Thursday, June 18, 2009

I Know What You'll Do This Summer

It seems highly probable that yesterday's deal between Ignatieff and Harper was actually the kick-off to a 5 month long election campaign. That's not to say the past 5 months, or even the last 5 years, haven't been a perpetual election campaign, but it seems a near certainly the Liberals will try to bring down the government this fall. Considering how little else he was able to squeeze out of Harper, Ignatieff clearly placed a high value on being able to force an election this fall. Wait longer, and the economy will pick up, as will the comparisons to Dion. If you thought the Liberal caucus was restless for an election in 2007-2008, back when it seemed likely many of them would lose their jobs, you have to imagine they'll be itching to go now that they can taste government.

So, baring a shift in fortunes, it seems the only thing that could keep the Harper government afloat until Christmas would be a deal with the NDP or Bloc. I wouldn't at all rule that out - but you have to imagine everyone in Ottawa is working under the assumption that we're in for a fall election.

Which means all parties will be spending the summer recess in high-level election readiness mode. I'd expect nearly all candidates to be nominated by the end of August (I just got my notice for the Trinity Spadina Liberal nomination meeting today), platforms to be finished shortly, and election strategy to be mapped out. Hell, a certain someone might even dust off the sweater vest for some family vacation commercial stock footage.

In short, I would get ready, because our fourth election in five years is coming up fast.

16 Comments:

  • Just curious - What possible national emergency for the good of the people reason would the Liberals have to replace an experienced Conservative PM and experienced cabinet in the middle of a major recession when by all accounts Canada is slowly but surely ekeing its way out of the downturn with Ignatieff -a brand new never been tested , never been in government before, 3 year MP, never in his life proposed a legislation or sat on a legislative committee surrounded by mostly neophyte MPs since most of the experienced ones have left and whispered to in the backrooms by old Trudeau/Chretienites/bankers and Martin hangers on?
    What possible good for Canada would that be or is it only about POWER and what is good for Liberals?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:36 PM  

  • I think he's having you on, Anon.

    I read it as a subtle sarcastic rant against the continual Liberal election threats.

    By Blogger Möbius, at 7:34 PM  

  • Just curious - What possible national emergency for the good of the people reason would the Conservatives have to replace an experienced Liberal PM and experienced cabinet when by all accounts Canada is in great economic shape, with record low unemployment, the deficit gone, the debt coming down, tax cuts galore on the table with Harper -a brand new never been tested , routinely bashes Canada abroad, never been in government before, never held any significant position of executive authority, career politician and lobbyist, only ever worked behind the desk, only ever worked off the government teat or wealthy oil lobbyists, 3 year MP, never in his life proposed a legislation or sat on a legislative committee surrounded by mostly neophyte MPs since most of the experienced ones he wouldn't let anywhere near him ?

    What possible good for Canada would that be or is it only about POWER and what is good for Conservatives?

    >> Had we only asked such questions three years ago we'd be in much better shape now.

    By Blogger Ted, at 10:19 PM  

  • Ted - Harper proposed many bills and amendments to bills and in fact wrote policies for political parties even before he ran for election himself. Many of the conservative MPs have 10-15 or more years as elected officials - and have participated on many paliamentary committees, as critics, as parliamentary working groups while in opposition. Harper PROPOSED numerous government policies as an opposition member and met on a regular basis with Chretien and Martin (no showboating)
    AND, until the world wide recession hit last fall they paid of more than $30 billion on the debt as well as providing numerous tax cuts and one time payments such as the billions for the Residential School settlements. (that's what Liberals call BLOWING money). So, I'll match Stephen Harper's more than 25 years involved with policies for Canadians over Igntieff's 3 years drafting ways to pad his personal resume any day.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:17 PM  

  • Anon:

    I am merely pointing out that Harper and his team had, in 2006 when they formed government, nowhere near the governing experience as the Liberals to at this moment. And certainly the Martin government had way way more.

    And even when you compare Harper and Ignatieff, Ignatieff today has more leadership and executive and world experience than Harper did in 2006. And certainly Martin had way way more.

    What you have proferred as a reason not to vote for Ignatieff is not something Conservatives have followed for themselves when they wanted power.

    Conservatives: Just in it for themselves.

    By Blogger Ted, at 1:09 AM  

  • Nah, I was serious. The election game is on.

    And, everyone wants to win. Isn't that the whole friggin' point?

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:21 AM  

  • "Baring" a shift in fortunes . . or "bearing" ?

    I am confused. Could be either.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:57 AM  

  • Or perhaps even "barring," as "bearing" makes no sense.

    By Blogger RGM, at 11:03 AM  

  • To the Anon. Con. Troll's challenge, "What possible good for Canada would that be...": it's not just about the economy, stupid (altho' the Harperites have been spectacularly _un-Conservative in mismanaging their balance sheet); there's a whole host of other issues where 'New Gov't of Canada' has been undermining the national interest, by cutting funding to the social policy & research groups they detest; letting our nuclear isotopes capacity slide; being way too selective in defending our citizens' rights abroad; etc etc

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:05 AM  

  • Anon 11:05, please keep up with lexicon.

    It is no longer "Canada's New Government". After over three years in government, they have finally given that up.

    And they've replaced that with "the Harper Government". I've never seen such personality cult branding in the Canadian government before, but that is their aim.

    By Blogger Ted, at 11:09 AM  

  • Sweater vests in Ottawa in summertime? Get ready for some Prime Ministerial Pit Stains!

    By Blogger James Bowie, at 12:10 PM  

  • experienced PM & Cabinet!?

    I guess when you keep shuffling your MPs around.

    *groan*

    By Anonymous lr, at 3:05 PM  

  • Nah, I was serious. The election game is on.

    And, everyone wants to win. Isn't that the whole friggin' point?


    But just once it would be nice to see politicians acting in the best interests of the people. *sigh*

    By Blogger Joanne (True Blue), at 4:58 PM  

  • The reason to defeat Harper: he has always boasted that he would change Canada into something we would not recognize.

    Guess what: few Canadians want that.

    That is reason enough.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:43 PM  

  • Just wondering how people are rationalizing that Iggy want the summer to work on an EI package, but seems pretty much willing to completely ignore that work while planning for a fall election.

    If EI is truly as important as he claims, then should he not want to result the result of his 'hard' earned Blue Ribbon Commission?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:43 PM  

  • CG, have you been reading about the number of Liberal ridings that have had their election rebates frozen while Elections Canada investigates questionable Liberal tactics in the last federal election? Janke has been writing about the Grit "in and out" scheme. Can they have an election under that cloud?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 10:03 PM  

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