don

    By Blogger Don, at 10:48 AM  

  • Ahh... polls. When I want to remind myself just how relevant the early ones are I just step into the wayback machine:

    CON 36%
    LIB 33%
    NDP 8%
    BQ 10%

    Comquest, Sept 14, 1993

    CON 35%
    LIB 35%
    NDP 6%
    BQ 11%

    Angus Reid, Sept 20, 1993

    FYI: the vote was on October 25, 1993

    (of course for fun I'm ommiting the 11% polled by the hitherto unknown "Reform Party" in both of these surveys - feel free to distribute those points as you see fit)

    I seem to recall something about the main party initially leading here not exactly ending up in "minority" territory.

    By Anonymous AZJ, at 12:40 PM  

  • The Quebec numbers are just ugly for the Grits right now with the BQ at, or near, 60% in both polls. If those numbers hold (and they rarely do for the BQ), that would translate to a near sweep of the francophone ridings.


    Call it the "ballot box bonus" that always appears in provicial campaigns. The PQ/BQ vote always falls 3-5% short of the last opinion polls, as closet federalists come home on election day. My guess, the BQ vote will be in the 52-55% range. The real quesion is whether PMPM can call all the federalists home to his leaking, creaking lifeboat?

    By Anonymous herringchoker, at 3:12 PM  

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