The Mail Arrives in BC
What's the old saying about elections being decided by the time BC results come in? Well, in this instance, the delay was a bit more than 3 hours, but BC has finally reported their delegate totals (pending appeals related to the Bob Rae funny business). With 23 ridings to go, the Liberal delegate totals sit as such:
Ignatieff - 1379 (29%)
Rae - 949 (20%)
Kennedy - 817 (17.2%)
Dion - 770 (16.2%)
Dryden - 244 (5.1%)
Volpe - 230 (4.8%)
Brison - 185 (3.9%)
Findlay - 42 (0.9%)
Undeclared - 133 (2.8%)
One imagines the ex-officio count will shift Iggy up slightly and Rae down a tad but the real key will be how effective campaigns are at getting their delegates to Montreal.
As for the convention itself, I think the likeliest scenario is something along these lines:
Ballot 1: Similar results to above. The bottom four all drop off before round 2.
Ballot 2: The three-way mexican standoff has it's first round. In all likelihood, either Dion or Kennedy finish fourth and drop off.
Ballot 3: The standoff becomes a two man race between Rae and either Kennedy or Dion. If the fourth place finisher endorses one of the other two, that man moves on. If number 4 endorses Iggy, Ignatieff is likely close enough to make the last ballot a formality.
Ballot 4: Kennedy/Rae/Dion take on Iggy for the top prize.
I'm still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.
Ignatieff - 1379 (29%)
Rae - 949 (20%)
Kennedy - 817 (17.2%)
Dion - 770 (16.2%)
Dryden - 244 (5.1%)
Volpe - 230 (4.8%)
Brison - 185 (3.9%)
Findlay - 42 (0.9%)
Undeclared - 133 (2.8%)
One imagines the ex-officio count will shift Iggy up slightly and Rae down a tad but the real key will be how effective campaigns are at getting their delegates to Montreal.
As for the convention itself, I think the likeliest scenario is something along these lines:
Ballot 1: Similar results to above. The bottom four all drop off before round 2.
Ballot 2: The three-way mexican standoff has it's first round. In all likelihood, either Dion or Kennedy finish fourth and drop off.
Ballot 3: The standoff becomes a two man race between Rae and either Kennedy or Dion. If the fourth place finisher endorses one of the other two, that man moves on. If number 4 endorses Iggy, Ignatieff is likely close enough to make the last ballot a formality.
Ballot 4: Kennedy/Rae/Dion take on Iggy for the top prize.
I'm still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.
posted by calgarygrit at
6:45 p.m.
17 Comments:
I think we might see one of the bottom 4 (Volpe?) stay in after ballot 1. That would give one more ballot to your count, and give a chance to see where the delegates for the bottom 4 go.
By
UWHabs, at 6:57 p.m.
If one of the bottom four was to pass through, I'd like it to be Brison. He speaks incredibly well. I also learned recently that he's openly gay.
I did not know that.
By
Dr. Tux, at 7:06 p.m.
Each and every delegate to the convention is abducted and replaced by shapeshifting Skrulls who see the destruction of the Liberal Party as central to their conquest of Earth. Joe Volpe is elected leader.
By
IslandLiberal, at 7:54 p.m.
The Liberals are so committed to involving women in politics. 0.9%?? Didn't it used to be 1.2%? Ugh, that's sickening.
Anyway, interesting news, thanks for the update.
By
Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:00 p.m.
Volpe's statements suggest he doesn't plan to drop off the ballot voluntarily, suggesting that he's likely to still be on the second ballot. My guess is Brison casts for Iggy after the first ballot (while he still has some political clout left), and Dryden's minions scatter to the winds.
After the second ballot, net delegate leakage from Kennedy and Dion make it clear they can't claim the prize but their pride keeps them on the ballot until, having been dropped by the convention, their delegates scatter 60:40 for Rae and Ignatieff. Ignatieff wins 52:48 over Rae, with fewer than 70% of registered delegates casting final ballots.
By
Paul, at 10:03 p.m.
I'm still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.
Could happen ;)
By
Harrap, at 10:40 p.m.
I'm concerned that the count isn't finalized two weeks after Super Weekend.
Why hasn't the BC issue been resolved?
By
Down & Out in L A, at 11:09 p.m.
why did the chicken cross the road? to get to the other side. Okay, here is another. Why did the chicken cross the road? To get to the other side! Did it get funnier when i repeated the joke? Neither do all of your volpe jokes. you should all quit while you are behind.
In other news, logically, none of the 'bottom 4' will stay after ballot 1 because their delegates are not obligated to vote for them, so they will pull out rather than get a lower total on the second ballot as their support bleeds profusely while delegates try to join a winning team.
Rae may or may not make it to round 3. if he does not get the endorsement of any of dryden, volpe or brison, then quite possibly dion/kennedy who does get the endorsement will pass rae.
By
kenlister1, at 2:17 a.m.
"Neither do all of your volpe jokes. you should all quit while you are behind."
Advice you might consider offering Mr. Volpe.
Of course he'd need a time machine to do it.
By
Reality Bites, at 9:26 a.m.
"13/471 of the meetings have not been reported"
Hmm. 471. Curious.
Super Weekend started with only 465 DSMs (see, e.g. Cerberus, Sep 30), and seemed to end with 469 DSMs. Now, 471?
Does this strike nobody else as strange?
[As is often the case, readers who are interested in such details need to exercise care in figuring out which "Paul" is which. There are at least two of us.]
By
Paul, at 10:01 a.m.
Here are my bold and controversial predictions:
- if Iggy gets over 50% of the votes on any ballot he will win this thing
- but, if any of Rae, Dion or Kennedy get over 50% of the votes before Iggy does they will win this thing
- none of the candidates who who finish last on any ballot will win
Call me Allan Gregg if you want, but you can put your money on those predictions.
Ted
Cerberus
By
Ted Betts, at 11:39 a.m.
It's not relavant but
Paul Wells has more pithy comments today. ( I type with a lithp )
I was at Bourque's page and was wondering if it would be worth asking Mr. Bush what he thinks of Mr. Ignatieff.
By
Down & Out in L A, at 1:07 p.m.
I am with you hillboy.
Went to your blog. As one of the 41 elected Martha delegates, I can't argue with your logic.
Allan Gregg's going to lose a lot of money.
There will be a polling company up for sale round about December 3rd
By
Down & Out in L A, at 2:43 p.m.
Opinion Poll
http://bourque.freepolls.com/cgi-bin/pollresults/058
Be fast before it closes
By
Down & Out in L A, at 4:06 p.m.
I love the three-way mexican standoff analogy. In a game I used to play we called it a "Shanhai Sunset", with dire consequences.
But, I wonder if Iggy is too smart for that. Whichever campaign picked up the first victim would probably win the next ballot. That would be a good point for a wise man to smell which way the wind was blowing and throw in his cards.
Actually never mind, he's not too smart for that.
By
Gavin Magrath, at 8:19 p.m.
paul,
good point. VERY FISHY.
By
kenlister1, at 2:21 a.m.
Like Hillboy, it feels like you're missing a basic problem that Wells also overlooked- that Ignatieff is as likely to bleed delegates as anybody else, and the polarizing aspect of his candidacy means that neither Kennedy nor Dion are likely to be able to successfully direct their delegates in Iggy's direction.
(Which means, to avoid a HUGE embarrassment, they won't do it at all.)
By
Demosthenes, at 5:00 p.m.
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