Harper calls fall vote...
...in four ridings. And after a pair of intriguing provincial by elections last month, it's hard to get too excited over these ones. Pundits Guide has the full run-down, but here are the basics:
When: November 9th
Where: Cumberland Colchester, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Hochelaga, and Montmagny-yada-yada-yada
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the good news for the Liberals is that they aren't even remotely in the game in any of these ridings. An extra seat here or there won't change the parliamentary math, so by elections are all about momentum. And since it's a fairly risk-free proposition for them, Ignatieff won't fall victim to the same media pile-on that befell Dion after a string of bad by election performances in 2007 and 2008.
The Bloc are on the other side, trying to defend a pair of safe seats. They'll need to be careful in Montmagny, since the party has under-performed in by elections over the past few years, but they're probably looking at two holds.
Out east, Bill Cassey's old riding is up for grabs. Given its history, it's hard to see this one not going Conservative, but it will bear watching if Cassey endorses anyone or actively campaigns against his old party. Still, let's mark that one in the Tory win column.
Which brings us to the most interesting of the quartet - New Westminster-Coquitlam. Dawn Black (NDP) is the outgoing MP, but the last 3 elections have all been close NDP-CPC races, so this one could definitely go either way. The NDP appear poised to make this a referendum on the HST - that didn't really work for Tim Hudak, but the general consensus seems to be it's a bigger issue in BC than Ontario these days. Consider this riding a trial run - if the anti-HST message works here, you can bet Layton will try and play it up as much as humanly possible during the next federal campaign.
When: November 9th
Where: Cumberland Colchester, New Westminster-Coquitlam, Hochelaga, and Montmagny-yada-yada-yada
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the good news for the Liberals is that they aren't even remotely in the game in any of these ridings. An extra seat here or there won't change the parliamentary math, so by elections are all about momentum. And since it's a fairly risk-free proposition for them, Ignatieff won't fall victim to the same media pile-on that befell Dion after a string of bad by election performances in 2007 and 2008.
The Bloc are on the other side, trying to defend a pair of safe seats. They'll need to be careful in Montmagny, since the party has under-performed in by elections over the past few years, but they're probably looking at two holds.
Out east, Bill Cassey's old riding is up for grabs. Given its history, it's hard to see this one not going Conservative, but it will bear watching if Cassey endorses anyone or actively campaigns against his old party. Still, let's mark that one in the Tory win column.
Which brings us to the most interesting of the quartet - New Westminster-Coquitlam. Dawn Black (NDP) is the outgoing MP, but the last 3 elections have all been close NDP-CPC races, so this one could definitely go either way. The NDP appear poised to make this a referendum on the HST - that didn't really work for Tim Hudak, but the general consensus seems to be it's a bigger issue in BC than Ontario these days. Consider this riding a trial run - if the anti-HST message works here, you can bet Layton will try and play it up as much as humanly possible during the next federal campaign.
posted by calgarygrit at
8:17 a.m.
20 Comments:
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit is a CPC lock. I grew up there. My Dad said a very charismatic candidate can win (reference Bill Casey of course). But I don't think any of the current candidates are charismatic enough to make the difference yet.
By
Brad Dillman, at 9:11 a.m.
The NDP hold (I think) three of the five provincial seats in CCMV. Given the honeymoon Dexter's govt is enjoying, I don't think anyone should call this a CPC lock.
By
Anonymous, at 11:43 a.m.
If it was in our native Alberta, it would be understood.
But they are not. And it is a by-election to boot, when sitting governments more often then not lose.
IF THE LIBERAL WAR ROOM IS REALLY AS GOOD AS THEY THINK THEY ARE, THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE 4 RIDINGS!
Let's go LIBERAL WAR ROOM, show us that you have the right stuff, get us at least 1 victory. Imagine the positive consequences. Reread Kinsella's books!
By
MississaugaPeter, at 12:51 p.m.
1 of the 4 ridings? No way. Iggy really turned things around yesterday with his cracks about the PM's performance.
And with Warren Kinsella on board, Tories must be crying to their shoe-less, aproned mommas.
We're going to take all four ridings! Canada wants Liberals back in charge!
By
ForeverGrit, at 12:59 p.m.
If the Liberals can pull off a pair of second place finishes in Quebec, that would be a good accomplishment.
Beyond that, I have a hard time figuring out how they finish above 3rd in the other ridings. Maybe a second in Cumberland Colchester if the NDP doesn't get their act together.
By
calgarygrit, at 1:18 p.m.
Warren reminds us on his blog today "Campaigns matter" and about how the Conservatives were decimated to 2 seats by a great campaign.
I don't understand how a great campaign in just 1 of 4 ridings could not net a NEW LIBERAL MP.
By
MississaugaPeter, at 1:39 p.m.
There is a very good chance that the Liberals end up third in all four of these ridings which would be very embarrassing for them - especially in Quebec where SUPPOSEDLY they are poised to make gains. In Hochelaga, the NDP was not all that far behind the Liberals in the last election and their candidate never stopped campaigning and already has the riding plastered with posters. The Liberals still have no candidate. In Montmagny-L-Islet, the Tories were secnd last time and have a local mayor running. The Liberals have no candidate yet and apparently no one of any note wants to run for them.
By
DL, at 2:20 p.m.
Cumberland is a Bill Casey riding, not a Tory one. The Liberals can win if they get Casey's endorsement, and channel the Harper hates Atlantic Canada vibe.
I also think there is an outside chance of Riviere-Du-Loup going Tory. Crete was a long-time MP so his departure opens things up, also they could get Mario working for them.
By
french wedding cat, at 2:41 p.m.
DL, you said "The Liberals have no candidate yet and apparently no one of any note wants to run for them."
That is truly pathetic if true. Coderre had no time to line up a candidate in a riding that was up for a by-election?
P.S. All 4 ridings were held by Liberals in the past 25 years.
Cumberland Colchester was held by the Liberals from 1993-1997 (only 12 years ago).
Bellechasse—Etchemins—MONTMAGNY—L'Islet was held by the Liberals from 1997-2004 (only 5 years ago - GO LIBERAL WAR ROOM, GO)!
By
MississaugaPeter, at 2:51 p.m.
Maybe the Conservatives can turn turn the by-elections into a vote on whether or not Canadians want another election as soon as Iggy does. If you don't want an election, don't vote Liberal.
By
nuna d. above, at 3:47 p.m.
Cumberland Colchester was held by the Liberals from 1993-1997 (only 12 years ago).
...as was every other Tory stronghold east of the Ontario/Manitoba border. If the Liberals were to adopt THAT mindset for what constitutes a "winnable seat," then I'd love to see their strategy for winning such "winnable seats" as Nepean-Carleton, Beauce, and New Brunswick Southwest.
As for the assertion that riding is a Casey one, not a Tory one...a simple Wiki search of the riding's electoral history makes Swiss cheese out of that argument. Ironically, in the only election that the Liberals managed to win the riding, Bill Casey was the Tory candidate.
By
daniel, at 3:58 p.m.
Tories are going all out in Crete's old riding.
By
Paul (not Crete), at 4:54 p.m.
I personally think there is a good chance that the Liberals can come in a strong third in New Westminister-Coquitlam, a good second in Cumberland Colchester, and second in Hochelaga. I'm not sure about Montmagny-Riviere-de-Loup... the Conservatives are very strong in this area.
But, it will be worth noting to everyone that when Dumont stepped down, a Liberal won his provincial riding fairly easily. Before that, it was a fairly nice Liberal stronghold provincially. And while provincial doesn't always necessarily transfer to federal, I think you'll see a strong Liberal candidate in that riding which might even take out the Conservative candidate.
By
Kyle H., at 5:31 p.m.
With the latest Ontario split in the polls suggesting Conservatives will be elected along Eglinton Avenue, how the Liberals fair in Cumberland Colchester is the least of the party's problems. Time for Ignatieff to clean house.
By
Cassandra, at 6:09 p.m.
WOW, HOW PATHETIC.
NOT ONE OTHER LIBERAL ENCOURAGING THE LIBERALS TO PULL THEIR RESOURCES TOGETHER.
NOT ONE OTHER LIBERAL HAVING ENOUGH FAITH IN THEIR TEAM TO SAY "YES, WE CAN!"
Liberal apologists abound. Exactly how are the Liberals going to win more seats than the Conservatives (or win a majority) unless they win seats that they have not held previously?
Trust me, the Conservatives/Reformers are not thinking that way. Otherwise, they would never have won seats in the heart of Quebec.
By
MississaugaPeter, at 6:25 p.m.
Thanks for the link, by the way.
By
The Pundits' Guide, at 7:44 p.m.
Warren reminds us on his blog today "Campaigns matter" and about how the Conservatives were decimated to 2 seats by a great campaign.
I don't understand how a great campaign in just 1 of 4 ridings could not net a NEW LIBERAL MP.
Let's see..Warren is wrong. BMPM, not a great campaign, is the sole reason the PC's were decimated in '93. Believe me, I was a former PC voter, and never voted for them again.
1 in 4, if you work hard, not a chance of 4 in 4 like some MI sychophant is spouting.
JC, the Liberal hero, is the current party anchor. Each time his name comes up, reminds me why I can't vote LPC any more.
By
Möbius, at 7:50 p.m.
In New West, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Liberal in 4th, behind the Green. It's been trending that way already in the last couple.
Libs are 4th already in a lot of BC ridings and this will be another sign of their increasing irrelevancy in BC.
By
Peter Jay, at 11:12 p.m.
According to Pundit's Guide, the Liberals have candidates in all four ridings now. In Montmagny-Riviere de Loup, they have a former mayor. I think the likelihood of a Liberal second - or maybe first - has just increased.
By
Kyle H., at 11:58 p.m.
No doubt in my mind that the CPC will take Colchester/Cumberland riding. Heck they could run Jack The Ripper and he would win. The voters in that riding are not noted for original thinking.
By
Anonymous, at 5:24 p.m.
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