Thursday, February 02, 2006

Race For Stornoway

Eventually, I'll add a sidebar with Liberal Leadership links, but until candidates actually start declaring, that's probably a tad premature. For now, here's a rundown of some of the main sites out there devoted to the race. Let me know if I've missed any.


Leadership Sites

Liberal Leadership Odds: The most complete site out there with bios, a forum, and news. Their poll has Stronach (WTF?) and Ignatieff running neck and neck.

Transferable Ballot: Set up by Flash Point Canada. You can rank your candidates in order of preference. With over 500 ballots cast, the current result has Stephane Dion beating out Gerard Kennedy on the final ballot.

The Next Face: Posts news stories on the Liberal race. Seems to favour Ignatieff and Dryden but only pegs their odds at 7:1 and 16:1 respectively.

Liberal Party Leadership: Has candidate profiles and a poll (not many votes so far but, for what it's worth, the top 3 right now are: Kennedy (32%), Dryden (16%), and Ignatieff (16%)).


Candidate Blogs

Martin Cauchon for PM: This site has been running since last summer.

Draft Dion: No, it's not run by Paul Wells.

Draft Hellyer: Paul! Paul! Paul!


Blogs Obsessed With LPC Leadership

I'd include myself in this list. These blogs have had a lot of leadership content over the past week.

Liblogs: Probably your best source - the Liberal blog aggregator.

Vijay Sappani: The guy seems awfully certain of what he says. Not sure how much stock I put in it, but he provides daily rumours.

Jason Cherniak: Find out which candidates are "emotive".

Andrew Coyne: Lots of news, and a ton of comments.

No Ottawa: Mark Watton is a member of the LPC's national executive.


In addition to this, I'll be keeping a running tab on the candidates, rumoured and declared, here.

40 Comments:

  • As a CPC supporter I would love nothing better than to see half-wit, unilingual, high school dropout Belinduh become leader of the Fibs.

    Perhaps there will a second 'Tories for Turner' wave with CPC's buying Liberal memberships just to see the intellectually challenged Stronach win!

    By Anonymous Cyrus, at 11:46 AM  

  • My question is:

    When is the serious Liberal renewal going to start and are Liberal bloggers going to play any significant part in it?

    Since the election night defeat every Liberal blogger I read has talked about the need for party renewal and then talks about nothing except leadership speculation.

    Are Liberal bloggers going to start having a discussion about the ideas and issues that they think the party should be defending and championing? Or is blogging only conducive to oddsmaking and on-line polls? This seems to me to be the time for Liberal bloggers to show the much hyped influence blogging can have on a debate.

    By Blogger Matthew, at 12:00 PM  

  • Leadership spec is just a lot more fun...

    Give the election a few weeks to set in, and then I'm sure you'll see more talk on policy.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:02 PM  

  • I just read cyrus' comment and there should be a correction:

    'Belinduh' (presumably Stronach, despite cyrus' bad spelling) left York University before finishing her degree. She is not, like a certain former Mike Harris education minister, a high-school drop-out.

    By Blogger Matthew, at 12:02 PM  

  • I will now shamelessly self promote my own handicap of the race ;)

    http://www.unsolicitedadvice.ca/index.php?action=fullnews&showcomments=1&id=111

    By Anonymous fjm, at 12:36 PM  

  • Fellow Tories,

    Belinda is a bigger threat than we imagine.

    Wobbly dippers and soft-headed Grits don't need "brains", they need sloganeering.

    She'll bake a bigger social programs pie and that's all they need to know.

    I'd still love to see her win it, its not because I think she'll be easy to defeat. Its just the delicious irony of it all.

    And Belinda vs. Iggy? He's dead meat. Mr. America is going to challenge Canada's sweetheart? The woman who saved us all from the horrors of a summer election? Never!

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 12:44 PM  

  • Dont know if anyone else saw Jane Taber last night, but, was no one else a little upset about the Quebec journalist who asked Ms. Stronach a question in french, and when she asked him to ask the question in English he walked away from the scrum....he said to Taber that it was to prove a point...that to be leader she has to speak both languages....I am no Belinda supporter, but, that was bizarre and rude and I still dont understand the point..she's not the leader you moron...now, if there was a Quebec candidate who couldnt speak English and was treated like that it would be front headlines. It was garbage.

    By Anonymous gwilliamjr, at 12:50 PM  

  • C.G couple of comments

    1) You have really have developed quite the grudge against Jason Cherniak ever since he advised you to "blog accordingly".

    2) Why does it seem like the nutjob converatives like chuckercanuck are the ones most obsessed with the leadership of the Liberal party? Fear, I suspect.

    3) Kennedy is suddenly getting mentioned alot more.

    Chuckercanuck, you and the rest of the conservatives won't be too happy if Kennedy becomes leader.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:03 PM  

  • Us nutjob conservatives are interested in leadership questions because were good at it--sheesh, we've being doing it for like forever.
    Seriously, I would like to hear some policy and philosophical debate from some of the brighter members of the Liberal party. On of the party's strengths has been its ability to move on issues, but
    clearly that also dissolves its sense of purpose beyond keeping power. Iggy, Dion, Rock, and others might help define party in helpful ways.
    Also, seriously, what's Kennedy's claim to fame--positions etc...?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:23 PM  

  • It's definetly time for policy talk. I'm beyond tired of monkeying around with this kind of nonsense. I'm going to start talking ideas now at my blog.

    Any other Liberals want to jump on board that's fine. If you want to keep speculating about the couple of the week, or if Britney's pregnant that's awesome too.

    By Blogger 3ML, at 1:32 PM  

  • Anonymous,

    Fear? Yes, we fear you will gift us with another vaunted Juggernaut like Paul Martin.

    Actually, your question should be:

    Why does it seem like only Tories are interested in the Liberal leadership?

    Not just in blogolia, but the only people remotely interested in the job are Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach.

    As for Kennedy, I have no clue who he is or why I should care (and I'd bet my fellow Quebeckers will feel the same way - we've got our man and his name is Harper - and we prefer Alberta Beef to Ontario Bull).

    ps. please go to my excellent blog. read some of the posts and then tell me I'm a nutjob. My tent is bigger than your tent! Har! har! har!

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 1:37 PM  

  • Chuckercanuck; your tent is way way smaller. Dont forget that, you guys barely got a minority govt. Smaller then the one Martin got, and at least he had the decency to resign. Harper has just proven that he cant get a majority. He is not a winner and we know from the past that he is a quiter. This is why we really need to get aleader and fast. But, you chuckerthenut need to go play in your own sandbox, and worry about your own "excellent" rotflmao blog
    ya trollin wackjob

    By Anonymous Happeningfish, at 2:36 PM  

  • chuckernut

    Liberals care, we just want the right candidate so that we once again form the government.

    This last election you conservatives had all the advantage, and you barely beat the Liberals.

    Get back to me when the "vaunted" conservative "Juggernaut" sweeps across the country.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:49 PM  

  • Hilarious!

    Happeningfish - please visit my blog regularly and post comments. That would be lovely.

    On who's tent is smaller. We got the minority. You didn't. The potential for the Liberals in Quebec is zilch. Tories came in 2nd in 40 ridings.

    Trollin wackjob? The insult is funny. But not accurate. I'm a regular here.

    Anonymous,

    That entitlement problem you have creeps up again. To you, its a matter of picking the right person and bang! you're in government. Arrogant a bit, no?

    Also, this summer, you folks were telling us to dump Harper - he'd never even get a minority. So, I love the raising the bar moves you're making.

    Two years from now, you'll be saying:

    1) Oh, fine, a majority, but its a SLIM majority.

    2) We Liberals hate, hate, hate Quebec.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 2:56 PM  

  • Chuckercanuck
    Wow you took it well and responded to the points not the insults, you took the higher road than me. You moved up in my opinion.



    Still think your a whackjob though

    By Anonymous Happeningfish, at 3:03 PM  

  • Happeningfish,

    To quote my hero, Harper, "I can take a punch." Especially clever ones that make me laugh. (One reason I come here is there is a good number of intelligent Liberals - yes, they do exist!).

    As for being a wacknutjobber - be warned: We aren't your mother's Tories anymore!

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 3:07 PM  

  • chuckerNut,

    Name 30 ridings you realistically believe Harper could take away from a non-scandal plagued Liberal party.

    I can name you 20 Conservative ridings that could easily be swung back to the Liberals with the right candidate.

    Your amateurish attempts to paint a gloomy picture of the Liberal party and the Leadership race are pathetic.

    The Liberal party governed for 80%+ of the last 100 years. The political leanings of the nation have not shifted right such that this pattern would be expected not to continue.

    I understand the strengths of the party. I have spoken to MANY voters who choose not to support the party during the last election. Most of them were satisfied with Liberal performance on most issues. Anyone that can not acknowledge that the Conservatives achieved a minority government only because of Gomery is delusional. And that being said a 123 seat minority government is a pathetic achievement.

    Anyone that believes that the attitudes of a vast majority of the country have shifted towards the right is delusional.

    ChuckerNut, have your 2 years of giggles, because come the next election you will have to go back to your old hobby of whining and crying.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:27 PM  

  • "Their poll has Stronach (WTF?) and Ignatieff running neck and neck."

    A little background for folks:

    liberalleadershipodds.com : run by Sean McDonald.
    Sean McDonald : worked for and still supports Dennis Mills.
    Dennis Mills : works for and is paid by Frank Stronach.
    Frank Stronach : Is Belinda Stronach's daddy.

    End of Lesson.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:41 PM  

  • Anonymous,

    I'm not giggling. I'm chortling.

    "The Liberal party governed for 80%+ of the last 100 years. The political leanings of the nation have not shifted right such that this pattern would be expected not to continue."

    Yes. With Quebec delivering the seats everytime. Please wake up.

    Its very close to over forever in Quebec for the Liberals. Of course, Tory screw-ups could change that. But you can't count on the failings of others to win your government back.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 3:50 PM  

  • Chuckernut

    "But you can't count on the failings of others to win your government back. "

    I can't believe you just posted that. Hahaha, you owe me a new monitor!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:06 PM  

  • Anonymous,

    Touche! :)

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 4:07 PM  

  • The Conservatives won a minority because the right was united.

    Sponsorship wasn't the first scandal. The others had no effect. The only reason we were able to bring the Liberals down was that we stopped fighting amongst ourselves.

    As for "30 ridings that we can take from the Liberals", I'll point out that we don't have to win 30 ridings from the Liberals, we just need to win 30 ridings. Here's a few swing ridings:
    1) Brant
    2) Madawaska--Restigouche
    3) Saint John
    4) Huron--Bruce
    5) Kenora
    6) London West
    7) Mississauga South
    8) Oakville
    9) Thunder Bay--Rainy River
    10) Welland
    11) Saint Boniface
    12) Winnipeg South Centre
    13) Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
    14) Burnaby--Douglas
    15) Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca

    But then, you underestimating us just works to our advantage, doesn't it?

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 4:39 PM  

  • Hey, here's a few more:

    16) Newton--North Delta
    17) New Westminster--Coquitlam
    18) North Vancouver
    19) Richmond
    20) Vancouver Island North
    21) West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country

    .. and we'll attaract better candidates now that we're on the government side.

    .. and your side is bankrupt, and while Liberals certainly talk a big game, none of them are willing to donate their own money.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 4:44 PM  

  • Toronto Tory

    I will speak about ridings I am familiar with because I have lived in that region within the last year.

    Mississauga South – This use to be one of the few Tory strongholds in Mississauga. One of the wealthiest ridings in Mississauga includes parts of Port Credit, Erindale, Mississauga Road, and Lorne Park, it has least amount of new development. But changing demographics virtually guarantee the riding will never elect another Tory provincially or federally. It would be like expecting Parkdale to elect Tories. If the Tories couldn't take this one from a scandal plagued Liberal party, they sure the hell won't win Mississauga South from a clean LPC. The fact that you mentioned Mississauga South leads me to question how well you really thought out this list.

    Oakville – Traditionally conservative riding, in which Liberals have been doing well in lately, might hold out against a Liberal sweep of the GTA for an election or two. Increased development in Oakville now that Mississauga is essentially full means it won't even be a marginally pro-Tory riding much longer. Expect the same thing that happened to Mississauga South to happen to Oakville. Burlington should remain Tory for next little while.

    Winnipeg South Centre & St. Boniface – Two reasons why Tories took any ridings in Winnipeg, a general anti Ontario/Toronto/Quebec attitude of a lot Manitobans, and Gomery. A good leader should be able to retake all the Winnipeg area ridings (except Blakie's) . Gomery had a big impact in this area; a leader with some western roots (Kennedy) should seal the deal.

    I won't comment on anything in BC, because quite frankly I just don't understand what is up with BC. The province seems to defy logic.

    I am sure others will comment on the Rural/Northern Ontario ridings listed.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:34 PM  

  • Toronto Tory

    If you want to see the future of Oakville. Drive down the North/South portion of the 403, along the Mississauga Oakville border. Take a look on the left and right side of the road and see what is coming to undeveloped parts of Oakville. Google Map (Satellite mode) the region, if you want.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:46 PM  

  • Well sure, Say Kenora and Thunder Bay Rainy River both those ridings the Cons came in third, those are just the first two I looked at. Kenora which I konw a little has a very strong union presence and to go tory would be a shock. The fact that Toronto Tory mentioned these two as well just calls it everything he said into question, at least on this post. Sure it vote totals they were only 2000 votes back but in a riding like Kenora that is an impossible lead.
    So Toronto Tory try again and see if you can come up with real ridings that can swing your way, I konw there is a few out there. I wont underestimate you, I live in Alberta so I know these tories real well, but throwing out supposed swing ridings where you came in third and a distant third does not help your credability.
    Want some advice.
    The people of Canada did not vote to change policy, they voted to change administrations.
    Please remember that or we will have to have Paul Martin back as leader because your govt is going to have the life expectancy of a fruit fly.
    This was not some ringing endorsment of either the Conservatives or Stephan Harper. Why is a 134 seat minority a defeat for Paul Martin but a 124 seat minority is a victory for Stephan Harper.
    I will tell you the same thing I tried to tell Martins guys, You did NOT win, you just didnt lose.
    Or at least someone else lost less.
    Martin 2 elections 238 seats
    Harper 2 elections 223 seats
    So please keep your egos in check for a while at least because I DON'T want Martin back as PM and he will be if you guys don't remember YOU DID NOT WIN, WE LOST

    By Anonymous Happeningfish, at 5:54 PM  

  • Happeningfish,

    You should keep it short to avoid sounding stupid.

    We don't need more than 2 - 6 Liberal seats. We can probably win up to 30 Liberal seats.

    We want the 51 Bloc seats, moron.

    We came in 2nd in 40 ridings in Quebec, dork brain. And we'll be much stronger next time. You'll be much weaker here. That's why there's 6 Liberal seats in Quebec that can go Tory. Like Lac-St-Louis: Bob Layton's Tory riding (Jack's dad).

    We don't need to get all misty-eyed and talk the loopy talk of Toronto's annex. Our struggle is in Quebec now.

    You think the 51 Bloc MPs returned to Ottawa is a good thing - because they aren't Tory ridings.

    More proof that Liberals and Separatists live in symbiosis; feeding off each other, needing one another.

    Toronto is Liberal because no other city benefits economically from separatism more than Toronto.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 7:59 PM  

  • Guys, I used to drive down the 403 through Oakville EVERY DAY. Believe me, I've seen it. I've canvassed in the riding (recently) and I believe it's winnable.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 8:24 PM  

  • It's easy to say we finished 3rd and discount our chances there. The fact is we won a LOT of ridings this time that we finished 3rd in last time.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 8:26 PM  

  • My uncle and aunt live in Oakville. There's 2 Tories.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 9:48 PM  

  • chuckernut

    How does Toronto benefit from separatism?

    Seriously, do you think before you type?

    There is no real point arguing with you boys, we’ll just have to see who wins in 2 years. Until then, we have a leadership campaign to work on; perhaps you boys could get a temporary hobby or something?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:38 PM  

  • Personally, I don't think that Harper should get too comfortable in his new digs. Is it just me or does Martin's demeanour seem somewhat "upbeat" for someone who has just seemingly destroyed his own career with probably the worst campaign in recorded history? Does he know something that the rest of us mere mortals don't?. Granted, a "perfect storm" would have to brew inorder to allow Martin to "rise like a phoenix". For instance, if Goodale et al. are exonerated; if the unsavoury optics surrounding the RCMP's role in the election (given more fuel with yesterday's photo-op) does in fact precipitate to the level of a scandal itself (and I do think that there is something there); if Harper runs into a lot of difficulty (this is a given)- who knows what will happen with respect to Harper's "caretaker minority government"? You never know..... stranger things have happened.

    By Blogger JD, at 11:06 PM  

  • JD,

    He's 67. Very rich. Loves his wife and kids.

    Can't he just be thrilled to be free from it? He's going to have a much more interesting and relaxed life. 67 and he ends as PM. Not a terrible career.

    I'd say, its relief.

    Anonymous,

    No I don't think before I type. You're the one who asked me what prolific means, right?

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 11:28 PM  

  • Anonymous,

    Where does the Bank of Montreal work from today?

    Where did it work from pre-1976?

    Ditto Royal Bank.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 8:58 AM  

  • chuckernut

    I asked because you misspelled it, not because I did not know the definition.

    I believe we were having a conversation on sarcasm at the time.

    The word was prodigious, smart guy. Your definition of “prodigous” as "a lot" was quite impressive.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:59 AM  

  • Sheila Copps! Uncommonly quiet.

    Why?

    Is revenge a dish best served cold?

    TIZ

    By Blogger The Infozone, at 9:46 AM  

  • I'm tracking some of the obvious candidates no-one else has thought of on my blog.

    By Blogger canukistan, at 12:40 PM  

  • Interesting that early on, someone mentioned policy, and no one is talking policy.

    A new knight or leader will not be enough.

    The Conservatives developed their policies, at their Montreal convention.

    The Liberal party supporters all talk about how the party needs to renew, and then leaps on the leadership horse like a new leader will be enough.

    This suggests to me the full impact of 13 years of power have not sunk in yet.

    Harper ran on a two election plan to gain power, and now has a team which is far more experienced in running a campaign.

    The Liberal campaign team, which was strongly "team martin", is now likely to be completely replaced.

    The Conservatives will face challenges in power, but even the media seems willing to sit back and let them land on their feet.

    That the Liberal loss is still a major media factor is to watch an accident -- if it bleeds it leads.

    As each potential leadership hopeful decides to get out of "Dodge", the accident looks worse and worse.

    The Liberals are in a land they really don't know. That is why they are all looking for a leader instead of doing the basics of survival yet.

    TIZ

    By Blogger The Infozone, at 3:23 PM  

  • http://draftdiamond.blogspot.com/


    I've started a new Draft Site to replace the ill faited Draft Dion site.

    Calgary Grit, could you add my guys name to your possible leadership contenders list?

    Let's let the Young Liberals take a crack at running the party for a chance!

    Draft Diamond for Canada!

    http://draftdiamond.blogspot.com/

    By Blogger Diamond Fan, at 3:29 PM  

  • www.onlineuniversalwork.com

    By Blogger evision, at 11:35 PM  

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