The $64,000 Question
The media has been hyping the environment as a major political issue over the past few months and today's Globe featured a complete front page spread, pages upon pages of articles, and even green trim on the title. Inside, they publish the results from the latest Gregg poll:How likely is it that you would vote for your local Green Party candidate if an election were held within the next year?
Very likely 4% [clearly the 8-11% numbers we keep hearing are soft then]
Somewhat likely 16%
Somewhat unlikely 21%
Very unlikely 47%
What is the most important issue facing Canada today?
Environment 26% [up from 4% a year ago]
Health care 18%
Best Plan?
Keep trying Kyoto 63%
We'll never reach Kyoto goals - go with made in Canada plan 30%
Could global warming harm future generations?
Yes 83%
No 14%
Which Party has the best plan for the environment?
Liberals 16%
CPC 12%
NDP 9%
Green 27%
BQ 2%
Also...
76 per cent are willing to pay to have their houses retro-fitted to become more energy efficient73 per cent would reduce the amount they fly to times when it is only absolutely necessary
72 per cent would pay more for a fuel-efficient car
62 per cent are willing to have the economy grow at a significantly slower rate
61 per cent would reduce the amount they drive in half.
But...
Only 34% support higher gas and fuel prices
SO...
It's abundantly clear that the environment has exploded onto the scene over the past few months as THE issue in Canada. Because it's rise as a major issue has been so fast, this leaves us with many questions, none of which I'll attempt to answer right now [that's for a future post]. But I'd be curious to read what other people think about this, in the comments section:
1. Why did the environment suddenly become such a major issue? Something pushed it over the tipping point, but what?
2. Do Canadians really care, or are they only telling pollsters it's a big issue because they feel they should?
3. Would Canadians actually vote for the Green Party? If so, who does that hurt the most?
4. Is this a ballot question? Or is it the new healthcare?
5. How much are Canadians actually willing to pay? [I don't for the life of me believe that 61% of Canadians would cut their driving in half]
6. If this becomes a ballot question, which party does it help the most?
posted by calgarygrit at
10:26 p.m.
26 Comments:
"Why did the environment suddenly become such a major issue?"
A combination of things.
1) An Inconvenient Truth - I was trying to buy a copy for someone as a Christmas gift but it was sold out in almost every store.
2) Warm weather in Central Canada, strange weather in B.C.
3) Dion winning the Liberal leadership after campaigning as the 'Green' candidate.
3) The Cons fumbles on the issue, and subsequent public attempts to change their image on the topic.
"Do Canadians really care, or are they only telling pollsters it's a big issue because they feel they should?"
Most (90%) of those who say they care do, but willingness to make sacrifices varies.
"Would Canadians actually vote for the Green Party? If so, who does that hurt the most?"
Green Party will get 5-10% of the vote in the next election. Probably hurts the Liberals the most as it might cost them some close seats in Ontario.
"Is this a ballot question? Or is it the new healthcare?"
I think it was already a significant ballot question in the last election. Will be more so next time around. Less so if the Conservatives manage to regain some credibility on the issue.
"How much are Canadians actually willing to pay?"
Depends how visible the costs are. Most would probably support a greater cost increase resulting from emissions standards on industries than they would on something more visible such as a gas tax.
"If this becomes a ballot question, which party does it help the most?"
Besides the Green Party, you mean?
Depends if you mean most votes added, or who benefits more from the increased Green Party vote. Factoring it all in, I'd guess the Liberals would benefit most, but it's hard to say.
By
Declan, at 11:41 p.m.
76 per cent are willing to pay to have their houses retro-fitted to become more energy efficient
61 per cent would reduce the amount they drive in half.
etc...
2. Do Canadians really care, or are they only telling pollsters it's a big issue because they feel they should?
I think the complete lack of action on the above options makes it pretty clear that it's the latter.
1. Why did the environment suddenly become such a major issue? Something pushed it over the tipping point, but what?
From a search of the ProQuest database for Canadian media references to "global warming":
2003: 3,437
2004: 4,213
2005: 6,267
2006: 10,857
By
The Invisible Hand, at 11:54 p.m.
Andrew Coyne argued recently that the goal of Conservative environmental policy was to neutralize the issue. If only 4 percent more voters think that the Liberals have a better environmental record than the Tories, it looks like the job has already been accomplished.
Also, note how soft that support for environmental policy is. Sure, they'll tell pollsters how, theoretically, they'd sacrafice for the environment. But when the question gets to gas prices, a real expense they can calculate, they start to shy away. If any government actually enacted serious, carbon-cutting, economy-slowing policy, how long would people really put up with it?
By
None1, at 12:23 a.m.
The greens getting votes clearly hurts the NDP most.
The NDP used to get 3 different types of voters.
1. Those who voted for it for social policies (health care, unions),
2. Those 'tree huggers' who voted for the environment, and
3. Those who voted for them as the protest party. (True, some people voted for them based on more than one of those issues).
People who value the environment are turning away from the NDP in huge numbers either to the greens, or perhaps to give Dion a chance and hope he keeps his promises. And people who used to vote NDP for protest are tiring of Jack, and seeing increased credibility of another party that is fresher to vote for in protest. This means the NDP's main group of supporters still remaining is the group who believe they are better than libs to deal with social issues.
Since the 2006 election, polls have shown the conservatives up at times, the liberals up, and the green up. But, there has yet to be any poll to my knowledge that has the NDP up. They are in the most trouble in the next election. Their support is receding faster than Layton's hairline.
By
kenlister1, at 3:04 a.m.
...walk two blocks to the bus stop and take the bus to work each day
I'm not a CCD (climate change denier), but I would like some accurate numbers on how many Canadians have a bus stop within two blocks of their front door. Extra bonus points if the buses that stop there take the person anywhere near where they actually want to go.
By
pheenster, at 10:43 a.m.
1. Why did the environment suddenly become such a major issue?
While we've been hearing about it for a long time I don't think that people really started believing in it until they saw the warm weather this winter, and the freak storms in BC. The fact that they're finnally seeing proof of global warming makes them that much more conserned about the government doing nothing.
2. Do Canadians really care, or are they only telling pollsters it's a big issue because they feel they should?
A bit of both. I think a lot or people feel conserned but they're not ready to change their habbits until someone tells/forces them to, while others are already looking for more environmentally friendly ways to do things.
3. Would Canadians actually vote for the Green Party? If so, who does that hurt the most?
It hurts the NDP the most as they've always been seen as the most environmentally concious, and the Liberals the second most as they're now trying to cultivate a green image, but it hurts everybody a bit.
4. Is this a ballot question? Or is it the new healthcare?
Depending on what happens in parliment leading up to the next election it could very well be the ballot question. If Harper continues as he has people will still be highly worried and be looking for someone who looks like they will do something. If Harper puts in some kind of plan, I think a number of people will be satisfied even if the plan does not go far enough.
5. How much are Canadians actually willing to pay?
It depends on the penalties and the incentives. If there was suddenly a tax imposed on gas gussling vehicles like SUV's people would be using fule efficent cars in no time. At the same time people would be more willing to spend more on an energy efficent appliance if they see themselves getting money back on it through a tax credit.
6. If this becomes a ballot question, which party does it help the most?
The obvious answer would be the Greens. However it also helps the Liberals as long as Harper is unable to salvage his image on the envrionment.
By
A View From The Left, at 10:47 a.m.
Big issue because it is the media's new darling. Now, whenever there is a storm anywhere in our quadrant of the globe it's a news story. Global Warming is a godsend to slow news days.
I am uncomfortable as well with relating the Environment to Global Warming. There is a lot more to it than that. There is hard pollution, air pollution, acid raid, toxic levels, etc...I hope these don't get lost in the fray because imo they are far more important and pressing.
Canadians like to hear how wonderful we are, but in reality, the majority of us do not want to make the sacrifices.
By
NorthBayTrapper, at 11:47 a.m.
People love hysterical the-end-is-near stories for some reason. The environment was big some time ago-rain forest depletion,hole in the ozone,Earth Day. We've had national unity crisis/distinct society, Y2K. imminent nuclear holocaust, peak oil etc.
The real story is how opinion polls refelect whatever "crisis" bored jounalists focus on.
If we had an open honest debate on "global warming" (why is the ice cap melting on Mars? Martians driving SUV's?) it would be less of a concern.
The Green party will take young and urban votes away from the NDP and Liberals. It will have more of an effect on their dollars per vote financing than seats won. Dion is a fool to want the Green party included in debates and the backroom boys will be having him flip-flop on that soon.
By
nuna d. above, at 12:49 p.m.
1. The question is not "Why did the environment suddenly become a major issue?" but rather "Why did the media suddenly make the environment such a major issue?" Everyone here knows that if the media decided Quebec separation was the issue to follow nobody would be talking about the environment.
2. Canadians don't care. Canadians know that on some level the media is being cynical on the issue so they can't get worked up about it in a positive way.
3. The Green Party's numbers will not change. They will only be supported by people who either a) actually care about the environment or b) are protesting the big three.
4. This will be a ballot question, but in a negative sense.
5. Canadian's are not will to put their money where their mouths are.
6. It will help the Liberal party the most because the Conservatives are perceived as anti-environment.
Canadian's, like most people, will not change their ways easily. Canadians will take the path of least resistance. Taking myself as an example, when I buy my next house/car/etc. I will buy based on price/options/location etc. The only way I will get an environmentally friendly house or car is if it fits into my purchasing criteria (i.e. It costs the same as non-environmentally friendly house or car and fits into my selection criteria). That said, if I could get a hold of some money to make my house more energy efficient I would do it. Not because it is good for the environment but because I will see some tangible results for me such as lower heating bills, fewer drafts and so on.
I have a question for you, why would I buy a Honda Civic hybrid when a new "normal" Civic costs considerably less, holds more, is cheaper to maintain, has a longer life span and is good on gas?
By
John, at 3:30 p.m.
I think it's all media buzz. Not to say that the issue is unimportant, but a comparable amount of information concerning environmental issues has been in the public domain for decades.
I think polls like this demonstrate the public reacting to issues, not leading issues, and this is the flavour of the month. Or, if we analogize with healthcare, flavour of the next 5 years or so.
And none of the questions was sufficiently blunt, e.g.,
would you support measures that result in a 25% reduction to your net income?
By
matt, at 5:53 p.m.
The tipping point was a Conservative government. Hurricane Katrina, An Inconvenient Truth, and an unseasonably mild winter all happened last year - before and during the 2005/6 election.
The Conservatives raised the profile of the issue by musing about leaving Kyoto, and also by promising a green plan.
Secondly, the Conservatives have no roots in the various NGO's that promote environmental issues. Despite the crappiness of the Liberal record, those NGO's have been working overtime (probably largely because they don't want to see the Conservatives in power, period.) Regardless of what Harper does, there is negative press from the Sierra Club or some similar agency. This may be in part because they know Harper will NEVER kill the tar-sands (he likes to mention the phrase energy superpower). The Liberals, on the other hand, have nothing to lose with an old-fashioned "screw Alberta" strategy.
Thirdly, the existence of a relatively competent (and not scary) Conservative government meant that for the Liberals, there was more to be gained by galvanizing the left. In the leadership race, they effectively endorsed such a strategy by choosing Dion over Ignatieff.
By
french wedding cat, at 8:10 p.m.
Oh and the other effect (a more long-term one) is demographic. There are 3 million new eligible voters under the age of 25 (so born in 1982-1989). They grew up with Captain Planet, and a lot of other consciousness-raising stuff. The youth voting percentage is up too, so that adds to the effect.
By
french wedding cat, at 8:17 p.m.
"Only 34% support higher gas and fuel prices"
So what do people expect: voluntary compliance? The only way to get people to drive less is to charge more.
"73 per cent would reduce the amount they fly to times when it is only absolutely necessary"
Actually, according to Flannery's WeatherMakers, which is basically the partisan handbook for the more radical environmentalists, flying actually reduces the impact of the greenhouse effect. The disruption causes extra cloud cover which noticeably cools the Earth. Flying cools the Earth!
1. I don't know
2. Canadians care
3. No. (And I'll add: hahaha)
4. Yes.
5. I'd say upwards of 3$/L before we start trading in our SUVs.
6. No one (has a plan). Yet.
By
Robert Vollman, at 9:10 p.m.
The liberals have a miserable record on the environment and now we have saviour Dion, yes? Did you also read Rex Murphy in the same paper, gotta love that man, do I trust politicians? Not in this lifetime...ciao
By
Rositta, at 11:24 p.m.
Dan, this Q&A format is the greatest thing I've ever seen. More, please - much more!
1. Why did the environment suddenly become such a major issue ? Something pushed it over the tipping point , but what?
- Great question - I'm not sure, but those numbers from LR&Centre convince me it is media created. That's nice, but it's too bad - the media don't seem to be aware that "the environment" is not simply "global warming". It's just a piece of the picture. The weather this winter, whether crazy cold in BC or crazy warm in Ontario, has a lot of people wondering what is going on. The ball was rolling, but I really believe based on my family and friends that this winter has accelerated the roll.
2. Do Canadians really care, or are they only telling pollsters it's a big issue because they feel they should ?
- Let me tell you in no uncertain terms, that Canadians care. So long as Canada wins the global lottery and gets a trillion dollars (US) and can afford to fix healthcare, lower taxes, buy more chocolate, and stop greenhouse gas emissions, Canada will be there, and Canadians will be on board!!!
3. Would Canadians actually vote for the Green Party? If so, who does that hurt the most?
- Trick question! It hurts no one, because it only gives democracy more options! Okay, but seriously - I say the NDP, in a perfect-storm sense when married with Jack Layton. If Ed Broadbent was leader, it would hurt the Liberals more, Dion or no Dion.
4. Is this a ballot question? Or is it the new healthcare?
- You know, it's tough to guess. Not a ballot question - not yet, anyway. The new healthcare.
5. How much are Canadians actually willing to pay? [I don't for the life of me believe that 61% of Canadians would cut their driving in half]
- They're not. Christ, vinegar and baking soda are two superb cleaning agents that don't contain any chemical by-products, and they're a third of the cost of cleaning products that you should not drink - people keep buying the fancy stuff, though.
No Canadians are going to cut their driving time. In five years, they'll have a bigger menu of cleaner cars to choose from - that will make a difference.
Canadians will not pay more - they'll pay less. When they have to pre-purchase electricity on swipe cards, with meters that show (and stun) them clearly how much power they are using, they use a lot less. When they have the option to park their (urban) car and use efficient and cheap transit, they do. When they see at a neighbour's that a $25 000 geothermal heating and cooling unit will run on $20 a winter for decades, that will be the replacement unit they'll choose when the furnace goes belly up. And when gas prices go up, they'll plan on combining soccer practice with groceries, and maybe that visit to Aunt Roxanne's, too.
6. If this becomes a ballot question, which party does it help the most?
- I suppose the Greens. Probably.
By
Jacques Beau Vert, at 11:55 p.m.
1) If I had to pick one "tipping" factor, it would be strange weather.
2) I won't question people's sincerity without cause, so I'll accept that people are genuinely concerned. Whether that concern will last, or will be swept aside by the next political issue or scandal, is a different question.
3) Not sure if this will help the Green Party much, or if Dion will pull the rug from under their feet. On the other hand, if the Greens can't win a seat the next election (whenever that may be), with everyone talking about the environment, I don't see how they ever will.
4) Could go either way for now.
5) The capitalist in me says that the more political (read: government dependant) this issue becomes, the less willing people will be to take responsibility for their personal actions. I agree with you. People won't be cutting their driving by half anytime soon.
6) If Dion plays his cards right, it should be the Liberals. He's making it the party's prime issue, so if he can't win with it, the party's in trouble.
7) No, there was no seventh question. However, I did write about this issue a couple of weeks back, so this is my way of shamelessly promoting my blog. You can read my thoughts on the environmental issue in Canada here:
http://kirmalak.blogspot.com/2007/01/right-reasons.html
By
- K, at 6:39 a.m.
most people don't truly understand the ramifications of meeting our Kyoto targets
Couldn't agree more with you on this. I don't think most people even really understand Kyoto period. They know it is 'good' and 'environmental', but that's it. Personally, I feel the idea of sending money to other countries to buy the right to pollute is nuts. People are onboard with Kyoto as far as (the government) reducing emmissions, but that's the extent of their support.
Honestly, I think if Dion won power and committed us to Kyoto, it would be a long-term disaster for the Liberal Party. That's just what they need - a contract to sign huge cheques that we get nothing out of.
By
Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:44 a.m.
Started a blog about the politics of climate change in Canada. Feel free to read and comment.Climate Change Canada
By
Sean Cummings, at 10:09 a.m.
Re: Questions 1 & 2:
The enviro was actually a top issue back in the late 80's / early '90s, around the time of the Rio conference and Gro Bruntland's (sp?) "think globally, act locally" push. It was around the time when the Mulroney govt's "Green Plan" came out.
Something I heard at the time, which I've heard now, is that the enviro is one of those issues that moves towards the top of the list of important items when other issues are not as pressing.
The example used was the economy: if it is in the doldrums, people are more concerned about their job, the jobs of their family members, the eco health of their employers, etc. If however the economy is cooking along relatively well - as was the case before the early-90's recession, and as it is now - people tend to focus on other issues, including the environment.
I think that to some extent, the importance people put on the environment now is based on greater consciousness, freaky weather, Al Gore, et al.
Also, Jim Harris was smart enough to run a Green Party candidate in every riding, which helped his party get over the public-funding threshold and be taken seriously (or at least more seriously) by the punditry at large. That in turn made the GPC more attractive to someone like Elizabeth May, a more media-friendly person, once Harris stepped down. All of that has made the Green Party - and therefore, "green" issues - more of a permanent fixture on the political landscape.
But I also think that for better or worse, if the economy begins to trend downwards in a meaningful way (God forbid), "green" issues will become less important than they are now. Maybe not as "less important" as they were in the mid- to late-90's (I honestly don't think the enviro was a huge issue at all in the '93, '97, '00 and even '04 elections), but less so than right now.
As for the question of how big an election issue will be ... that's a good one, and I don't know the answer. Like I said, for several elections, the enviro wasn't a big issue as all, as best as I can recall. If "something else" (a recession? PQ winning in Quebec? a new terrorist attack - again, God forbid) comes along, the enviro may sink down the list again.
By
Jason Hickman, at 12:39 p.m.
JH; I think you're right in the sense that if the economy slowed, the environment would become a lot less pressing for Canadians. However, even 2 or 3 years ago, when the economy was going good, it only registered 3 or 4% in these polls.
By
calgarygrit, at 1:10 p.m.
As for what Canadians will do, a lot of the things Canadians said they'd do (ie. drive/fly less), they can do now without any government intervention/incentives. Yet, by answering that they would drive less, they imply they're driving more than they need to be so...by definition it kind of shows people are all talk.
I'd love to see a 50 cent a litre gas tax in Canada. It'd never happen in a million years, but it'd be great public policy.
By
calgarygrit, at 1:12 p.m.
Well, we're paying about 25 cents per litre already...
By
The Invisible Hand, at 5:54 p.m.
Likely few - perhaps most Canadians have a bus stop within five or six blocks of their homes so if people can walk two blocks why can't they walk five or six...
If you had said most urban Canadians, you might be getting closer to an accurate statement.
By
pheenster, at 10:23 p.m.
Actually, most Canadians are urban. I really don't know the stats, but it's possible that most Canadians do live within 6 blocks of bus stop. I wonder.
(I'm not arguing - most of the bus stops they would live within range of offer poor service -- I'm just saying, is all, and expressing curiousity)
By
Jacques Beau Vert, at 10:27 p.m.
Conservatives are quick to blame the Liberals for lack of progress on the Kyoto file.
My suggestion:
Go to Google
Type "Ralph Klein Kyoto"
and read the articles for the past decade
There are thousands of quotes and a lot of evidence as to who was obstructing progress on the Kyoto file.
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