Friday, May 06, 2011

20 Answers

At the start of the election, I asked 20 questions - 50 of you took the time to answer them, and now we're able to crown a winner. But first, a look at the correct answers:

1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? Yes.

2. Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta? No. Once again, Linda Duncan remains the orange thorn in their side.

3. Will Julian Fantino be re-elected? Yes.

4. Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon in Outremont? Mulcair. Who would have thought the most highly anticipated race in Quebec before the election would turn into the least exciting race on election night?

5. Which polling company's publicly released final numbers will be closest to the actual results? Angus Reid.

6. Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42%. Puting aside the Compass siliness, Ipsos and Nanos both had the Tories at 43% once during the campaign.

7. Will the Liberals ever lead in a national election poll? Not even close.

8. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? After some reflection and some feedback, I have to give this one to the Conservatives. All parties played fast and loose with the facts, but the Tories took direct shots at Ignatieff's patriotism. Perhaps it's fair and, truth be told, their election ads were tamer than their pre-writ ads. But in the absence of another obvious candidate, they take this one.

9. Which party will run the "best" ad? As voted on by you, the NDP.

10. Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign? Nope.

11. Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign? What's a Cabinet Minister?

12. Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad? The sweater vest has been replaced with the Canada jacket.

13. Conservative vote over/under in Crowfoot - 80% Believe it or not, but the overs have it.

14. Voter turn out over/under - 60% Just barely over.

15. How many seats will the Conservatives win in Newfoundland? 1

16. Number of independent candidates elected? 0

17. The Bloc. Will they win more or less seats than last election? Ha!

18. Will over half the Liberal seats won come from Ontario? No.

19. Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate? Only once, but I gave a point to anyone who said 5 or less.

20. Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? Harper. Though in retrospect, Layton was likely the real winner.

The tie-break was the predicted seat count. The closest tie-break answer came from Alice Funke at Pundits Guide, who foresaw an NDP official opposition - but her entry was delivered time-stamped after the closing date.

So the winner of the best seat prediction actually turns out to be the winner of the contest over all - RidingByRiding. He also had one of the better seat projection models this campaign, so give the man's blog a look.

1. RidingbyRiding 15 out of 20
2. Wheatsheaf 15
3. DL 14
4. Mackenzie Bowell 14
5. Brent 14
6. Invisible Hand 12
7. Marc Bernard 12
8. A View from the Left 12
9. Saphorr 12
10. Dave Cournoyer 12
11. Scott in Montreal 12
12. David Climenhaga 11
13. Jay Michi 11
14. Aidan Hayes 11
15. Anon 6:59 pm 11
16. Judith Davies 10
17. Mr. Rectifier 10
18. Bruce Stewart 10
19. Nbpolitoco 10
20. Terry G 10
21. Robert Vollman 10
22. Ian 10
23. Derek Raymaker 10

Everyone else had under 10 correct, so I won't embarass you by posting the full standings. But by all means, you can request your score either in the comments section or over e-mail.

I also did an informal query on election day asking for your updated predictions. On that one, "Brian from Toronto", was the closest to the mark, predicting: CPC 155, NDP 105, Lib 24, BQ 18.


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