Thursday, November 24, 2005

Election Strategery: The Bloc

Ealier this week I previewed the NDP campaign. Today, I'll look at the Bloc. Keep in mind that a Calgarian isn't likely the best person to preview the BQ so the analysis might be a tad superficial. I know a lot of the usual suspects in the comments section are familiar with the Quebec situation so I'd invite them to add their two cents on the upcoming battle.


B...Q...

The 2004 Campaign: Popular opinion in 2003 was that the BQ was on death's door and that Paul would sweep across the province as part of his 200 seat rout. Then Adscam arrived, like mana from heaven. Duceppe had an easy ride during the campaign and drew very positive reviews outside Quebec from his performance in the debates.

The Result: 54 seats, tying a BQ record, and 49% of the vote.

Since Then: The BQ have been itching for an election since the Brault bombshell. They've been used as convenient targets by both the Liberals and Conservatives ("The Liberals are working with the Bloc!" "The Tories and BQ are in bed!") but their popularity in La Belle Province has never been higher. It's no wonder that Gilles Duceppe turned down a chance to become PQ leader.

The Leader: The aforementioned Gilles Duceppe is the elder statesman of the current party leaders. After a tough 2000 campaign, Duceppe's popularity has grown, both in Quebec, and in the ROC.

The Team: The BQ have been recruiting more and more ethnic candidates to try and broaden their appeal. They have a haitian lady running against Pierre Pettigrew, no doubt to try and counteract the Michaelle Jean effect.

Unofficial Slogan: "Maudit Libéraux!"

Campaign Song: "Breaking Up Is Hard To Do"

The Issue: Adscam and nothing but. Keep André Boisclair out of sight and downplay separatism. Just recycle the 2004 campaign book and Duceppe will be fine.

Other Advice: This one looks like an slam dunk so it's hard to see Duceppe messing up. Because of that, I can only offer four pieces of advice:

1. Avoid hairnets at all cost
2. Make sure there is always a microphone in front of Jean Lapierre
2. Don't kill any puppies in public
3. Do cocaine during the campaign. Quebecers dig that in their leaders.


Prediction: The BQ won't lose any ground and Pettigrew, Frulla, and maybe even Jean Lapierre could be major killings for them this campaign. I'd say 55 to 60 seats seems like a reasonable prediction.

17 Comments:

  • I am not sure Pettigrew is going to run. I think there are several Quebec Liberals who will announce after dissolution that they will not be running, and Pettigrew is one of the most common names thrown around. The theory being that losing to the BQ will damage them more than sitting out a minority parliament, especially o fthere is a Liberal leadership campaign.

    By Blogger OttawaCon, at 11:10 PM  

  • I've got the Bloc a little higher...64-66 seats, including picking off their targeted three (Lapierre/Frulla/Pettigrew).

    By Blogger The Hack, at 11:39 PM  

  • Stumbled onto this site. Thought I would say hi.

    By Blogger Tawcan, at 2:25 AM  

  • Seems pretty alright, except the slogan, which should be "Maudits Libéraux."

    By Blogger J. Kelly, at 2:39 AM  

  • The BQ's slogan in 2004 was genius, "Un parti propre au Quebec" playing on the themes of cleaning up government and looking out for Quebec's interests.

    By Blogger savage, at 10:27 AM  

  • Good except the Boisclair call. He's popular in Quebec especially for those who watch/read the english media's portrayal of him as a cokehead. Their campaign only has to be about Quebec so no need to worry about Boisclair. Oddly, I think the BQ is going to pick up some anglo/immigrant votes this time round as the anti-Liberal sentiment is at an all-time high. Best thing that could happen for Quebec sovreignty would be a Liberal government in Ottawa and I think Duceppe and Boisclair know it. If there's a Martin gov't watch for the punches to start flying - could mean a +50% vote for independence in the next referendum, as Quebecois would totally lose confidence in english Canada.

    PS - watch for Chretien Liberals voting BQ to stick it to Martin.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:19 AM  

  • Pettigrew has to run, especially if he hopes to take over Maritn's job one day. I don't see how Martin can continue on as leader of the Liberals if he comes back with another minority government. I'm certain the knives will be coming out for Martin before the next election rolls around.

    By Anonymous Bobo, at 11:41 AM  

  • The Bloc would be wise to take advantage of these numbers to extensively ID the vote. I know it's not sexy but this data will be gold on the ground during the next provincial campaign and referendum.

    Other than that Mr. Duceppe should just keep doing what he's doing.

    By Blogger thoughT particleS, at 11:48 AM  

  • If Martin wins another minority Harper will quit. Do the liberals dump the leader while the Tories are in a leadership fight. Do they do it after when the Tories have a new leader?

    The liberals knives might be out for Martin but I doubt much would come of it, unless martin decides to leave. The cabal around him seems unlikely to be content to go quietly - they've only had two years in power after striving for more than a decade. Plus his people seem to know something about leadership fights.

    Another liberal minority will not produce a change in leader. Not for at least two years unless Martin is defeated in his riding.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:05 PM  

  • ottawacon:

    Pierre Pettigrew has already been nominated in Papineau.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:26 PM  

  • Boisclair has already announced that he will be dedicating all of his energies and resources to help the Bloc defeat Liberals. The separatists would love to see a Conservative minority and, in the same way that the NDP pushes for spending on social programs, the BQ's bargaining chip will be amending the Clarity Act. Will Harper be opened to this? He should be asked the question during the campaign.
    Loraine King

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:04 PM  

  • I was going to suggest that he not drink Heineken in an area of Montreal known for domestic microbrews, but it didn't seem to matter in 2004, now, did it?

    By Blogger Jarrett, at 4:50 PM  

  • All Pettigrew, Frulla, and Lapierre will win, turst me on that one. These guys are some of the best the Liberals have whether in public speeches or campaigning. Their faces have been in the news all the time,a dn they are ministers there's a good chance they'll be back. Also, I am not sure if Marc Garneau will win, but expect the Bloc to flop a couple of times. Liberals 112, Conservatives 112, NDP 34, Bloc 49, 1 Independent. Those are my bets though I'd have to study them better again...I'll have a reply next week sometime. You guys are missing something else too. There is a good chance that the Cons will screw up near the end, and the Bloc might screw up too. I Aam sure we'll definitely win

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:22 PM  

  • "Je me souviens du scandale commandites"

    How do you spend the campaign warning people that victory for the Bloc will lead them down the fruitless road of separation and not remind them every step of the way about Gomery?

    That is what the Liberals face in Quebec. Not to mention a seasoned campaigner in Duceppe.

    By Blogger thoughT particleS, at 5:53 PM  

  • The rumour that is going around Ottawa right now has two variations:

    i) Pettigrew will announce on Tuesday that he is bowing out.

    ii) Martin hasn't accepted Pettigrew's nomination papers.

    neither of which are exclusive. There are also rumours of a negotiated exit..

    By Blogger OttawaCon, at 11:36 PM  

  • Interesting rumour OttawaCon.

    I think everyone knows Pettigrew won't win if he runs so he's been looking for a way out for a long time. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see him step down.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:50 AM  

  • Yeah...I'm anglo and I would be tempted to vote BQ. Although I don't live in Quebec...and I wouldn't vote for them in the end. The Quebecois are making air castles in their heads that include non corrupted government - HA! That said, I think Gilles Duceppe is probably the most intelligent party leader, and if not, at least the best campaigner.

    By Anonymous kate, at 4:41 PM  

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