I Know What You'll Do This Summer

It seems highly probable that yesterday's deal between Ignatieff and Harper was actually the kick-off to a 5 month long election campaign. That's not to say the past 5 months, or even the last 5 years, haven't been a perpetual election campaign, but it seems a near certainly the Liberals will try to bring down the government this fall. Considering how little else he was able to squeeze out of Harper, Ignatieff clearly placed a high value on being able to force an election this fall. Wait longer, and the economy will pick up, as will the comparisons to Dion. If you thought the Liberal caucus was restless for an election in 2007-2008, back when it seemed likely many of them would lose their jobs, you have to imagine they'll be itching to go now that they can taste government.

So, baring a shift in fortunes, it seems the only thing that could keep the Harper government afloat until Christmas would be a deal with the NDP or Bloc. I wouldn't at all rule that out - but you have to imagine everyone in Ottawa is working under the assumption that we're in for a fall election.

Which means all parties will be spending the summer recess in high-level election readiness mode. I'd expect nearly all candidates to be nominated by the end of August (I just got my notice for the Trinity Spadina Liberal nomination meeting today), platforms to be finished shortly, and election strategy to be mapped out. Hell, a certain someone might even dust off the sweater vest for some family vacation commercial stock footage.

In short, I would get ready, because our fourth election in five years is coming up fast.