Summer Fix For Political Junkies
Canada - Ballot
LIB - 39% (+3)
CP - 25% (-5)
NDP -19% (+1)
BQ - 13% (+1)
GP - 5% (+1)
*14% were undecided (+2)
Martin - 31% (-1)
Layton - 15% (0)
Harper - 14% (-13)
Duceppe - 8% (+2)
None - 19% (+11)
Undecided - 13% (+4)
Very good - 6% (0)
Somewhat good - 21% (+4)
Average - 39% (+8)
Somewhat poor - 17% (-1)
Very poor - 16% (-9)
Unsure - 2% (-1)
Based on this, I think we can officially call the Glad as Hell tour a complete and miserable failure. It's mind boggling to see a politician's personal approval ratings plunger over the summer. Sure, Harper could still conceivably win the next election but if I were Bernard Lord, I'd start planning out my exit strategy from New Brunswick now.
For the Liberals, the approval ratings are up at a time when they have done absolutely nothing. This could either be because:
1) The less people see of the Liberals, the higher they think of them
2) Sponsorship is becoming more and more a distant memory
3) People liked the way Martin handled gay marriage
4) Compared to Harper, the Martin Liberals are looking better and better
It's probably a bit of all four.
It's also interesting to see that fewer Canadians see the sitting Prime Minister as the "best PM" than the number who would vote for his party. And this at a time when no one wants to the opposition leader as PM and the third party leader wants to destroy the country. I'm sure Martin never thought it would get to the point where people would vote Liberal in spite of him, but I'm sure he'll take it.
All of this paints a picture of a disgruntled electorate who aren't very happy with anyone but are quickly beginning to view Harper as nothing more than Stockwell Day v 2.0.
UPDATE: Allan Gregg's latest poll is slightly better for the Tories on voting intention, with them only down 36-28. However, it shows that only 2% of Canadians rate the sponsorship scandal as their major concern.