Saturday, October 21, 2006

Kinda Sorta Final-ish Numbers

The final DEM numbers are now up on Liberal.ca. It should be noted that these results don't take the Rae funny business in BC into account. And they don't take the backfill spots into account (for those not familiar with the Liberal delegate election system...it'd take a 13,000 word post to explain it, so I won't even bother attempting). And they don't take into account ex-officio votes or turn-out for delegates at the convention. But, they still provide us a very good snapshot at how the first ballot should look:

Ignatieff 1309 (30.2%)
Rae 881 (20.3%)
Kennedy 751 (17.3%)
Dion 694 (16%)
Volpe 211 (4.9%)
Dryden 187 (4.3%)
Brison 153 (3.5%)
Findlay 38 (0.9%)
Undeclared 109 (2.5%)

To get a better picture of the first ballot, I factored the undeclared among the other candidates using the same percentages. I then cruised over to the wikipedia ex-officio endorsement page, portioned out the undeclared ex-officio and added it all up. Put it all together and bippety boppity boo - you've got a projected first ballot:

Ignatieff 1566 (31.3%)
Rae
988 (19.8%)
Kennedy
877 (17.5%)
Dion
840 (16.8%)
Dryden
254 (5.1%)
Volpe
226 (4.5%)
Brison
203 (4.1%)
Findlay
43 (0.9%)

As for what that all means:

1. Ignatieff needs to pick up 18.7% of the delegates to get over the top. Which means if he's facing Rae, he'll need 38.2% of the non-Rae and Iggy delegates to cross over to him when their man (or Martha) drops off. If he's facing Gerard, he'll need 36.5% of the other delegates and if he's facing Dion, he'll need 36%. So if the delegates break 2 to 1 against Iggy, he can't win. If he manages to get 40% of them, he'll come out on top.

2. Despite the early hints of a neck and neck duel, Gerard Kennedy should be in third place, ahead of Dion, on the first ballot.

3. Either Kennedy or Dion could blow past Rae once the bottom four contenders drop off if they get a key endorsement. However, I ran the math and even if Iggy only gets 1/3 of the bottom four delegates, Rae just needs a little over 10% of the free delegates to drift his way to stay ahead of at least one of Dion or Kennedy. So, what that means is that Bob is in your final three, although it's hard to tell if he's second or third. And with so many delegates in play by this point, I think whichever of Kennedy or Dion make it to the final three stand as good a chance as Rae of being the challenger to Ignatieff on the final ballot.

4. Bear in mind, this is all working under the assumption that delegates will vote for the candidate they were elected to support until their man drops off the ballot. As Susan Kadis will tell you, this isn't always the case.


So, after all of this, the only real conclusion is still that any of our four frontrunners could win this thing. I know that doesn't sound overly insightful but it will sure make for an interesting convention.

11 Comments:

  • As always, you make sens CG. Wish I had read it before I posted my own thoughts. But one question...
    How come LPC hasn't got the BC breakdown posted? One would have thought that would be kinda critical given the recent turmoil on the Left Coast.

    By Blogger Bizarro, at 8:38 AM  

  • CG,

    Sounds about right. Doesn't tell us what's going to happen.

    I'm waiting to see if any of the top four can induce the bottom four to make a choice before the first ballot.

    That would be good negotiating skills, and start the ball rolling.
    Unfortunately, Rae seems to be the best deals maker (for good or bad).

    By Blogger JimTan, at 10:27 AM  

  • 0.9 percent for Martha? She's in the political dog-house. That dog can't hunt. But we have to admire her dogged determination.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 10:33 AM  

  • I think the BC numbers are still in limbo because of the appeal over the forged form 6s Rae's team submited.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:25 PM  

  • Great Analysis...and it's going to be an exciting convention.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 1:47 PM  

  • Did you catch the Montreal debate? Martha tried to help Gerard by speaking in English.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:26 AM  

  • What a disgrace that Volpe finished ahead of Dryden and Brison.
    I ran the numbers last week and it looks like a dead heat on the final ballot btw Iggy against whomever is left standing, probably Rae or Kennedy.
    I think Dion has many good qualities and has outdone himself, but I still have a hard time believing he has a chance.
    With the exception of Brison people, I would expect at least 60% of the delegates not supporting Iggy to go to either Rae, Kennedy or Dion. Plus the way Iggy has been performing lately I would expect that % to go even higher.

    By Blogger nacho libre, at 9:33 AM  

  • CG,

    No allowences for ex-officios to vote en mass for Martha on the first ballot?

    By Blogger Obi, at 10:16 AM  

  • obi; If I was making a prediction, yeah, I suspect there will be a bump for Martha on the first ballot. I also think some candidates might have more trouble than others at getting their people to Montreal.

    I just wanted to run a quick projection, mainly to see how the top 4 stacked up.


    jimtan; I'll have a few thoughts on the Montreal debate up shortly.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:38 PM  

  • CG,

    Do you know the average percent of registered delegates that actually attend?

    What was the last leadership conventions total attendees versus registered?

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 2:15 PM  

  • RIley; It was pretty low last time but that's because it wasn't a real convention.

    I have no real clue...my guess would be about 75% of the delegates will show up.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:54 PM  

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