Wednesday, October 18, 2006

The Mail Arrives in BC

What's the old saying about elections being decided by the time BC results come in? Well, in this instance, the delay was a bit more than 3 hours, but BC has finally reported their delegate totals (pending appeals related to the Bob Rae funny business). With 23 ridings to go, the Liberal delegate totals sit as such:

Ignatieff - 1379 (29%)
Rae - 949 (20%)
Kennedy - 817 (17.2%)
Dion - 770 (16.2%)
Dryden - 244 (5.1%)
Volpe - 230 (4.8%)
Brison - 185 (3.9%)
Findlay - 42 (0.9%)
Undeclared - 133 (2.8%)

One imagines the ex-officio count will shift Iggy up slightly and Rae down a tad but the real key will be how effective campaigns are at getting their delegates to Montreal.

As for the convention itself, I think the likeliest scenario is something along these lines:

Ballot 1: Similar results to above. The bottom four all drop off before round 2.
Ballot 2: The three-way mexican standoff has it's first round. In all likelihood, either Dion or Kennedy finish fourth and drop off.
Ballot 3: The standoff becomes a two man race between Rae and either Kennedy or Dion. If the fourth place finisher endorses one of the other two, that man moves on. If number 4 endorses Iggy, Ignatieff is likely close enough to make the last ballot a formality.
Ballot 4: Kennedy/Rae/Dion take on Iggy for the top prize.

I'm still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.

31 Comments:

  • I think we might see one of the bottom 4 (Volpe?) stay in after ballot 1. That would give one more ballot to your count, and give a chance to see where the delegates for the bottom 4 go.

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 6:57 PM  

  • If one of the bottom four was to pass through, I'd like it to be Brison. He speaks incredibly well. I also learned recently that he's openly gay.

    I did not know that.

    By Blogger Jeremy Kirouac, at 7:06 PM  

  • That Ex-officio link hasn't been updated in weeks.

    A more updated ex-officio count is here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ex-officio_delegates_to_the_Liberal_Party_of_Canada_leadership_convention%2C_2006

    By Blogger Hammering Jow, at 7:11 PM  

  • Each and every delegate to the convention is abducted and replaced by shapeshifting Skrulls who see the destruction of the Liberal Party as central to their conquest of Earth. Joe Volpe is elected leader.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 7:54 PM  

  • The Liberals are so committed to involving women in politics. 0.9%?? Didn't it used to be 1.2%? Ugh, that's sickening.

    Anyway, interesting news, thanks for the update.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 8:00 PM  

  • The Necronomicon is found and opened without the password. An army of the dead comes out of le Biftek, storms the Convention. Volpe beats them back and wins the leadership on a heap of rotting formerly undead corpses.

    This should be a separate thread.

    By Blogger matt, at 8:35 PM  

  • Volpe's statements suggest he doesn't plan to drop off the ballot voluntarily, suggesting that he's likely to still be on the second ballot. My guess is Brison casts for Iggy after the first ballot (while he still has some political clout left), and Dryden's minions scatter to the winds.

    After the second ballot, net delegate leakage from Kennedy and Dion make it clear they can't claim the prize but their pride keeps them on the ballot until, having been dropped by the convention, their delegates scatter 60:40 for Rae and Ignatieff. Ignatieff wins 52:48 over Rae, with fewer than 70% of registered delegates casting final ballots.

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:03 PM  

  • CalgaryGrit,

    I think you overestimate the ex-officio count for Rae. I would not be surprised if Gerard/Dion is second after the first ballot:

    See

    http://canadiancerberus.blogspot.com/2006/09/liberal-caucus-endorsements-updated_28.html

    Rae will get very little ex-officio support from the province that has the most ex-officios and has the most to overcome if he becomes leader: Ontario.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 10:13 PM  

  • Looks like Kennedy has opened up a bit of a gap between him an Dion with these new numbers.

    And Rae is only 9% back of Iggy which shouldn't be too hard for him to overcome.

    By Blogger Jeff Thompson, at 10:13 PM  

  • I'm still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.

    Could happen ;)

    By Blogger Harrap, at 10:40 PM  

  • CalgaryGrit,

    Those B.C. numbers take into account the actions already taken by the Rae campaign in which they lost a fair number of delegates because they couldn't replace them with alternates, etc.

    It's a damn shame that the actions of one man (Mr. Loh) have undermined the right to suffrage of B.C. Liberal members.

    But I'm not crying over sour grapes, just pointing out that these numbers reflect the steps taken by the Rae camp (in conjunction with the Party) vis-a-vis the "tainted fruit" delegate forms.

    I'm looking forward to hearing some sort of statement from the party regarding the status of the appeal, as well as their ruling.

    Cheers,

    Skip

    By Blogger Skip, at 10:47 PM  

  • I'm concerned that the count isn't finalized two weeks after Super Weekend.

    Why hasn't the BC issue been resolved?

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 11:09 PM  

  • 1. The delegate counts in Quebec still need to be adjusted - Rae will lose some, Gerard may lose the same percentage, however, in terms of number of real delegates, Rae will lose many more.

    2. The delegate counts in Ontario have not all been counted yet.

    3. The delegate counts in British Columbia may still be adjusted (with Rae either losing some of his delegates or some of the Rae delegates not actually making it to Montreal since they did not sign their own Form 6s).

    It's 2+ weeks now and we are still missing 3% of the delegate counts (13/471 of the meetings have not been reported). The praise that was heaped on liberal.ca the first few nights has become scorn the past week.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 11:18 PM  

  • By Blogger Hammering Jow, at 11:36 PM  

  • Peter,

    The delegate recount in Quebec actually benefited Rae, because in relative terms, he gained 2 delegates vis-a-vis Ignatieff, and 6 delegates vis-a-vis Dion.

    But you're right, he did lose delegates, but Dion and Ignatieff lost more.

    -Skip

    By Blogger Skip, at 12:20 AM  

  • Is "three-way Mexican standoff" pejorative? Probably I should have asked before I used it.

    By Blogger Paul, at 12:43 AM  

  • why did the chicken cross the road? to get to the other side. Okay, here is another. Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the other side! Did it get funnier when i repeated the joke? Neither do all of your volpe jokes. you should all quit while you are behind.
    In other news, logically, none of the 'bottom 4' will stay after ballot 1 because their delegates are not obligated to vote for them, so they will pull out rather than get a lower total on the second ballot as their support bleeds profusely while delegates try to join a winning team.
    Rae may or may not make it to round 3. if he does not get the endorsement of any of dryden, volpe or brison, then quite possibly dion/kennedy who does get the endorsement will pass rae.

    By Blogger ktr, at 2:17 AM  

  • "Neither do all of your volpe jokes. you should all quit while you are behind."

    Advice you might consider offering Mr. Volpe.

    Of course he'd need a time machine to do it.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 9:26 AM  

  • I think you're missing a few important point here:

    1) Ex-officio vote for Martha. On the first ballot which they know will not decide anything, ex-officio delegates will vote for Martha, because they know it would be an embarassement to the party for her to come last, and also for Volpe to come anywhere but last.

    2) Iggy has lost some support in the past few weeks, not just from the Jewish community, but also from the wider community that realize he has a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease that isn't going to get any better. If you look closely at the delegate results from Thornhill, for example, you see that several of the elected Iggy delegates are named "Kadis". I don't think they will be voting for him after the first ballot.

    3) In addition to the now widespread anyone-but-iggy movement, there is also a growing anyone-but-rae movement. Most 905ers remember Rae Days; Teachers and other public sector workers will not be fans of Rae. We haven't begun to see the Conservative (Republican) attack machine go to work on Rae yet. They are holding back; hoping we elect him the leader. Trust me, all the research is done, sitting on Rahim Jaffer's desk waiting to be released.

    By Blogger HillBoy, at 9:34 AM  

  • "13/471 of the meetings have not been reported"

    Hmm. 471. Curious.

    Super Weekend started with only 465 DSMs (see, e.g. Cerberus, Sep 30), and seemed to end with 469 DSMs. Now, 471?

    Does this strike nobody else as strange?

    [As is often the case, readers who are interested in such details need to exercise care in figuring out which "Paul" is which. There are at least two of us.]

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:01 AM  

  • Here are my bold and controversial predictions:

    - if Iggy gets over 50% of the votes on any ballot he will win this thing
    - but, if any of Rae, Dion or Kennedy get over 50% of the votes before Iggy does they will win this thing
    - none of the candidates who who finish last on any ballot will win

    Call me Allan Gregg if you want, but you can put your money on those predictions.

    Ted
    Cerberus

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 11:39 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger HillBoy, at 11:42 AM  

  • Of course there is a scenario under which Martha could win it all

    By Blogger HillBoy, at 11:43 AM  

  • It's not relavant but

    Paul Wells has more pithy comments today. ( I type with a lithp )

    I was at Bourque's page and was wondering if it would be worth asking Mr. Bush what he thinks of Mr. Ignatieff.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 1:07 PM  

  • I am with you hillboy.

    Went to your blog. As one of the 41 elected Martha delegates, I can't argue with your logic.

    Allan Gregg's going to lose a lot of money.

    There will be a polling company up for sale round about December 3rd

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 2:43 PM  

  • Opinion Poll

    http://bourque.freepolls.com/cgi-bin/pollresults/058

    Be fast before it closes

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 4:06 PM  

  • I love the three-way mexican standoff analogy. In a game I used to play we called it a "Shanhai Sunset", with dire consequences.

    But, I wonder if Iggy is too smart for that. Whichever campaign picked up the first victim would probably win the next ballot. That would be a good point for a wise man to smell which way the wind was blowing and throw in his cards.

    Actually never mind, he's not too smart for that.

    By Blogger Gavin Neil, at 8:19 PM  

  • paul,
    good point. VERY FISHY.

    By Blogger ktr, at 2:21 AM  

  • The numbers are changing as you read this.

    http://www.liberal.ca/news_e.aspx?id=11936

    Now you will be able to see the results from every riding, club, etc. British Columbia's numbers have not been posted. As mentioned above, Gerard will be closer to Rae than originally thought.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 11:58 AM  

  • Is Northwestern Ontario Kennedy country?

    In a poll at www.netnewsledger.com from Thunder Bay it appears so.

    74% are supporting Kennedy.

    By Blogger The Infozone, at 3:56 PM  

  • Like Hillboy, it feels like you're missing a basic problem that Wells also overlooked- that Ignatieff is as likely to bleed delegates as anybody else, and the polarizing aspect of his candidacy means that neither Kennedy nor Dion are likely to be able to successfully direct their delegates in Iggy's direction.

    (Which means, to avoid a HUGE embarrassment, they won't do it at all.)

    By Blogger Demosthenes, at 5:00 PM  

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