Political Elbow

A pair of provincial by-elections have been called for June 12th to replace retirees Ralph Klein and Shirley McClellan. The one in Klein's old riding is crucial, in that it's a huge litmus test to see if a Calgary breakthrough is possible for the Alberta Liberal Party. The only way Alberta will get it's first competitive election since 1993 is if Calgary swings Liberal, so all eyes will be on Calgary Elbow over the next month (no pressure Craig).


Drumheller-Stettler

Although there are more dinosaurs in this riding than Liberals, I'd be willing to bet the Liberals increase their vote total here from the last election. Part of this is because they've found a well respected local candidate in Tom Dooley. Part of this is because they didn't run a candidate here last time.

Expect the PCs to cruise to an easy win in this one. Their candidate, Jack Hayden, was Ed Stelmach's rural Alberta campaign chair - given that Stelmach snuck in thanks to the rural vote, one figures Jack knows a thing or two about running campaigns.


Calgary Elbow

Ahh...this one will be fun. For 36 years Calgary Elbow has been held by the Conservatives, and Ralph Klein won it by a 51.5% to 36.5% margin over his Liberal challenger last time. But all signs indicate it will be a competitive race between Tory Brian Heninger and Liberal Craig Cheffins.

On the one hand, Ed Stelmach has proven to be ignorant and ambivalent towards Calgary during his short time as Premier. Calgary Herald headlines over the past week have included "Tories express anti-Calgary sentiment", "angry renters storm Tory office", and "latest [Tory] strategy clumsy, brainless". Back before he was hired to work for Stelmach, Tom Olsen described his future boss' leadership win as "just say no to Calgary". In short, everyone in this city thinks Stelmach won the PC leadership because Jim Dinning was "too Calgary" and snubbing Calgary MLAs from Cabinet and being unaware and uninterested in Calgary issues such as rent control hasn't helped this reputation. Since by elections lend themselves to protest votes, this one would appear ripe for the picking.

On the other hand, many Calgarians simply can't bring themselves to vote Liberal and don't seem to understand the distinction between the federal and provincial parties. A lot of voters seem to be under the impression that Alexander Rutherford brought in the NEP, so any Liberal candidate starts with an automatic handicap.

It'll be a close one, but I'll predict Elbow swings Liberal. A win for the Alberta Liberal Party here would certainly be a big momentum builder for them heading into the next provincial election. But, like I said above - no pressure Craig.