Great Moments in Prognostication
July 2005: Calgary Grit projects a race anyone of four people could win...those four people being Manley, McKenna, Brison, and Cauchon. Also declares that Michael Ignatieff's experience in Cabinet will make it or break it for him...
January 2006: Andrew Coyne polls his readers. 47% think Frank McKenna will win, 59% of Tories want Belinda Stronach to win, and the field is split on who the Liberals should elect.
January 2006: Vijay Sappani projects the convention right down to the final ballot. Volpe, Cauchon, McKenna, and Ignatieff are the final four standing.
January 2006: The Draft Paul Hellyer Campaign gathers steam and momentum.
January 2006: Jason Cherniak declares that Stephane Dion isn't emotive enough to become leader.
January 2006: Paul Wells has shocking news on who isn't running.
February 2006: Paul Wells inadvertently kills the Draft Dion blog.
February 2006: It's widely reported that Gerard Kennedy will not run for Liberal leadership.
February 2006: SES declares Ken Dryden is the candidate Ontarians most want to win.
February 2006: Calgary Grit takes a look at some other long-shot candidates.
April 2006: Clifford Blais, Ruby Dhalla, and Paul Zed are among the "declared candidates" to speak at the LPCA leadership forum in Edmonton.
April 2006: The Globe & Mail lists Scott Brison and Ken Dryden as being in the "top tier" of six Liberal candidates capable of winning.
July 2006: The Volpe campaign claims to have signed up more Liberals than anyone else and the Globe reports that Volpe leads in Quebec. Jimmy K claims 35,000 to 37,000 new sign ups which puts Volpe "pretty well in the lead".
September 2006: A Frodo poll shows that the overwhelming choice of Canadians is...Ken Dryden.
September 2006: The Strategic Council polls Liberals and projects Super Wekend with Michael Ignatieff at 19% and Gerard Kennedy at 9%.
The moral of the story? It's been a hugely unpredictable race and it's going to stay unpredictable right down to the final ballot on December 2nd.