Monday, January 16, 2006

Odds and Ends

-Paul Martin Quote of the Campaign: From this Saturday's Globe:
"I want to talk to you about what you're doing for the Liberal Party," he told his followers. "I want to talk to you about how important it is that between now and Jan. 23, some 10 days from now, we put out every single hour of the day to make sure that the Liberal Party comes forth."
I'm going to assume Gloria Galloway misunderstood Martin. What he actually said was "we put out every single hour of the day to make sure that the Liberal Party comes fourth." The way this campaign has gone, finishing ahead of the Green Party has become the new target.

-Andrew Coyne's Mole Poll has closed and the winner is...Scott Feschuck. Scott always did seem too funny to be one of the kool aid drinkers so this is hardly surprising.

-Speaking of Coyne, he shows us various seat projections today:

UBC Election Market (latest): Fascists 135 Crooks 88 Commies 31 Traitors 53
LISPOP (Jan 7-10): 139-84-25-60
DemocraticSpace (Jan 15): 135-82-32-59 (Jan 10-12 Ipsos): 144-67-37-59
Trendlines (Jan 16): 141-75-31-60 (Jan 15): 97-77-17-51 Too close to call: 66
Loblaw Federal Election Pool (average): 130-97-22-59

-Courtesy of a reader, comes news that Tonny Ianno isn't exactly concerned about youth voter apathy. From the U of T Varsity:
U of T students and members of student government were shocked to learn this weekend that students would no longer be able to vote on campus.


Because concerns about the legality of the special stations were first expressed by members of Liberal Tony Ianno's campaign, and not ElectionsCanada, canceling the campus stations may have had a clear political motivation. Ianno is running for re-election in Trinity-Spadina (the larger of U of T's two St. George ridings).

-What do people think about Layton's new strategy? "Vote for us, just this once, so the Liberals can renew themselves." It's certainly different and it might just work since I don't think we're going to see the same stampede back to the Liberals from soft NDP voters we saw in 2004. The new NDP ads play on this theme.

-The Tories have a new ad which attacks Jack Layton. Didn't see that coming. I'm not sure that going after Layton is their best strategy, but it's a pretty funny ad.

UPDATE: Since people are discussing it in the comments, I thought I'd add the link to today's Ekos poll, which has the gap narrowing. For now, I'll assume this is just a blip, unless other pollsters start noticing this too.


  • The Layton ad is funny and that's a problem. The picture at the end makes it almost look like an NDP ad. I am not sure they want to pay for a big friendly Jack face in every house in B.C. They showed it on CPAC and the Tory spinner looked a little shamefaced.

    By Blogger Greg, at 11:26 p.m.  

  • Attacking Layton might have the opposite effect of what is intended. It reeks of arrogance on the part of the CPC.

    They've effectively sunk the LPC (or rather, the Liberals scuttled their own ship), and attacking Layton only legitimizes his campaign and gives him the attention he badly needed.

    By Anonymous Patrick, at 11:26 p.m.  

  • The Layton ad is a stupid risk.

    I get the feeling every other day that Harper is trying to stickhandle a majority into a minority...on purpose.

    Harper is a step by step guy who has plenty of time on his hands to take apart the Liberal Machinery, a few cogs at a time. What better justification than to have Libs & Dippers support his Accountability Act and level the playing field for the next election.

    Then it becomes a ground game and I'll put my money on Harper thanks.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:39 p.m.  

  • Layton ad is just weird. They got the Layton mouth and mustache but where's his voice. It kind of freaks me out.

    By Blogger Dan McKenzie, at 11:51 p.m.  

  • The latest Ekos poll might provide a clue as to why the Conservatives have made such a curious move. The polling shows a stop the Conservatives movement forming around the Liberals. If you have noticed some of the other polls there has been an inverse relationship between Tory and NDP support, strange as that may appear at first glance. The Conservatives may be making a last ditch play to bring the anti-Liberal voters together under one tent by undermining the NDP.

    If this Ekos poll is accurate, then the Liberals have jumped an amazing 14 points in a few days. This may explain a Conservative move which appears somewhat desperate, despite all the national media pronouncements of complete confidence. The NDP attack ads are quite telling in the big picture.

    This will all get even more interesting, as the stop the Conservatives movement makes its way to shaky Ontario. In fact, the Conservatives could very well be testing these ads for effectiveness before an Ontario launch. Maybe, anyways.

    By Blogger Steve V, at 12:13 a.m.  

  • Still, it's not the brightest strategy. As the other patrick said.

    Hmm. A left-wing patrick. And yet one with whom I'm in agreement.

    This time. Let's take this on a case-by-case basis.


    By Blogger Patrick, at 2:07 a.m.  

  • What EKos poll? I've seen a few blip polls that go against the blue wave, but isn't it most likely a misfiled 2004 poll that's fallen into the wrong pile... Although I do hope it is true. All we read and the info the media is feeding us tells us to head to the bombshelters. Oy vey!
    If Layton's plea is successful, the goal is to supplant the Grits as #3 (in their best-case scenario, NDP picks up 10-15 seats while the Grits are hit big, making the Bloc the official opposition - combined with a Tory big majority would be a cruel recipe for Canada's future) and help Harper put a stake in the party of Laurier, King, Pearson and Trudeau. I don't think NDPers are buying it here in BC, as the NDP has not bulked up at the expense of the Grits. Layton is dreaming, but in this weird election let's hope not too many people want to drink from the NDP's koolaid bottle.

    By Anonymous danny-o, at 2:11 a.m.  

  • steve v, if you're going to Belinda Stronach us, you should at least use numbers that are in the range of believability. A 14 point Liberal rise? Please.

    For those who want to see how badly steve v (mis)represented the EKOS polling (which continues to show Liberal support declining to record low territory), you can go to

    By Blogger Patrick, at 2:20 a.m.  

  • By Blogger Dan McKenzie, at 2:30 a.m.  

  • I'm not sure what on earth Steve V is hinting at, but Wells has been hinting at a new poll to be released tomorrow which will be quite interesting.

    All the polls seem to be fairly consistent now, so I'd write anything dramatic off as a "rogue" poll at this point.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:46 a.m.  

  • I was speaking to the 14 point rise in British Columbia in this poll.

    I might add that the poll to be released today shows the gap nationally down to five, with Ontario moving back to the Libs. Crazy eh?

    By Blogger Steve V, at 8:41 a.m.  

  • This add is noly going to be released in BC where the Conservatives and NDP are neck and neck.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:33 a.m.  

  • What do people think about Layton's new strategy? "Vote for us, just this once, so the Liberals can renew themselves."

    Might work once, but now if he asks for our vote next election he'll be accused of flip-flopping...

    By Blogger A BCer in Toronto, at 9:50 a.m.  

  • I like the Layton strategy, re: vote for us just once. I know of disaffected Liberals in toronto who will indeed vote NDP in order to put the Liberals, and in particular Paul Martin and his gang of thugs, out on their behinds.
    Believe, this is going to play well, in Toronto and Vancouver.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:17 a.m.  

  • As has already been mentioned, the ad is BC-specific, where the Liberals have disappeared beneath the waves yet again and the NDP poses the biggest threat to the Conservatives.

    What the Conservatives want to do is shine a light on Layton's actual policies. The Conservatives are likely finding that Layton's positioning is giving him some populist appeal in BC, but probably amongst people who have no idea what he actually stands for. Estate taxes and higher gas taxes have very little appeal to BC populists, so the Tories want to let voters know that this is precisely what they will be voting for with Jack. It's a smart ad IMO.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:17 a.m.  

  • Hey Calgary Grit,

    While I mostly agree with you, please make sure you get the story straight about the U of T polling station controversy.

    Long post coming up. I apologize in advance: Neither the Ianno campaign nor the Conservative campaign knew about the polling stations; only the NDP campaign was informed, by the large pro-NDP Students Administrative Council. As the Globe and Mail reported today, "Diane Benson, spokeswoman for Elections Canada, said the agency would have cancelled the event regardless of who had complained, because 'it would have taken place in an area where canvassing by candidates could also occur.'" The Liberal complaint was legitimate and actually made sure students actually did have a voice. Imagine all the students at U of T had voted at these advance polling stations and then went on their merry way, not voting at approved stations on January 23rd since they had already voted, only to discover that all their votes cast at the U of T polling stations were then disqualified due to the canvassing laws. That would then be the ultimate way to disenfranchise student votes. If anything, fault the gross lack of organization on the part SAC. SAC's just trying to cover its ass and put forth the NDP agenda by blaming the Liberals.

    By the way, last night, at the Trinity-Spadina "debate" at U of T, Ianno, over much ill-informed shouting from the NDP supporters, tried to bring up the problems of the U of T polling stations in his speech. It was hard to hear, but I believe he even read out a letter from the NDP campaign secretary finally acknowledging the reasons why Elections Canada cancelled the polls.

    Unfortunately, Chow couldn't respond to how only the NDP was informed about the stations in advance because she wasn't there when he spoke. Despite knowing for a full two weeks about this debate, she suddenly had a "prior engagement." She demanded that the debate be changed to a forum in order for her to go first and then leave. She answered six questions, including one from a student about why she changed the debate to a forum, to which she simply responded something to the extent of "I can debate. I like to debate." Then, she gave her closing statement and then left.

    Thanks, Olivia, for showing students you actually care.

    By Anonymous Michelle, at 12:36 p.m.  

  • Amusing ads, but they may backfire. Also points to Conservative inconsistency since Harper's Quebec lieutenant and campaign co-chair, Senator Claude Nolin, wants to legalize drugs too, and even issued a Senate report recommending just such a thing -- see

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:18 p.m.  

  • Michelle's story is interesting, but untrue. Ianno shuts down campus voting

    QUOTE: After "reading" from that statement the night of the Hart House forum, Tony Ianno confided to a New Democratic Party staff member (who had stated, loudly, "That's a lie!" as he "read"): "I'm a piece of work, aren't I?"


    The entire text of the NDP letter to Elections Canada is posted on the site linked to above.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:57 p.m.  

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