Paying Dividends
For the Bloc, it will be business as usual and another excuse to bring up Adscam.
For the NDP, this is certainly Jack Layton's best Christmas ever. He's got the Klander slander comparing his wife to a dog, he's got the President of the LPCBC writing about Layton's "boiled dog's head smile", and now there's an RCMP investigation thanks to a letter his Finance critic wrote. It's an abundance of riches for Jack to go after the Liberals on. The Income Trust leak plays perfectly into his whole "Liberals help their rich friends" shtick and you can bet he's going to milk that for all it's worth.
For the Tories, Stephen Harper has got to be as close to giddy as Stephen Harper can get (which, for most of us, translates to "solemn"). As I mentioned in the earlier post, it's the perfect way for him to segue into the attack phase of the campaign when the Tories will hit the Liberals hard on corruption. Harper has been grasping for Martin era scandals to link with Adscam and I'm almost positive he would have been hitting the Libs on Herle contracts and Dingwall chewing gum if it hadn't been for this.
Which brings us to the Liberals. Watching Ralph Goodale on The National tonight was...almost sad. I mean, even though Goodale is one of the "Martin guys", I've always felt he was an extremely competent Cabinet Minister. I never loved Ralph Goodale (but, then again, who does?), but I've never disliked him in that very special Jean-Lapierre-Joe-Volpe sort of way. Mansbridge absolutely tore his talking points apart and it's obvious that the pressure for him to step aside is going to be intense. Dalton McGuinty has made a habit of making Paul Martin's life difficult and the Greg Sorbara precedence is still fresh in the minds of Ontario voters.
For the Liberals, the end game is out of their hands now. If the RCMP links someone in Goodale's office to this, the Liberals are done like the turkey dinner. If the RCMP clears everyone before election day, then there's only minor harm done. But it's unlikely the RCMP will finish this investigation in three weeks so it all comes down to how you handle the climate of rumours and speculation. I suspect Paul has learned from the Mad as Hell Tour and won't be fanning the flames this time (it also helps that the flames are on Ralph Goodale and not, you know, on Jean Chretien). The big question is now whether or not Goodale resigns. On the one hand, having the Minister of Finance step aside during an election campaign only makes this story bigger. And, like I said, Paul's learned his lesson about making scandals bigger. On the other hand, if Goodale steps down you can simply say you won't comment on an RCMP investigation and the story dies down under the barrage of negative ads. So long as Goodale is Finance Minister, the opposition can keep calling for him to step aside.
My prediction? Goodale will try to hang on for the rest of the week and wait for Herle's latest poll numbers to come in. The best time for him to step aside, media wise, is on December 31st, so I suspect we may be in for a New Year's Eve announcement, hoping that no one notices.
48 Comments:
I liked when Manbridge mentioned Sorbara... Goodale is like, what the hell did you mention that for? That's nothing like this case at all!
I don't think Harper will go the corruption route.. maybe for the debate, but I think they'll go with policy announcements until the Liberals go ugly.
By Anonymous, at 1:20 a.m.
Liberal war room folks, print this out and send it to Goodale:
MINISTERIAL RESPONSIBILITY : INTERPRETATIONS, IMPLICATIONS AND INFORMATION ACCESS
http://www.atirtf-geai.gc.ca/paper-ministerial-e.html
By Anonymous, at 1:29 a.m.
I haven't seen any Liberal talking points on this yet, so I suspect they haven't come up with a gameplan yet.
It's obviously a big play either way.
By calgarygrit, at 1:53 a.m.
Mark, all very well founded questions, however our problem is that we can not reach enough people, while the CBC is drip, dripping the fear Harper agenda every day to approximately 200,000 listeners.
On CPAC, I saw citizens of Toronto interviewed on the streets and they were all only making voting choices on emotion and the subconscious suggestions of the media.
Not one of them seemed to be aware of any of these things we know so well here in the blogs.
I have been posting about on Left leaning blogsites and pointing to the
href=“http:// Scamslist.Blog.com“>Scamslist and href=“http://BendGovernment.Blogspot.com “>BendGovernment sites to make some liberals at least aware of the vast crimes the Liberals are guilty of.
Harper and the CPC executive should spend most of the kitty on showering the country with mailbox handbills listing the scams and naming the newspapers the reports appeared in for validation.
People no longer seem to have time to read much past the front page of newspapers these days.
Mailbox flyers, on the other hand do get scanned by all those who pick up the mail. TG
By TonyGuitar, at 1:59 a.m.
The Sorbara example is not similar, as you can make a personal link to the allegation to the minister in that case. Michael Wilson also never resigned when a whole budget was leaked. So until it is alleged that Goodale leaked or profitted from it, he is in the clear.
What is damaging to the Grits is the blogosphere mentality to declare every hiccup as damaging and huge, especially on "friendly" blogs for the Grits. The RCMP has not declared there's proof of even a crime. Antonia Z's blog in the Star had a post that pretty well debunked the idea that there was insider trading occuring, b/c the rumours of the announcement were out in the marketplace. Anyway, my point is that even Liberal bloggers are quick to make the Martinites the spawn of satan. They're no angels either and deserve plenty of criticism. But the Grit campaign has been pronounced dead by "progressives" after beer and popcorn, flat tires, not debating duceppe, a blog that nobody read, etc. with glee. Yet, to date, the polls have been constant. Yet, there's a feeling held by small-l liberal bloggers that maybe the "next thing" will trip the Grits up, so let's obsess over it before any facts come out. If the people who should be expected to defend you are "nervous nellies" and don't defend you, you're in trouble.
I hope such glee will be remembered by Progressives if Harper does win and starts moving rightward the country. There will be lots of "buyer's remorse" if that happens
By Anonymous, at 2:09 a.m.
Correction to my post-The RCMP has declared there is no proof of a crime.
By Anonymous, at 2:20 a.m.
Michael; It's irrelevent whether or not Goodale should resign. Even if the Sorbara case is different, to the average voter it might not be. They'll hear Harper and Layton drawing the parallel and say "yeah, maybe he should step aside".
Similarly, I don't think Goodale is personally responsible for the leak - that's pretty far fetched. I don't know if there was a leak or not since I'm not an expert on the topic...from what I've read, it looks like there was, but I can buy the "speculation" theory as well. I'm simply saying that this is "huge" because the RCMP investigating the party in power during a campaign IS huge.
By calgarygrit, at 3:18 a.m.
Teddy:
The timing and content of the income trust related announcements were essentially dictated by the PMO. These were not Goodale's decisions. Martin's people were running this file and Goodale's role was that of yes-man.
By Anonymous, at 3:29 a.m.
Goodale's actions strike me as a man who has been blindsided.
There are only 2 possible sources for this leak. One is Finance, and I honestly believe that Goodale knew of no wrong-doing in his department.
The other is the PMO. I believe them capabale of absolutely anything.
The wording of the RCMP letter is interesting too. They won't say who they are investigating, but did specifically mention no evidence against Goodale.
Kinsella speculated that the scandal was designed to generate Liberal party donations by the profiteers. An allegation like that has the PMO written all over it.
By Anonymous, at 8:53 a.m.
Bart,
I've noticed that since the election has started, a lot of Martinites have been pointing a lot of thier guns towards you, Kinsella, Copps, etc... Is this how they plan to go negative? Shoot thier own when they can't shoot the enemy? If thats the case, the quicker the trip to the wilderness, the better.
This liberal party is not the one I can respect, let alone vote for.
By Anonymous, at 8:55 a.m.
Okay, I was wrong. I thought even though the Goodale decision not to resign was stupid on every level. I thought, there is no way this idiot will say I'm not going to resign and then resign a few days later. Even Klander resigned I thought.
Wrong... why was I wrong? I forgot to pose the question.. "What would Dithers do?"
Dithers would first publicize the scandal more. Instead of a national address to the Canadians, he appeared on the National and CTV Canada AM.
Dithers would then flip flop. I'm not resigning, that would make me look more like a crook. Now I'm going to resign a day later.
This is a clown show. We're amateurs, but Martin's guys are clowns.
By Anonymous, at 9:20 a.m.
Someone needs to track down the November 22 press scrum and determine what exactly he said.
By Anonymous, at 9:40 a.m.
The question that MUST be asked...
Of all the companies that made money on that day in November...
HOW MANY OF THOSE HAD CLOSE TIES TO THE LIBERAL PARTY?
By Anonymous, at 9:56 a.m.
Paul Martin's private health clinic company, Paul Martin's campaign plane company...
Ibbitson in the Globe:
"The Liberals, in response, will claim that nothing is proven, and that no parliamentary precedent requires the minister to resign, which is the sort of message track that has political spin doctors waking up screaming in the middle of the night. It will be no easy task for the Liberals to get the story back to their issues and their priorities. Less than four weeks remain.
These were supposed to be the quiet days of the campaign. Instead, innocent bystanders are gunned down on Toronto's Yonge Street on Boxing Day, making law and order an issue, and the RCMP announce they are investigating allegations of insider trading linked to the Finance Department, which is a law-and-order issue of another sort.
The most the Liberals can hope for now is that this is as bad as things get."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20051229/ELXNIBBI29/TPComment/Columnists
By Anonymous, at 9:57 a.m.
Anon 6:53 has it bang on.
They are investigating.
They aren't investigating Goodale (or perhaps even his office)
The only other office to know about it is the PMO.
The RCMP hasn't said they aren't investigating the PMO, like they specifically did with Goodale.
Conclusion: They are investigating the PMO.
By Anonymous, at 9:59 a.m.
I know that this wasn't a huge piece of Bart's post, but the "boiled dog's head" thing really kinda stuck in my craw. I went digging through Jamie Elmhirst's (President of the LPCBC) blog to find that particular statement. Alas I couldn't but I did find such goodies as "Harper longs to play kissy-kissy with...George Bush" and the Conservative child-care care plan is "crappy." I'm originally from BC, voted for Elmhirst to become LPCBC President in 2004, and later had a beer with him, so seeing his name caught my intrigue. Little did I realize that he likes to speak as though he's still playing in the sandbox. Fun stuff, all the goodies I found, plus my own response to the "boiled dog's head" stuff from Emerson are over at my blog: http://richardmcadam.blogspot.com
By RGM, at 10:23 a.m.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
By RGM, at 10:27 a.m.
The most damning thing of all in the income trust trading in late November...
on that afternoon, during the huge spikes in trading, over 95% of the increase is attributed to only 15 of the approx. 55 brokerage firms that are licensed to trade on the TSX. Why only those 15? Who are they friends with?
If it was pure speculation that the announcement was going to be made, the increase in volume would have been far more even across all 55 brokerage firms.
By Anonymous, at 10:28 a.m.
The problem with the liberals and why this thing is so huge, and I believe why it will be the tipping point in the campaign, is that the liberals already have no crediblity, because of previous scandles. The average voter is going to say "guilty", and not wait for the results of the investigation to judge their opinion. Ad scam is fresh in the voters mind. You know, fool me once, fool me twice. The voters feel like the fools. The question is what would the lifetime liberal do now. I suspect stay at home January 23.
By Anonymous, at 11:01 a.m.
I was watching the National last night and to me the biggest factor was the comment by the TD analyst. This is what I roughly understood.
It's not just the trades that are interesting, it's the sheer dollar volume of it, as if someone was CONFIDENT of a payout.
That to me is very suspicious. Apparently the RCMP thinks so too.
By mezba, at 11:55 a.m.
What about the Minister responsible for Democratic Renewal - Belinda Stronach. What is she going to do about this? Now that she is in a party she is more comfortable in, she should give us her insight.
By Anonymous, at 12:21 p.m.
You can tell the PMO is up past their eyeballs in this pile of dung. If everything was on the straight and level, any self respecting Prime Minister with an ounce of credibility would ask for his Minister's resignation. But no, Martin wants to keep the focus on Finance as long as he can, at least until after the election. But sooner or later, and most likely sooner, the guns will get turned inward. Everybody take cover. You can't say you weren't warned.
By Anonymous, at 12:21 p.m.
I wonder how much TD made on the 23rd.
By Anonymous, at 1:41 p.m.
Bourque is carrying speculation by "Liberal party insiders" that Goodale will resign. That was quite a pasting he took last night from Mansbridge,who is usually deferential to Ministers. If Goodale doesn't resign, then Harper and Layton have the opportunity they have been waiting for.
By cardinal47, at 1:58 p.m.
Let me give you all a cryptic hint:
Certain mandarins in Finance, those who entered the public service at the tail end of the Trudeau era, blinked and missed the regime of John Turner, survived and climbed through the worst of Mulroney and Wilson, and became top dogs when Martin as finance minister was claiming that it was he, alone!,
who created the magic pixie dust that resulted in the somewhat sound economic policy we see today, have had their Peter Finch "Mad As Hell" moment.
These men and women who toiled for a generation as the FTA, the GST and NATFA pulled the rugs out from under them in the rare moments when Ministers of Finance weren't, these folks who watched as Martin took the credit and dished out the blame aren't going to take the heat and lose their pensions for the PMO, especially since they are fully vested and are waiting for a convenient time to go, which is, as always for the responsible manager, six months after going through the briefing books with a new regime and bringing the new generation up to speed. Plus ça change..
A while ago there was a policy speech given by finance people to finance people about our listless regime and how it has demoralized their staff. It's important reading.
By Anonymous, at 2:15 p.m.
I am sick of Liberal corruption as well.
So, JoeGreen,Liberal corruption is Harper's fault ? That's rich.
Wait until the Conservatives get in and expose all of the Liberal rot and corruption that has not yet been made public.
and, oh yeah, Jean Lapierre is in Paul "Golden Boy" Martin's cabinet, so please don't rail about the separtists too, too much.
By Anonymous, at 3:40 p.m.
I think CalgaryGrit has the right of it. It will be denial, denial, denial, resign, denial, denial ad nauseum.
Ralph will have no choice but to resign, as it will be the only way to kill the legs of the story. I think Mr. Dithers should have had Ralph call it a day yesterday, when the story was pressed.
He looked like a deer in the headlights against Mansbridge, and Mansbridge went easy on him for the most part.
I'm a Tory through and through, but I do have to feel a little sorry for Goodale. I think that he is the victim here, of both criminal conduct, and in-fighting.
Frankly, I am surprised the RCMP have made an announcement of an investigation. They have never done that in an election in the entire history of the country. They usually bite their tongues until after the election.
I figure that there are political lapdogs to close to the Liberal elite inside the RCMP, who have been trying to keep this story down, and other RCMP smell a chance to seperate themselves from the leash of their masters. Harper has said on more than one occasion that the RCMP needs to be farther removed from the Central Government, and that faction see's this as the ripe moment to move. Too bad for the Liberals (not)
... Et tu Brutus? or is it the "rise of the republc".
By Joe Calgary, at 3:40 p.m.
Joe Green: Read what you just said. My are you stupid.
By Anonymous, at 3:42 p.m.
Joe Green is in denial. Let's disect his blather:
"My theory is that this fratricide inside the Liberal Party is at the heart of the matter, and that civil servants are not."
Who cares. Why should Liberal internal politics interfere with the operations of the Canadian government.
"Everyone knows that Ralph Goodale is as straight as an arrow, even Harper acknowledged as much when he switched his guns onto the Liberal Party, rather than the Minister.
He might be straight as an arrow, but he's dumb as a door knob. Witness how he brought this all on himself. HE CREATED THE QUANDRY AROUND INCOME TRUSTS.
"Furthermore I am shocked at how groundless allegations are floating around damaging and ruining the careers and reputations of people that have spent a lifetime in public service."
Are they as damaging as accusing the Conservative of being in bed with the Bloc?
"Its a disgrace and nothing less than a disgrace. Not at all unlike the ugly television ads in past elections that tried to emphasize Jean Chretien's speech impediment."
Or beer and popcorn. Chow chow.
"Nor do I think that Warren Kinsella is entirely "clean". He has all the possibilities of working for money to derail the new PM who he has no regard or respect for. Warren is out for Warren. His patriotism is as thin as his wallet."
Warren has more integrity in his pinky finger then Paul Martin has in his butt.
"All this shit is threatening the very foundations of the country, where once again, separatists are going to get still another chance to destroy this country. Its high time that Harper and Layton clean up their politics and start focusing on the real political issues of this country."
Paul Martin should do the same, that guy is a punk.
"And its high time to put Duceppe in his place. No other country on earth would tolerate a sucession that Canadians not only endure, but endure endlessly."
"Im sick of it."
Don't worry, you're about to get a house cleaning. Say good bye to your buddies in Ottawa.
By Anonymous, at 4:03 p.m.
The NDP.ca site is all over the Goodale file. Its very interesting.
http://www.ndp.ca/page/2561
By Anonymous, at 4:12 p.m.
It's time for Paul Martin to resign. Mid election or not. The Liberal candidates would fare better without leadership than with this lot in charge.
http://exceptforonething.blogspot.com/
By except for one thing..., at 6:06 p.m.
"so I suspect we may be in for a New Year's Eve announcement, hoping that no one notices".
Bart: Even 'ol Reveen the impossiblist couldn't vanish a finance minister without anyone noticing.
After all the Christmas family get- togethers over beer and popcorn, do they really want to be the only political story ever to actually get mentioned at New Year's parties?
By Anonymous, at 11:13 p.m.
TRADERS ARE TALKING
CTV NEWS is reporting traders are admitting they were tipped off.
One said he heard it from a senior Liberal.
Ouch, that's goota hurt.
By Anonymous, at 11:20 p.m.
It just gets better. And better. And better.
Thanks for sticking around Ralphie.
By Anonymous, at 11:24 p.m.
HAHAHA... these idiots are on the record with their names? Genius.
By Anonymous, at 11:29 p.m.
http://tinyurl.com/cwejm
The guys named are the ones who are coming clean and trying to get these crooks dealt with. TD, Teachers, and Sentry Select have decided that the Liberals need to be taken out. So they are now talking freely with the media as to who did what.
They will be talking to the RCMP soon, and things are going to get even more fun in Montreal and Regina. Somebody also needs to talk to CBC Regina to see who was screwing with their 10pm broadcast yesterday. Useless, but still corrupt.
By Anonymous, at 12:19 a.m.
Sorry, I need my meds.
By Anonymous, at 12:37 a.m.
Okay, we'll wait for you to take them before we take anything you post seriously. Good luck with finding a prescription for Liberal Denialitis.
By Anonymous, at 12:38 a.m.
"Fraud!" cried the maddened thousands, and echo answered "Fraud!"
But one scornful look from Martin and the audience was awed.
They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain,
and they knew that Martin wouldn't let a scandal go by again.
The sneer has fled from Martin's lip, the teeth are clenched in hate.
He pounds, with cruel violence, his chin on the plate.
And now the RCMP holds the ball, and now he lets it go,
and now the air is shattered by the force of Martin's blow.
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright.
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light.
And, somewhere men are laughing, and little children shout,
but there is no joy in Liberal --
mighty Martin has struck out.
By Anonymous, at 12:42 a.m.
And word to the wise, don't mess with Sheila or Warren. Or you'll be on the other side of a serving of kick ass.
Word to your mother..
By Anonymous, at 12:44 a.m.
T'is the point "joe" that no one can believe any nym, whether it purports to be the name of an actual person or not. every single post lives or dies by its content, unless you're using a verification mechanism like a blogger account or typekey, though they only go so far themselves.
Take my anonymous comments. Are they uncredible because of my nym? Well then check to see how they match up with actual data. Rather well... oh, nuts, sorry thats too bad for you.
I imagine that it really sucks that CTV is pushing the story hard. Poor Joe.
By Anonymous, at 1:21 a.m.
Joe,
Why would Harper have to prove "that he is a Canadian patriot and that Canadians can trust him".
You moron. Harper is a Canadian. He is one of us. He loves this country just as must as you and I do.
Or do you believe only Liberals are true patriots and are the only ones who can be trusted ?
Talking about trust. Did you see CTV news last night. Let's see, Mr. Drummond knew ahead of time, Mr. Nesbitt made about $100,000, etc.
By Anonymous, at 9:59 a.m.
"In a Parliamentary democracy like ours in Canada, it is the duty of the governing party to prove that they remain fit to govern the country. It is the duty of the official opposition to prove that they are better able to govern the country and to then give the electorate the final say during an election."
That's why Martin lost a confidence vote.
I hear the Liberal war room is getting a house cleaning, I hope you're eligible for EI.
By Anonymous, at 1:02 p.m.
I follow a simple rule - whenever someone asserts that (insert Canadian politician here) is a neocon, I immediately observe that such person is either a fool or a blowhard. There are only three neoconservatives of which I'm aware who are putting their names forward in this election, and two of them - Dr. Keith Martin and Michael Ignatieff - are donning Liberal colours (for what it's worth, I think Stockwell Day is the third).
Neoconservatives are concerned primarily with foreign policy issues - and advocate liberation of subjugated peoples through the spread of democratic values abroad. There is very little which unifies neoconservatives on domestic political topics. To describe Brian Mulroney as a neoconservative is absurd - and an insult both to him and to real neoconservatives, such as Irving Kristol.
By Anonymous, at 4:54 p.m.
I think that when a study of just who benefitted and what ties do they have to the Liberal Party is carried out, it's going to be a damning indictment. Circumstantial maybe, but damning none the less.
Pat
The strength and widom of a country is in it's people, not it's government.
By Anonymous, at 5:21 p.m.
Another potential scandal, compliments of Martin, Goodale and co. :
Failed Liberal candidate given lucrative federal job
Dave Haggard was paid $81,000 for nine months work on report
Article Tools
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Font: * * * * Doug Ward, Vancouver Sun
Published: Friday, December 30, 2005
Former labour leader Dave Haggard, a failed Liberal candidate in 2004, was paid $9,000 a month plus expenses by the Paul Martin government to produce a report on apprenticeship training that has yet to be released to the public.
Haggard, who is running again for the Liberals, said Thursday he worked as a special adviser on apprenticeship issues from early January to Sept. 30, when he submitted his report.
The former IWA-Canada leader said bureaucratic inertia has stalled the report's release by Belinda Stronach, the minister of human resources and skills development.
Haggard also rejected NDP charges that his appointment to the apprenticeship post was a lucrative political payoff for being a Liberal candidate.
Haggard ran federally in 2004 in New Westminster-Coquitlam, finishing third in a race won by incumbent Conservative Paul Forseth. Haggard had quit his job as IWA president to run as a Liberal.
This time Haggard is challenging NDP incumbent Libby Davies in Vancouver East.
"I'm proud of the report," said Haggard. "They just haven't had time to put it out yet but there's some pretty heady stuff in it."
Haggard said Stronach is new to her portfolio and "you don't learn those things overnight." Stronach was appointed HRSDC minister in the spring of this year after she left the Conservatives to join the Liberals.
Davies questioned why the apprenticeship report has not been released and why Haggard was appointed in the first place.
"It's outrageous that the Liberals would hire a failed Liberal candidate to produce a report that never makes it into the public realm," she said.
Davies said Ottawa's decision to sit on the report "reinforces the image of it being an inside job to pay off Haggard. What else are we to draw from it?"
Davies said "this is the Liberal politics that we've come to expect: insider cronyism."
Haggard dismissed Davies' accusations of political patronage, saying his report cost far less than most government reports and that he earned less than he did as head of the IWA.
"How can you call that a patronage appointment with me making that kind of money and doing something I was qualified for?"
Haggard worked as a welder and truck driver at MacMillan Bloedel's Franklin River division in the '70s. He said he dealt with apprenticeship issues often as an IWA official during the '80s.
Haggard said he made 21 recommendations regarding a range of apprenticeship training issues, including co-ordination of interprovincial training programs, mobility of apprentices between provinces and the participation of aboriginal Canadians.
Haggard said that he was initially appointed chair of a five-member advisory committee on apprenticeship. The Liberals then dropped the idea of an advisory committee, said Haggard, and changed his job description to special adviser on apprenticeship issues to the minister.
Haggard said he consulted with "275 user groups in every province and territory. So it's quite reflective of the communities we live and work in."
Haggard said he met with Stronach at the end of September. "All the feedback was that they were quite happy about it. Like I say: It's something that I've been waiting to do for 25 years."
dward@png.canwest.com
Just another nail in the coffin of the Liberals. Don't know how much more of this Canadians can take.
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