Tuesday, October 11, 2005

The Race Is On - 2

Daveberta has found the odds for the PC leadership race in Alberta Venture Magazine:

Jim Dinning (former MLA Calgary-Lougheed): 2-1
Ed Stelmach (MLA Ft. Saskatchewan-Vegreville): 4-1
Dave Hancock (MLA Edmonton-Whitemud): 5-1
Ted Morton (MLA Foothills-Rockyview): 8-1
Lyle Oberg (MLA Strathmore-Brooks): 8-1
Mark Norris (defeated MLA Edmonton-McClung): 9-1
Iris Evans (MLA Sherwood Park): 16-1

It's no secret that Dinning is the frontrunner, but it's very interesting to see the Alberta Venture panel brush aside Ted Morton as nothing more than a fringe candidate. At 8-1, I'd be tempted to wager a bit of my rebate cash on Dr. Morton. I expect the Morton crew to be signing up the far right special interest groups en masse which could be huge in a one member, one vote format (assuming that's the route they go).

It'll also be interesting to watch Oberg and Stelmach jockey for the rural vote that will be needed to take on Dinning's Calgary support.

16 Comments:

  • I think Mr. Dinning has a fair chance of winning the leadership. However, he may be touched by the Sports Illustrated cover curse. Many people believe he will herald a new age, where all our problems will be solved, and where vision can be applied to government.

    It is likely to be hard to deliver these expectations, and prevent a rural revolt at the same time. I expect one term of Dinning premiership, followed by a general regime change only Albertans do o so well.

    By Anonymous Realist in Calgary, at 9:34 PM  

  • "Sports Illustrated cover curse" aka the Paul Martin curse :-P

    Lord Dinning may be a schmuck, but we admire his nerdiness. It's almost Monte Solbergian in nature (but in a "I'm carrying a big stick and going to hit you" sort of way).

    By Blogger daveberta, at 10:39 PM  

  • Dinning comes off pretty good I have to admit (as Daveberta said in a Nerdy sort away). Taft is going to have his hands full I think if Dinning is victorious. I can't take Morton that serious despite all the rural doom and gloom people are throwing about. To be honest if I swung that way I wouldn't seeing either Dinning or Handcock as leaders of the province. They both come off as mostly sincere and forward thinking leaders. Morton on the other hand would be bad for the country but good for Alberta Liberal prospects as I think he would quickly turn off urban voters.

    By Anonymous Bgwest, at 11:37 PM  

  • Stelmach? Where is thatprediction coming from?

    By Blogger PR, at 2:03 AM  

  • Yeah, I'm pretty confidant that the Alberta Liberal Party will lose ground, and most likely seats, if Dinning is elected leader.

    Hate to say it, but he at least has the appearance of freshness.

    Taft would be the best premier of 'em all of course, but it's pretty tough to imagine him breaking through to more Albertans. I guess we're just not ready for a cerebral leader.

    By Blogger Jim, at 12:11 PM  

  • "Yeah, I'm pretty confidant that the Alberta Liberal Party will lose ground, and most likely seats, if Dinning is elected leader."

    what a surprise, us jumping to the defense of the Alberta Liberals... :-P

    We're not totally convinced of this.

    The PC Leadership race has the potential to turn out very nasty and could leave the Tories in fairly bad shape in the next election.

    Dinning is no Klein and doesn't even come close to presenting the 'average joe albertan' image (instead, he's very much a corporate downtown Calgarian). We would predict that the days of the overwhealming Tory majorities could be nearing end under Lord Dinning.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 2:36 PM  

  • Even if John Tur...err...Paul Mart...umm...Kim Camp...err...Jim Dinning does win, I'm not convinced he'll have a cake walk. Morton might jump to the Alliance and Dinning might find out that the top job is harder than it's made out to be.

    Obviously, a Liberal government might be dreaming too much, but I think the ALP can hold their own, or maybe even pick up a few seats if they're lucky.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:24 PM  

  • "I guess we're just not ready for a cerebral leader."

    If it's cerebral you want: http://poli.ucalgary.ca/dept/morton.shtml

    By Blogger PR, at 5:02 PM  

  • " "I guess we're just not ready for a cerebral leader."

    If it's cerebral you want: http://poli.ucalgary.ca/dept/morton.shtml"


    Peter, there's a difference between cerebral and crazy. :-P

    As Dr. Leon Craig of the U of A proved this summer, the quality of one's academic credentials doesn't necessarily reflect the quality of one's political tendencies (or credibility. or saneness).

    With the exception of the alienated right-wing fringe, we're willing to bet our $400 rebate cheques that mainstream Albertans will not respond well to Dr. Morton's 'More Alberta, Less Ottawa' right-wing firewall mentality.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 10:33 PM  

  • Well, speaking of leadership, how about this one for you:

    What do you make of the rumors that Dave Bronconnier will jump to provincial politics (challenging Taft for leadership of the Alberta Liberals) eventually? A few columnists were blowing smoke about it, but the validity of such suggestions has yet to be proven. As much as I admire and respect Taft, I think we're going to need a candidate who will appeal not just to our heads, but our hearts (to borrow a cliche that makes even me cringe). Could Bronco be that guy?

    By Blogger Jim, at 12:14 AM  

  • Bronco definitely has his sights set on bigger and better things - hard to say if that will be federally or provincially.

    I do like Taft a lot, but I expect someone like Bronconnier or Dave Taylor, who have a bit more of the personable side to them, will be the type of leader the ALP looks to next.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:57 AM  

  • Morton might jump to the Alliance and Dinning might find out that the top job is harder than it's made out to be.

    I agree with Calgary Grit on this one. In fact, I think Ted Morton may jump sooner rather than later to the Alberta Alliance. I hope he stays in the race long enough to expose all those skeletons in the closets of his rivals. Lyle Oberg's are predominantly personal in nature, but Dinning has personal AND ethical bones that could be rattled.

    Pit the rural south candidates against each other (Stelmach, the loyal Kleinite) and Oberg (blind ambition with none other than Dr. Lorne Taylor, the ultimate bully, as his campaign manager) WOW...it will get fun! Lyle and Ed had some personality clashes when Lyle was Learning and Ed Infrastructure as well.

    On the ALP front, Kevin Taft seems quite solid for now. Bronco has a nice war chest, but have not heard any credible noise as yet as to how he will put it to use.

    The Provincial scene will only grow more interesting!

    By Anonymous Fran Irwin, at 1:57 PM  

  • we have also heard the Bronco rumours, but can assure people that there is no movement against Kevin Taft in the ALP at the time being.

    So far, we couldn't see any type of movement form before the next election. Taft's future as Alberta Liberal leader will depend on how the party fairs in the next election. After that, well, we'll see.

    btw, Stelmach is from a northern Alberta rural riding just east of Edmonton.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 3:10 PM  

  • I actually don't think D-Bronco would be a very good leader for the ALP. I'm actually surprised that he managed to get elected mayor, he's not particularly popular from what I've seen. I think Dave Taylor would do way better or even David Swann (actually, what's with all the Liberals named Dave in Calgary?).

    -Socialist Swine

    By Blogger Socialist Swine, at 1:51 AM  

  • too bad...

    of all the Provincial MLA's I've worked with Gary Mar is by far the most competant... too bad that little scandle of his makes it so he's not running

    By Blogger Sierra, at 11:51 PM  

  • I believe everybody ought to look at this.

    By Anonymous www.muebles-en-vicalvaro.com, at 2:35 AM  

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