Friday, November 17, 2006

Great Moments in Prognostication

With the Liberal convention under two weeks away, I thought it might be fun to take a stroll down memory lane...

July 2005: Calgary Grit projects a race anyone of four people could win...those four people being Manley, McKenna, Brison, and Cauchon. Also declares that Michael Ignatieff's experience in Cabinet will make it or break it for him...

January 2006: Andrew Coyne polls his readers. 47% think Frank McKenna will win, 59% of Tories want Belinda Stronach to win, and the field is split on who the Liberals should elect.

January 2006: Vijay Sappani projects the convention right down to the final ballot. Volpe, Cauchon, McKenna, and Ignatieff are the final four standing.

January 2006: The Draft Paul Hellyer Campaign gathers steam and momentum.

January 2006: Jason Cherniak declares that Stephane Dion isn't emotive enough to become leader.

January 2006: Paul Wells has shocking news on who isn't running.

February 2006: Paul Wells inadvertently kills the Draft Dion blog.

February 2006: It's widely reported that Gerard Kennedy will not run for Liberal leadership.

February 2006: SES declares Ken Dryden is the candidate Ontarians most want to win.

February 2006: Calgary Grit takes a look at some other long-shot candidates.

April 2006: Clifford Blais, Ruby Dhalla, and Paul Zed are among the "declared candidates" to speak at the LPCA leadership forum in Edmonton.

April 2006: The Globe & Mail lists Scott Brison and Ken Dryden as being in the "top tier" of six Liberal candidates capable of winning.

July 2006: The Volpe campaign claims to have signed up more Liberals than anyone else and the Globe reports that Volpe leads in Quebec. Jimmy K claims 35,000 to 37,000 new sign ups which puts Volpe "pretty well in the lead".

September 2006: A Frodo poll shows that the overwhelming choice of Canadians is...Ken Dryden.

September 2006: The Strategic Council polls Liberals and projects Super Wekend with Michael Ignatieff at 19% and Gerard Kennedy at 9%.

The moral of the story? It's been a hugely unpredictable race and it's going to stay unpredictable right down to the final ballot on December 2nd.


  • The "Frodo" poll as you call it, like the SES one in February and others, was never a prognostication of the leadership outcome. It was a measure of opinion among the public at large, the overhwelming majority of whom, aren't and never would have been participants in this internal party process. I bet if you polled Canadians today on the same question you'd get a similar result.

    By Blogger Mark, at 7:06 p.m.  

  • Hilarious!

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 8:25 p.m.  

  • Please god ... just make it end.

    So many decent Liberal bloggers have been unreadable for so long due to their obsession with this inane race.

    MAKE IT STOP!!!!!

    By Blogger Andrew, at 8:41 p.m.  

  • mark; Yeah, those were projections. I just tossed up a few "highlights" from the race - not everything on it is a prediction.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:30 p.m.  

  • Haha,

    Brilliant CG. I loved Cherniak dousing Dion. Did he ever answer for that?

    By Blogger Olaf, at 9:53 p.m.  

  • CLASSIC. Thanks for the laughs CG :)

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 10:04 p.m.  

  • Good one Bart. Great chuckles.

    Here's another one:
    March 2006, TDH predicts Kennedy is the guy.

    The What Do I Know Grit.

    By Blogger James Curran, at 11:12 p.m.  

  • Looking at the history of this race, I can only laugh. You guys think Harper is scary?

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha etc.

    By Blogger Candace, at 2:14 a.m.  

  • Wow, that was great - I just re-read through Long Shot Candidates, and found some of my first posts on Ah, those were the days.

    I was just thinking this week about Cherniak dissing Dion.

    If I wanted to be nasty, I'd suggest an open thread nominating Worst Fall From Grace For A Liberal Blogger Too Enamoured With Their Candidate To See Reason Any Longer. I too can't wait for this horrible race to be over and done with.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:41 a.m.  

  •'s difficult to predict...but that shouldn't deter a person from saying whatever the hell comes to mind...which is why...with complete confidence...I predict a draft Jean movement begins on the Convention floor...and ends with everyone agreeing that the last 5 years never happened...and that Chretien was and always has been the leader of the party.

    By Blogger Leny Vilekoskytch, at 3:00 p.m.  

  • Well CG under those cicumstances, the predictions still look good with Iggy looking good to come to the final ballot and Volpe coming well under the 10% mark.
    Rae and Kennedy spoiled the party for a big Iggy win.Who expected Rae to betray his long time friend and Kennedy is a loss for Ontario but a gain for Canada.Atleast let us say one thing that this was a true democractic process and didn't have a 'board' to make decisions.

    By Blogger Rural Empowerment Program, at 7:31 p.m.  

  • One more prediction:

    CalgaryGrit will take a ride on the Orient Express. His body will be found with multiple stab wounds, but no fingerprints on the knife.

    Among the passengers on the train wil be Vijay Sappani, Jason Cherniak, Paul Wells, David Herle and Allan Gregg.

    All will proclaim their innocence. Wells will argue that he called CG indispensible, therefore he could hardly have disposed of him.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 8:29 p.m.  

  • vijay said
    Atleast let us say one thing that this was a true democractic process and didn't have a 'board' to make decisions.

    Please, tell me you are being sarcastic vijay. this has been a rigged contest from day one. watch what the board does in the next 10 days and at the convention floor when they see how few delegates and alternates actually go to montreal

    By Blogger kenlister1, at 8:37 p.m.  

  • "watch what the board does in the next 10 days and at the convention floor when they see how few delegates and alternates actually go to montreal"-KTR

    I think everyone knows that the challenge to some candidates esp Rae is that their delegates from far off places might not show up. If you look at delegate fundraising Iggy delegates have done the best so far. I hear Kennedy folks are also doing well, but the board has nothing to do with this, altleast to the best of my knowledge.

    Every team has put special groups to find alternate solutions and jockeying depending on the turn out at the convention. So lets see how it turns out. This is going to a tough , tough race and it's anyones chance among the top four.

    By Blogger Rural Empowerment Program, at 9:49 a.m.  

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