Scare Tactics
I've made it fairly clear that I'm mostly ambivalent to the outcome of the election. I'm still a Liberal and want to see the party do well. And I think a Martin government would be better than a Harper government.
But Martin pisses the hell out of me, has made a mess of things, and has run a terrible campaign. I can somewhat buy the short term pain for long term gain argument that a Liberal loss would lead to a leadership transition and I find it hard to believe that a Harper minority would mess things up that bad.
So I've mostly been sitting back and enjoying the show. But, for the first time, I'm starting to get a bit nervous about the results. The latest round of polls show the Tories surging ahead and, while Harper may not want to talk about it, a Tory majority has become a very real possibility. The Liberals being knocked down hard is a real possibility. The Tories replacing the Liberals as the federalist alternative in Quebec is a real possibility. And none of those things are overly appealing to me. With a majority and four years in government, Harper could do a lot of damage (yes, I'm aware that's going to generate a few comments but by "damage", I mean that he'll do things I'm not keen on...not that he'll literally destroy the country or anything).
So what's the point of this? Only to say that I imagine a lot of people are thinking the same thing as me. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a bounce back for the Liberals over the next few days. Not enough to win, but probably enough to deny Harper his majority.
But Martin pisses the hell out of me, has made a mess of things, and has run a terrible campaign. I can somewhat buy the short term pain for long term gain argument that a Liberal loss would lead to a leadership transition and I find it hard to believe that a Harper minority would mess things up that bad.
So I've mostly been sitting back and enjoying the show. But, for the first time, I'm starting to get a bit nervous about the results. The latest round of polls show the Tories surging ahead and, while Harper may not want to talk about it, a Tory majority has become a very real possibility. The Liberals being knocked down hard is a real possibility. The Tories replacing the Liberals as the federalist alternative in Quebec is a real possibility. And none of those things are overly appealing to me. With a majority and four years in government, Harper could do a lot of damage (yes, I'm aware that's going to generate a few comments but by "damage", I mean that he'll do things I'm not keen on...not that he'll literally destroy the country or anything).
So what's the point of this? Only to say that I imagine a lot of people are thinking the same thing as me. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a bounce back for the Liberals over the next few days. Not enough to win, but probably enough to deny Harper his majority.
posted by calgarygrit at
12:28 p.m.
30 Comments:
"Not enough to win, but probably enough to deny Harper his majority"
I agree.
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Greg Staples, at 12:35 p.m.
I have never seen a campaign like this one I know there has been some similar but I think this one takes the cake if we get a Majority Conservative Government. It would be a Majority with maybe 5-6 seats at best in Quebec that means they would need to get 150 of the seat outside Quebec. The Liberal campaign has been not is usualy self plagued with in fighting it seems. The Liberals need new leadership but they need new blood they need a new crew of young MP's to get the party to where it need to be.
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Anonymous, at 12:36 p.m.
Paul Martin increasingly looks like a tired old defeated man.
This last ditch attempt to alter the Charter of Rights is a horrific display of desperation.
I would not be surprised if we see a NDP or BLOC opposition. In fact I think we would all be better off.
The Liberals clearly need time to rebuild.
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Anonymous, at 12:40 p.m.
This last ditch attempt to alter the Charter of Rights is a horrific display of desperation.
And Stephen Harper's last ditch attempt to alter the Charter of Rights is an inspired display of brilliance?
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Jeff, at 12:48 p.m.
Yep... I share your thoughts and fears Calgary Grit.
The big mo is really scaring me. I, like you, think the short term of sitting in the penalty box during a short-lived Tory minority government is acceptable if we get Liberal regime change.
It is positively frightening that we are now looking at the possibility of a Harper/Reformatory majority.
Since 1993 an overwhelming majority (more than 60%) of the votes cast have been for center-left and left parties. We are a "liberal" nation and the kind of conservatism that Harper subscribes to is not what this country seems to want.
Sure, they've sold a fairly moderate, targeted campaign of trinkets and baubles. But, what would they do with a majority?
It's easy to promise a free-vote on SSM when you know by and large how your candidates would vote on this issue.
For the good of Canada, we need to see this end with a Harper minority.
A.L.
www.lastcanadianexit.blogspot.com
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A.L., at 12:50 p.m.
A few prominent features in TV and print about the Conservative Cabinet ought to do that.
Seriously though, I'm curious what folks think that Harper will do. Will Stockwell Day really be Foreign Minister, or will (would, I should say) we see such posts bestowed on less experienced but more moderate talent.
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dru, at 12:51 p.m.
"Not enough to win, but probably enough to deny Harper his majority"
I agree as well.
Note that the ESM is now at CPC+NDP = 159. That's just into strong CPC minority where the bloc doesn't hold the balance of power.
There is simply no way the CPC get a majority without getting MORE seats in Quebec than the Liberals.
No conservative party has ever got a majority with less than 40% and the EKOS is before 2nd look and the nuclear winter ad campaign launch today.
All in all the CPC are going to have to fight very hard to get that strong minority , but I think they can get there.
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Anonymous, at 12:52 p.m.
...last esm trade is cpc 36.5%
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Anonymous, at 12:53 p.m.
"Stephen Harper's last ditch attempt to alter the Charter of Rights is an inspired display of brilliance?"
Last ditch? He didn't pull that out of his ass. It's an old position. And not one that he would spend a dime of political capital on. He's on record as favouring constiutional change only when a consensus pre-exists.
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Anonymous, at 12:57 p.m.
Yes,
Stephen Harper would like to add property rights to the Charter. Adding something to a Charter to protect people's rights is a hell of alot better than taking away something that gives rights to stupid judges.
It's amazing the only hope the Liberals have is to call Harper scary and damaging since they have no policies that are moderate enough to appeal to all Canadians.
Sorry to tell ya that we Canadians are tired of the Liberal oligarchy and communist ideals that you force the majority of Canadians to endure.
It's time to Stand UP and make a change for the better.
How many times did Paul Martin lie during the debate? Calling himself a Quebecer. hmm... born in Winsdor, raised in Ottawa and went to university in Toronto. Said he would use the NWC to protect people( 2 1/2 years ago or so) and now he wants to remove it?
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Fighting for Democracy, at 1:00 p.m.
CG,
when Duceppe tries to paint the Conservatives as being "identical" to the Liberals -
well, there you have. Its not if or maybe:
The CPC is THE federalist party in Quebec.
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Tarkwell Robotico, at 1:02 p.m.
HARPER is CHANGE!!! and this country needs it soo badly, NOT just for canadians but for all countries that we do trade with and support as friends. WAKE UP WAKE UP!!! a WAVE OF CHANGE is finally coming!!!!
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Anonymous, at 1:06 p.m.
Canada overall is not as socialist and left wing as the media and the Liberals want you to believe. It only turns this way during campaigns. As Jack Layton says, the Libs run as NDP'ers and then govern as Tory's. Mosy of what Paul Martin was crdited for as Finance Minister was because he behaved like a Tory.
I don't believe the Conservatives will get a majority this time. It will be put on hold for a year or two. With 2 weeks to go the Libs can throw enough nonsense.
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Anonymous, at 1:07 p.m.
I could certainly be dead wrong about this, as I'm no pundit, but I really think the "beer and popcorn" comment did enormous damage to the Liberals, particularly in suburban Ontario. I think it gave people the impression, rightly or wrongly, that the Liberals are a bunch of condesending champagne socialists who don't think the average person has the intellectual capacity to run his own affairs. I know Liberals who privately agree with that sentiment, though they wouldn't dare utter it in public, for fear of being accosted by some member of the unwashed masses.
OC
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no sleep, at 1:15 p.m.
Tory Minority is what we want.
Harper wants to prove that under those situations, he can find common ground and unite people towards practical solutions.
Minority for Harper is better than Majority. Long term, that is.
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Tarkwell Robotico, at 1:17 p.m.
Not to worry, your salvation is at hand. You might want to put on your raincoat though.
http://www.liberal.ca/multimedia_e.aspx
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Anonymous, at 1:22 p.m.
What if Rick Mercer used the Conservative's ethnic MP's who are Muslim and implying how terrible it would be to have Muslims or Jews or Sikhs as cabinet ministers? And attacking them soley on their personal faith?
This is nothing more than Christian bashing and complete intolerance.
Disgraceful.
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Anonymous, at 1:35 p.m.
I would have agreed with you until before I sat down at work to have lunch. People were mocking Martin, and I live in Ontario. That's never good for recovery.
I don't see the ads released today winning people back.
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Anonymous, at 1:35 p.m.
If things keep going in Quebec the way they have been (we'll know after the debate tonight whether that's likely to happen) I think five seats are low in Que. Harper can go a lot higher then that.
And if that happens, any skittishness in Ontario (the only place that will happen) will be more than offset by those who've voted Lib solely for the purpose of supporting the only "federalist option."
Chester's call: This one's going to be a landslide.
Mr.Staples: Remember, trust Chester, Chester knows.
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Anonymous, at 1:45 p.m.
In addition to the Notwith'g stupidity, you gotta love:
- Martin the farmer
- Martin was in favour of mandatory sentences all along, its just that he couldn't do it cuz the opposition defeated him
- Insists that his tax is better for people who pay no taxes than a GST cut
- Give money to the aboriginals because they're the root cause of poverty.
Yeah, Martin was stellar last night.
- Not supporting his childcare plan would be "criminal."
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Anonymous, at 1:55 p.m.
I wasn't surprized in the least with Marin's performance, or lack thereof.
I predicted early on in his Prime Ministerial career that he would prove to be a fraud, and ultimately the "King who never was".
Finally, FINALLY, people are waking up the truth of this...even in the MSM.
The problem for him and the Liberals now?
Nobody is even listening any more. They're tuning them out in droves. They're tired of the negativity, the duplicity, the arrogance, the endless lies, the vapid inuendo, and above all else, the corruption.
In fact, the Liberals barrage of radio-active ads now storming the airwaves plays directly into this public perception of them as morally, ethically, and princply bankrupt.
Frankly, all Harper has to do now is pretty much stand back and let them self-distruct in front of the nation...
While he smiles in a manner which implies, "See? I rest my case."
And lastly...
We're talking Conservative majority, a la Mulroney 1984.
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Anonymous, at 2:00 p.m.
"I think it gave people the impression, rightly or wrongly, that the Liberals are a bunch of condesending champagne socialists who don't think the average person has the intellectual capacity to run his own affairs."
I have no issue with the assessment, except for the disclaimer of 'rightly or wrongly' - that is exactly the Liberal mindset.
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deaner, at 2:04 p.m.
I agree with many that a majority is a possiblity, but I'm holding out until Quebeckers react to tonight's debate. I figure at least ten seats in Quebec would be needed.
I disagree a bit with Springer on comparing it to Mulroney 84...BM didn't have the block grabbing 50-60 seats.
The Liberals lost the race when they lost the media (good job Scott Reid).
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NorthBayTrapper, at 2:22 p.m.
CG:
Reading your post, you surely come across as a supporter of a political party who feel they have an absolute devine right to rule.
Your attitude seems that 'its ok to let the Tories have a little go of it' before we get our party rebuilt, so that we can then continue to regain the divine right. As long as they do not achieve majority rule, then things are all fine and dandy for the LPC.
And that there is the problem. Perhaps if the LPC and its supporters did not feel they were entitled to the PMO, and that any party without Liberal values is not Canadian, then the LPC wouldn't be in the prediciament they are currently in.
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Anonymous, at 3:14 p.m.
Is CG saying that the Liberals will get some pity votes? :O
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Anonymous, at 3:20 p.m.
MK; I'm not saying the Liberals have a divine right to rule. I'm merely saying where I'm coming from. And yes, for me, I don't mind leting the Tories in for a bit so long as it's not for too long.
Just as I'm sure you don't want to see another 10 years of Liberals in government, I don't want to see 10 years of Tories in government. It has nothing to do with "divine right", it has to do with wanting the government you feel is best for the country in power.
How many Tories do you know who would say "gosh, a Liberal majority would be OK".
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calgarygrit, at 3:51 p.m.
Those ads are there to scare people away from voting NDP.
So yes, sympathy Liberal votes to protest against Dr. Evil.
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Michael, at 4:51 p.m.
cg:
You may not like this, but today's attack ads decreased the probability of a Tory Minority.
That is because they simultaneously increased the probabilites of a Liberal Minority and a Conservative Majority.
They rolled the same dice as Kim's folks. Now we see which way they come up.
The Board is willing to do your party exactly what they're willing to do the country.
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Anonymous, at 5:45 p.m.
... that being said Tory Minority is still the most likely outcome.
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Anonymous, at 5:46 p.m.
cg:
One of the dirty dozen has already blown back on the Board, but was archive by ctv before they could delete it:
check out wells (17:42 and 18:27 updates)
http://weblogs.macleans.ca/paulwells/
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Anonymous, at 6:44 p.m.
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