Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Three Weeks

That's how long it might be until we're in an election campaign. Jim Flaherty confirmed the rumours today - budget day will be March 22nd, setting up a confidence vote later that week and a trip to the polls on May 2nd or May 9th. This isn't the first time Ottawa has come down with a case eleculation (short for election speculation - trademark Calgary Grit 2011), but this is likely the biggest bout of it since September 2009.

If you remember back then, Michael Ignatieff made it clear he was ready to bring down the government, the Conservatives flirted with 40% in the polls, and the little one said roll over. The story appears to be repeating itself, but that doesn't mean we won't get a different result this time. If Harper's not willing to give an inch or the NDP decides there's no point in putting off the inevitable, it's go time. As such, the parties are nominating candidates, running ads, and booking planes.

And what should we expect, if we do find ourselves in a campaign? Well, if the polls are to be believed, Harper is on the brink of a crushing majority. Or not.

So to summarize, we may or may not be heading to an election, and we really have no clue what will happen in the campaign.

Hope that clears things up.

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7 Comments:

  • Phenomenol insight once again.

    When can we get some additional insight over some eggs and ham? I hope I have not missed it and I hope it is not sold out.

    By Blogger MississaugaPeter, at 8:28 AM  

  • I just don't see why the NDP would bother with TV ads if they weren't set on an election. Don't they have a small war chest? Unless the Tories offer something crazy like proportional representation, I don't see them supporting the government.

    The Bloc might see a spring election as an opportunity to storm the Quebec City Conservative fortress. I don't think the Tories are going to pay the Bloc's $5 billion ransom, so they're out, too.

    I think it's up to the Liberals to keep Parliament going now, and I think that party may be interested in how effective their tactics are at shaping their results. It might be a good opportunity to try some really unconventional things during a campaign.

    Also, with an Ontario election in the fall, I don't think either the Tories or the Liberals want to be caught in some of the province's battlegrounds being confused with their provincial wings.

    By Blogger Daniel, at 12:31 PM  

  • Daniel - well, one theory is that the NDP ads might be a very limited ad buy. Mainly to get earned media.

    It also might be the first step in Jack backing down by reviving the whole "making parliament work" meme.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:32 PM  

  • It's almost as if nobody WANTS to win an election.

    Every time the PC's jump in the polls, there's a new stupid thing to deal with, which, almost inevitably, they deal with poorly.

    Yet.

    Amazingly, they continue to lead in the polls, only because:

    a) The NDP are forever doomed to be an "also ran" because they happen to be the only party that sort of maintains it's ideological roots, which, too bad for them, are really rather poorly suited to actually run a country; and, more importantly..

    b) Michael Ignatieff has, again and again, betrayed his complete inability to capture the trust and imagination of the Canadian voter.

    And.

    So.

    Thus continues the Minority Waltz.

    (Oh. BTW. I've added your blog to blogs worth reading on my own.. while you are "Grit" oriented, your posts happen to often go significantly beyond partisan rah, rah, and enter into reasonable analysis, even occasional criticism of your own party.. which seems pretty healthy from my point of view)

    By Blogger R. G. Harvie, at 5:25 PM  

  • Daniel - well, one theory is that the NDP ads might be a very limited ad buy. Mainly to get earned media.

    It also might be the first step in Jack backing down by reviving the whole "making parliament work" meme.


    Bob Fife reported on Twitter on Monday that it was a large ad buy, by the way.

    NDP ads are positive. Feature Layton&contrast his leadership with others. Heavy media buy. #cdnpoli
    8:47 AM Feb 28th via Twitter for BlackBerry®

    NDP start running pre-election ads today. #cdnpoli
    7:47 AM Feb 28th via Twitter for BlackBerry®

    By Blogger The Pundits' Guide, at 10:43 PM  

  • A Large ad buy? Really? Fife has been increasingly out of touch lately, and I'm not sure this one changes that trend: two days in and I haven't seen a single instance of the NDP commercial since day one.

    If it were a large ad buy, I'd see it at least occasionally.

    By Blogger Paul, at 1:32 AM  

  • I don't watch much TV, but I've seen a few of them. Fife would have an inkling of how much they had placed with CTV.

    By Blogger The Pundits' Guide, at 3:11 AM  

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