Thursday, January 05, 2006

Zut Alors

The Tories are jumping up in the polls, and it's on the strength of...wait for it...Quebec?!?!

Leger
BQ 45
Lib 26
CPC 16
NDP 10

SES
BQ 51
Lib 24
CPC 15
NDP 7

Ekos
BQ 44
Lib 22
CPC 20
NDP 10

While the Ekos may be an outlier, it certainly appears that Harper is making a dent in Quebec.


UPDATE: I tend to think this won't help the Quebec campaign for the Grits. Neither will the types of news days like today. CTV news described PMPM's post sec announcement as "A tired and confused Paul Martin announced his party's previously leaked platform in a half empty gymnasium." (paraphrasing)

posted by calgarygrit at 9:07 p.m.

34 Comments:

  • Even though I hate to see Harper's government, this approach actually show that there are many people in quebec, who support federalism but vote Bloc because they are annoyed at the Liberals. I believe liberals should try harder to get the attention of the quebec voters.

    By Blogger AT, at 9:19 p.m.  

  • Is arnab joking?

    Of course people who are federalist vote for the Bloc.

    See, hopefully, after this election, we Quebeckers won't be patronized by the Liberal-Separatist symbiosis that forces federalists to vote Liberal even if they are revolted with Liberal policies and practices.

    I believe the Liberals should be reduced to fringe party status in Quebec because they have so smeared the federalist cause in Quebec.

    Tell me, where you at the unity rally during the 95 refendum?

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 10:12 p.m.  

  • Well, since it is the Bloc losing support, not the Liberals, I don't think this will result in seat gains for the Cons. And I am sure that Gilles is going to come out guns ablazing taking down the Cons in Quebec... I mean, he must be sitting on wads of cash just waiting to be spent. Though, it could be that ADQistes have finally decided to support the right-of-center party on the federal level instead of supporting the Bloc.

    By Blogger Justin, at 11:19 p.m.  

  • its just not stopping. the only ones who can stop the momentum are the tories themselves. its a toss-up that in the last election the tories imploded rather than paul martin doing anything (musing majority, child-porn, retreating to fortress alberta). the only ace-in-the-hole the libs had last time was the scary, fearmongering label stuck on Harper.

    So far, the only difference between this election and the last is that voters no longer see Harper and tories as scary. Is it just me or does everywhere I look in the media, the Tories are featured prominently over the Liberals (Harper's pictures look flattering and Martin looks positively ill). At this point in the campaign, unless monte solberg doesn't eat a puppy on TV, Martin is going to have a hard time arresting Tory momentum by himself. He needs their help to do it.

    Any strategist will tell you that banking on your opponents making a mistake rather than doing anything yourself increases the chance of your failure. Banking on your opponents making it twice is plain inept. They should've had a plan B. Of course, there's still time for the Tories to implode.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:34 p.m.  

  • Justin, what are you thinking? Support for the Bloc bleeding to the CPC would be, in case you are completely incapable of intelligent thought on your own, federalists that were voting Bloc because they were disgusted by the LPC. Those that left the LPC for the CPC earlier (bumping them up last week) were the federalists refusing to vote Bloc but looking for a home other than the LPC.

    My God, the arrogance of Liberals can still astound me.

    By Blogger Candace, at 11:34 p.m.  

  • Actually the polls do show some Lib droppage as well.

    Some from the Libs, more from the Bloq, spells disaster for the Libs.

    Directly, but also a spiral downward, wherein Ontario voters start to see the CPC as a real federalist option, will also move toward the CPC.

    Remember, just a couple of weeks ago, it was simply assumed that the CPC wouldn't even get a seat in Quebec. Now they're at least looking at three. Once those numbers start to tip, watch out.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:48 p.m.  

  • The significant shift in Quebec to the Cons may have a snowball effect. Those in Ontario who's chief concern is national unity may find the cons more palatable, if this happens look for a corresponding shift towards the cons in Ontario. This development also neutralizes PMPM's "Captian Canada" routine. Unfortunately for the Libs this leaves him with "values" as his campaign focus. I suspect this may be a hard sell with the Mounties chasing PM and his ministers hither and yon. Oh how the mighty have fallen!!

    Syncro

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 11:52 p.m.  

  • 20% of Quebec = 5 to 7 seats mathmatically.

    How bout the newest scandal eh?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060105.woptions0105/BNStory/Front/

    What happened to landslide Annie tonight anyway, she looked like Duffy stuffed a canary in her mouth when he brought up the "Options Scandal" Which will be coming to a Globe and Mail Press Release at the link above for you.

    Being a Tory, I'm liken this.

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 11:57 p.m.  

  • So how many RCMP interviews a day is PM^2 going to be having? That has to cut into his ability to campaign!!!

    Quebec numbers should have huge ramifications in Ontario, Atlantic, as well as snowballing in Quebec. If people think that they can vote con and not get a BQ win in their riding, you'll see lots of anglos and other federalists jump ship. Liberal implosion, as much of their support in Quebec is from people slicing off all of their olfactory nerves so taht they can have a federalist MP.

    C'est magnifique!!! Et puis, ca va etre plus grand en Ontario. J'adore Martin et sa bande de criminels!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:15 a.m.  

  • Do you think Laurie Hawn is hoisting a scotch and laughing his ass off tonight... I think so.

    Go Laurie!

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 12:55 a.m.  

  • Just taking a quick look at the schedule remaining for all of the campaigning party leaders. Friday is the 6th, which leaves 17 days until the 23rd. If you remove the 6 weekend days, the 2 debate days and E-day, that gives the Grits 8 days to change the direction of their campaign. They have to do this with diminishing funds, behind a weary leader, being pursued by 2 RCMP investigations and an oppostion leader who appears to be just hitting his stride.

    Just some perspective for y'all.

    By Blogger FRANCISM, at 1:46 a.m.  

  • Another day another Liberal RCMP investigation .. what is this 35 or 36 open files? Adscam was just the tip of the iceberg, techscam, ITscam, now this. Bad times for the Liberals, karma finally caught up with them.

    Quebecers are done with hte Liberals, but what is even more scary is the growing seperatist movement in Alberta --- they may even be a bigger threat and take all their oil with them!

    By Blogger CanadianTruth, at 1:53 a.m.  

  • The separatist sentiments in Alberta will soon quiet down if the Libs get what they deserve on the 23rd. Most Albertans that are leaning in this direction have been doing so out of frustration at the obvious corruption and a growing acceptance that they were powerless to change anything. PMPM, Mike Klander and Scott Reid may well have saved confederation. God bless em!!

    P.S.

    Canadian Truth, it's good to see you have the kids on the Scott Reid diet. By the way the end of your Players Filter pack makes for good toothpicks for the little ones after breakfast/lunch/supper.

    Syncro

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 2:16 a.m.  

  • ah1. The Tories won't get a seat in Quebec. Maybe come around Riviere du loup, maybe Laurence Cannon in the Pontiac, but those are the only seats worth imagining.

    2. The Tories won't win Ontario in the popular vote. It's all about keeping the seats they have (safe bet now, unlike say 2 mo. ago) and grabbing 5-10 more in Ottawa/London/Brantford.

    3. The Tory poll numbers will come off of this peak. The debate will be key, as will the last week of advertising.

    4. Bearing all of that in mind, it is in the Tories to pull up to a second peak and hold it until the election day.

    5. Climbing up that second peak will be a lot easier if CTV continues to kick the Libs in the nuts the way they did today on their national telecast. Wow.

    By Blogger matt, at 2:45 a.m.  

  • Yup. The CTV national tonight. That will teach Scott Reid for pissing off Bob Fife. Pay the Libs $10,000 a week to ride on their plane and get the same crap on their blackberry's as everbody else.

    Oh yes, the much vaunted Liberal war room. They got pea shooters when everybody else is packing hand guns.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:12 a.m.  

  • It was a fairly uninspired speech, I have to admit. Kind of sad really, because the policy itself was a real winner in my opinion.

    By Blogger Red Tory, at 9:29 a.m.  

  • Red Tory: Want to know why it fell flat?

    Simple and typical. They announced it last election, and set aside the cash just before this one, and then re-announced in free fall.

    "We are extremely disappointed that the Prime Minister chose not follow through on an election promise"

    "The Prime Minister is wrong if he thinks that students have forgotten about a $8 billion promise he made on June 4, 2004."

    George Soule
    National Chairperson
    Canadian Federation of Students

    Canadian Democratic Movement website (h/t Stephen Taylor)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:59 a.m.  

  • Matt... your election math is very wrong, or are you doing a prediction.

    Joe Green... your strangely silent... just in case your looking though, the CTV Blog had a special something just for you, courtesy of your friendly neighborhood NDP.

    How about "scary" Belinda Stronach - Mike Harris' choice for Prime Minister?

    "[A] person with vision, a person with experience, a person with courage, a person who has the ideas, and a person who has the conviction that can help Canada recover to be the number one country in the world." - Mike Harris nominating Belinda Stronach for CPC Leader, Toronto Sun, January 29, 2004

    "I believe Harris made the most significant mark on Ontario and I did go to him seeking advice." - Belinda Stronach, Toronto Star, January 25, 2004


    How about "scary" Scott Brison Liberal candidate for Kings-Hants?

    "Tax reduction and significant tax cuts resonate significantly with Canadians as do messages from governments that keep their word. Mike Harris and Ralph Klein have remained consistent in keeping their word and providing meaningful tax relief to Canadians." - Scott Brison, House of Commons, June 10, 1999


    How about "scary" Keith Martin Liberal candidate for Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca?

    "Premier Klein and Premier Harris are trying to fix the publicly funded health care system. This [Liberal] government has been gutting it." - Keith Martin, November 19. 1999


    How about "scary" Gary Carr Liberal candidate for Halton?


    Oakville South MPP Gary Carr says that when he talks about Progressive Conservative Leader Mike Harris' "common sense revolution" he's not just mouthing the party line. - Toronto Star, May 23, 1995


    Of course, the only person Mike Harris was scared of was "scary" Paul Martin:

    "The only thing that I would say is obscene when it comes to health care is the Liberal Party of Canada, through Paul Martin, slashing health care spending by over $2 billion to the province of Ontario." - Mike Harris, Legislative Assembly, December 4, 1996

    Course, being some sort of wierdo Liberal fanatic, you'll find a way to deny, deny, deny.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:00 p.m.  

  • "I believe liberals should try harder to get the attention of the quebec voters"

    LOL. If they got any more attention it would be tar to go with the feathers.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:02 p.m.  

  • Jack Layton is being courted by both Liberals and Conservatives, which simply shows just how far Harper has moved over to the left. Layton is playing that up big time, where the NDP are close to tying the Conservatives in Quebec, near the bottom.

    What I find most encouraging however, is how the peak has come off the Bloc. That is dramatic stuff, and bods well for Canada, for the Liberals in particular, but also for the Conservatives and the NDP.

    It also shows me that the real party FOR Canada in Quebec is the Liberal Party, which has gone to the wall more than once to hold Canada together.

    It also means that Quebecers are putting the "scandals" behind them and moving onto real political issues, such as the basic question of "who shall govern".

    If Harper does not achieve AT LEAST the status of a Minority Government this time around, then he and the "neocons" are finished. If Martin loses the election outright, then he is also toast.

    Layton has to improve his standing over what it is today to be considered a "success". For the Bloc however, all the unfolding drama is BAD NEWS; but for Canadians is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

    All this of course indicates that Canadian politics is returning to "normal", and that Quebec and Alberta separatism is on the wane.

    What I wait for on January 23 are two main events. First a serious and fatal blow to the Bloc. If they get less than 15 seats, and that is now increasingly possible, they will suffer a setback the likes of which has not been seen since the first "referendum". Second, I am looking for the substantial destruction of individual right wing extremists inside Harper's party, such right wing lunatics as Tony Clement and other loonies in Alberta. Some are entrenched and may not lose outright in Alberta, but a dramatic drop in popular vote from the previous election will be the strong signal of change that is coming, however not in the direction that American Republicans with Canadian Passports in Calgary wish to see.

    Good, Business as Usual. Finally.

    By Blogger Joe Green, at 12:09 p.m.  

  • Interesting polls, I hadn't seen these before. Based on absolutely nothing, just a little gut feeling, I've said all along the Tories will win 1-3 Quebec seats.

    But then, I am a master graduate of Psychic Powers 104, after all.

    By Blogger Lois, at 12:11 p.m.  

  • Again, Joe Green demonstrates that even the most mentally deficient among us can post a comment.

    I am sooooooo happy he is coming out strong for the Liberals.

    And yes, the Liberals are shooting up in the polls in Quebec. We're saying: steal more from us, insult us with that idiot-talk that comes out of Marc Garneau.

    More joe, more!

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 12:33 p.m.  

  • Only Joe Green could interpret these polls as a crushing defeat for the Bloc and a renaissance for the Liberals.

    Anything less than a resounding denounciation of the LPC at the polls on the 23rd will further stoke the fires of separatist sentiment.

    Just curious Jou, have you ever been to Calgary??

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 1:35 p.m.  

  • OOps that should read Joe not Jou. While I'm back, how're you making out with the meds???

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 1:38 p.m.  

  • Less than 15 seats for the Bloc???? That is laughable! Even with the gains posted by Harper, Duceppe's boys are still gunning for at least 50.

    By Blogger RGM, at 1:39 p.m.  

  • good question, syncrodox - but I can assure you:

    Joe Green has never been to Quebec.

    He hasn't a clue what's going on here.

    Harper does.

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 1:50 p.m.  

  • I think less than 15 seats in Quebec is far more likely for the Liberals than the Bloc, though I don't expect that will happen either. I think they'll get around 17 or 18.

    I think Joe Green is watching some other election campaign in a parallel universe where the Martin Liberals hadn't bolstered the seperatist cause through their incompetence.

    I'm a little confused how the Tories can be both vile "neo-cons" AND have moved to the left to court the NDP vote as Joe Green suggests. Perhaps left-leaning neo-cons can exist in this parallel election universe?

    Matt
    A Tory voter on Jan 23rd who is not an American card-carrying Republican in Calgary

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:47 p.m.  

  • has a new liberal gaffe happened yet today?

    must be a slow news day

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:45 p.m.  

  • my mistake. should've checked bourque first.

    RCMP PROBES TOP MARTIN LIB OVER $380K CONTRACT

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:46 p.m.  

  • It does seem that the MSM are giving the Liberals a bit more of a hard time in this election--- probably thanks to bloggers. They still have a ways to go tho' There is a rumour that Kieth Martin, Esquimalt--Juande Fuca, wouldn't take part in Paul Martins "Health Care" release because the emergency physician,Kieth Martin, feels we need a parallel private system.
    Can you imagine the media feeding frenzy that would have occured during previous elections if a Cons. physician candidate(e.g.Grant Hill) would have even contemplated such a thing!
    There was a few lines in to-days Calgary Herald.

    By Blogger Al, at 4:17 p.m.  

  • That's funny Matt a left leaning neocon, LMAO. It's good to hear that things are moving in Quebec Chuckercanuck, shows the savy of the Quebec electorate.

    Al, I saw a ten second mention of Keith Martin's refusal to attend the healthcare announcement on the CTV National news last night. It was part of a bigger piece on the developing cracks in the LPC campaign. Lloyd underplayed it as normal Campaign differences.

    Syncro

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 4:32 p.m.  

  • I saw Keith Martin on tv last night. He said "I don't think the voters of this riding want a trained seal".

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 5:14 p.m.  

  • Well... that's it for me - I won't be voting Liberal this election.

    Actually - I off to vote this weekend in the advanced polls.

    Dont want to change my mind later... its CPC for me and the missus.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:18 p.m.  

  • O/T CTV Newsnet is reporting that the SEC has notified the NDP finance critic that an investigation into the IT Scandal is being considered. How the hell is PMPM going to pass this one off as partisan politics???? The good ship Liberal is listing badly, watch for more rats to leap soon!!!

    Syncro

    By Blogger Syncrodox, at 7:43 p.m.  

Post a Comment

<< Home