Friday, March 25, 2005

Bonus Advice

Steve; There's only one thing that could possibly be worse than triggering an election over the Kyoto Accord, a popular piece of legislation in Ontario and Quebec. And that would be triggering an election over a budget that you said wasn't worth triggering an election over. Come on! Even Joe Clark has better political sense than this.

Monday Morning UPDATE: "Liberals Fear Spring Election" says the Globe headline. Yeah right, Lap. You're telling me you'd rather run an election on sponsorship in the fall than on Kyoto in the spring? With any other strategist, I'd say they were full of it. For someone with Jean Lapierre's political savvy...hard to say.


  • "Welcome back. If you're just joining us in our election night coverage, we at CTV have just predicted that Paul Martin's Liberals will form a majority government tonight based on voting results being reported across the country.

    As pollsters have predicted, the voting patterns have almost entirely returned to the regional lines seen prior to the formation of the Conservative party. Liberals have taken Ontario, the Maritimes, and much of Quebec easily, with Stephen Harper's Tories winning the Western provinces. The NDP, marginalized in the Kyoto debate, has had a very dissappointing night with leader Jack Layton losing his seat to returning Liberal Dennis Mills.

    Harper himself, it would seem, has failed in his promise to succeed beyond the West and our commentators tonight are predicting he will not last six more months as leader..."

    By Blogger JoshP, at 1:57 PM  

  • HAHA, Liberals take much of Quebec. I am a Lapierre fan, I have always thought we needed more strong federalists like him in government, but please, Libs take much of Quebec. My prediction for next election is 120-108 Libs. HAHA Libs winning in La Belle Province.

    By Blogger iloveLaP, at 4:25 PM  

  • The next election will not be fought in Quebec under the same Sponsorship environment that the most recent one was.

    And it seems to me that the BQ has nowhere to go but down, especially now that Quebeckers are seeing how they're really not that productive in the minority parliament.

    By Blogger JoshP, at 5:01 PM  

  • I believe it would be a wise for Prime Minister Martin to force this vote to trigger an election. Harper will either need to capitulate or fight the next election as the anti-Kyoto candidate. Neither is good for him.

    The Bloc will have nothing new with which to fight the election. Duceppe will repeat his Liberal corruption line and the result will depend upon the mood of Quebecers on election day. If Quebecers are afraid of an anti-Kyoto, anti-SSM, pro-BMD conservative majority the Bloc may well lose seats.

    The NDP will be in the same boat as the Bloc. They may lose votes because their supporters are afraid of a CPC majority.

    Watch for Harper to announce his “retirement” as leader of the CPC days after losing the election. Pure prediction yes, but prediction based upon years of watching Harper quit whenever things don’t go his way.

    Watch for Harper to announce his “retirement” as leader of the CPC days after losing the election. Pure prediction yes, but prediction based upon years of watching Harper quit whenever things don’t go his way.

    By Blogger Psychols, at 8:28 PM  

  • re. Harper quitting: you only get two kicks at the can. old rule, nothing to do with Harper.

    re. the Bloc doing worse than last time: come join me in Quebec. I'll buy you a beer. We can read La Presse, Le Devoir, and the Gazette together, then marvel at how everyone here is riveted at the juicy, local, Gomery stories. Those Charest aides that resigned last week owing to the adscam cash in their pockets? Those guys working for the universally reviled Liberal provincial government? The Gazette's giant "Liberal organizer got paid $5M" headline of last week? That got noticed. Don't count Quebec in boys.

    By Blogger matt, at 12:44 AM  

  • Re Matt's comment.

    It has nothing to do with 2 can kicks. A party leader can reasonably expect to remain until he or she loses at a leadership convention. Harper will probably not. In fact, I would not be surprised if he resigned and forced a bi-election here in Calgary S.W. Ask Jim Hawkes or Preston Manning how hard it is to keep Harper around when policy is not going his way.

    By Blogger Psychols, at 4:02 AM  

  • Yeah, I tend to think the Bloc is going to do very well in Quebec, regardless of when the election is called. The Gomery Inquiry is the hot "teleroman" of the season right now and Ducceppe is clearly the most capable of the four leaders.

    As for Harper's leadership, I think there's sort of an understanding that he's gone if he loses the next election. My guess is he'd resign on his own because if it ever came to a leadership review vote, he'd be in deep trouble. Martin is likely in the same boat - if he loses the next election, the knives will be out for him.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:11 PM  

  • An election today would leave pretty much the same result. A handful of seats might jostle around (and the Tories would pick up a couple more overall in the Maritimes where their numbers are much stronger than six months ago), but for the most part, the status quo would remain.

    Quebec would stay the same or get worst for the Liberals. Ontario would stay the same or get slightly better.

    The West would stay quite the same.

    By Blogger The Hack, at 8:27 PM  

  • On Quebec, the Gomery Inquiry may be keeping the scandal in the Quebec public eye but it was in the public eye during the last election. Whether or not it will result in more support for the Bloc is the question. The Bloc may hold on to its 50% and 54 seats, but gaining seats is no easy feat.

    By Blogger Psychols, at 3:06 AM  

  • well i put the chances of the Libs gaining more than 3 seats in quebec at 1%, I would put the chaces of them losing more than 3 at 30% and I would put the chances of them losing more than 5 at 10%. I agree it is pretty hard for the Libs to do worse than last election. As for swing seats, the Libs won 5 of their whopping 21 by under 5% (generally considered the swing margin for seats, sometimes as high as 10) while the Bloc won 2 out of their 54 by under 5%. I think the bloc is still strong like ox in quebec.

    as for Ontario, I think Harper has a winning issue in rural ontario in same-sex marriage, a real winning issue. alieen caroll in barrie, watch out winning by 2.6% is not much, jerry pickard 0.9% sliver in chatham, 0.3 in Middlesex, oh oh, 0.5 in northumberland

    and I agree, the tories are going to pick up in the maritimes as well. I think Harper learned his lesson last election, I would be shocked to see him Alberta much next election, if at all. It will likely be All Ontario, All the time, a bit in BC and maybe take his days off in ALberta,

    and as far as harper being scary, he has the same position as the Libs on abortion, same on health care, marginal difference on health care, big differences on day care and kyoto, two issues that I do not think matter much to his base and affect individuals he would never get anyway. The environment is a low priority of canadians, general elections prove that time after time. I think the scary card is going to be a lot harder to play this time, especially with John Efford cutting people's severance because he dislikes them, we have our own Human Rights problems. And just wait until the Gomery inquiry breaks, then we will have real problems, thanks Paul

    By Blogger iloveLaP, at 1:57 PM  

  • two thoughts:
    1. any swing seats will go to whoever owns the media and controls their messages. last time harper had the edge with the media (see mcgill study), and his wingnuts mp's threw that gift away. this time I think he still has a relative edge in the media, if attenuated. SSM and Charter rights will be huge. Also two tier health care. And elected judges (dumb dumb dumb Tory policy from the convention). But Harper has Kyoto (if and only if it's done right; this should be a winning issue for Martin if they would just articulate substantive content to a generally popular commitment - Harper can legitimately say he'll defeat a carte blanche budget. he'll lose badly on defeating a 'save mother earth' budget), Gomery, and stuff like Efford.

    2. where is the media with respect to Efford? CBC is pretty liberal friendly, and yet they're the only ones giving the story any play. This is the kind of ethical quandry that merits public debate and scrutiny, a public trust given to the media.

    By Blogger matt, at 7:34 PM  

  • Just two points, the policy of electing judges will never see the light of day, and if it does two equally bad political policies from the Libs (more hookers and more pot) will also see the light of day.
    As for why Efford does not have more coverage, I have no idea, the guy is an idiot. But it should be out there more, how he got into cabinet I will never know

    By Blogger iloveLaP, at 7:57 PM  

  • I love the idea of an elected judge smoking a doob on an evening stroll, carefully choosing his nocturnal companion (not really, just a funny image).

    Although to be fair, it wouldn't be that alien; just combining California and Holland.

    By Blogger matt, at 12:47 AM  

  • Hey iloveLaP - if Harper spends campaign weekends campaigning in AB - you can bet they'll be in Edmonton Centre, Beaumont, Strathcona, & East - Calgary and Ruralberta is a lock for him. :P

    By Blogger daveberta, at 2:27 AM  

  • daveberta, I am saying that he should never campaign in alberta, don't knock on a door, at most do one speech, at the absolute most. I think he could ignore alberta completely and get at the absolute worst 26 seats HAHA, maybe 25 but that would be a magnificant campaign by the libs, the glory days of 4 seats that we had under Chretien are long gone.

    By Blogger iloveLaP, at 12:30 PM  

  • I tend to agree with LaP here. Any time spent in Alberta will do Harper more harm than good. There are likely 3...maybe 4 swing seats in the entire province. How many do you think there are in Ontario? 30?

    The more time Harper spends in Alberta, the more he'll be seen as an Albertan. That's the last thing he wants in a campaign where the Liberals are going to brand him as a "scary right wing extremist".

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:00 PM  

  • agreed - I don't know why he would spend any time here - but if he did...

    D :)

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