Bonus Advice
Steve; There's only one thing that could possibly be worse than triggering an election over the Kyoto Accord, a popular piece of legislation in Ontario and Quebec. And that would be triggering an election over a budget that you said wasn't worth triggering an election over. Come on! Even Joe Clark has better political sense than this.
Monday Morning UPDATE: "Liberals Fear Spring Election" says the Globe headline. Yeah right, Lap. You're telling me you'd rather run an election on sponsorship in the fall than on Kyoto in the spring? With any other strategist, I'd say they were full of it. For someone with Jean Lapierre's political savvy...hard to say.
Steve; There's only one thing that could possibly be worse than triggering an election over the Kyoto Accord, a popular piece of legislation in Ontario and Quebec. And that would be triggering an election over a budget that you said wasn't worth triggering an election over. Come on! Even Joe Clark has better political sense than this.
Monday Morning UPDATE: "Liberals Fear Spring Election" says the Globe headline. Yeah right, Lap. You're telling me you'd rather run an election on sponsorship in the fall than on Kyoto in the spring? With any other strategist, I'd say they were full of it. For someone with Jean Lapierre's political savvy...hard to say.
posted by calgarygrit at
12:20 p.m.
8 Comments:
I believe it would be a wise for Prime Minister Martin to force this vote to trigger an election. Harper will either need to capitulate or fight the next election as the anti-Kyoto candidate. Neither is good for him.
The Bloc will have nothing new with which to fight the election. Duceppe will repeat his Liberal corruption line and the result will depend upon the mood of Quebecers on election day. If Quebecers are afraid of an anti-Kyoto, anti-SSM, pro-BMD conservative majority the Bloc may well lose seats.
The NDP will be in the same boat as the Bloc. They may lose votes because their supporters are afraid of a CPC majority.
Watch for Harper to announce his “retirement” as leader of the CPC days after losing the election. Pure prediction yes, but prediction based upon years of watching Harper quit whenever things don’t go his way.
Watch for Harper to announce his “retirement” as leader of the CPC days after losing the election. Pure prediction yes, but prediction based upon years of watching Harper quit whenever things don’t go his way.
By
Psychols, at 8:28 p.m.
Re Matt's comment.
It has nothing to do with 2 can kicks. A party leader can reasonably expect to remain until he or she loses at a leadership convention. Harper will probably not. In fact, I would not be surprised if he resigned and forced a bi-election here in Calgary S.W. Ask Jim Hawkes or Preston Manning how hard it is to keep Harper around when policy is not going his way.
By
Psychols, at 4:02 a.m.
Yeah, I tend to think the Bloc is going to do very well in Quebec, regardless of when the election is called. The Gomery Inquiry is the hot "teleroman" of the season right now and Ducceppe is clearly the most capable of the four leaders.
As for Harper's leadership, I think there's sort of an understanding that he's gone if he loses the next election. My guess is he'd resign on his own because if it ever came to a leadership review vote, he'd be in deep trouble. Martin is likely in the same boat - if he loses the next election, the knives will be out for him.
By
calgarygrit, at 3:11 p.m.
An election today would leave pretty much the same result. A handful of seats might jostle around (and the Tories would pick up a couple more overall in the Maritimes where their numbers are much stronger than six months ago), but for the most part, the status quo would remain.
Quebec would stay the same or get worst for the Liberals. Ontario would stay the same or get slightly better.
The West would stay quite the same.
By
The Hack, at 8:27 p.m.
On Quebec, the Gomery Inquiry may be keeping the scandal in the Quebec public eye but it was in the public eye during the last election. Whether or not it will result in more support for the Bloc is the question. The Bloc may hold on to its 50% and 54 seats, but gaining seats is no easy feat.
By
Psychols, at 3:06 a.m.
Hey iloveLaP - if Harper spends campaign weekends campaigning in AB - you can bet they'll be in Edmonton Centre, Beaumont, Strathcona, & East - Calgary and Ruralberta is a lock for him. :P
By
daveberta, at 2:27 a.m.
I tend to agree with LaP here. Any time spent in Alberta will do Harper more harm than good. There are likely 3...maybe 4 swing seats in the entire province. How many do you think there are in Ontario? 30?
The more time Harper spends in Alberta, the more he'll be seen as an Albertan. That's the last thing he wants in a campaign where the Liberals are going to brand him as a "scary right wing extremist".
By
calgarygrit, at 1:00 p.m.
agreed - I don't know why he would spend any time here - but if he did...
D :)
By
daveberta, at 1:22 p.m.
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