Monday, April 18, 2011

Scoreboard Watching

As we enter the stretch drive on the campaign trail, I figured I'd check in on the "20 questions" pool, to see if the campaign has unfolded as people expected it would.

Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42% (63% said over)

While Harper's numbers have been consistently below 40% of late, he did sneak over in one early Nanos poll, sparing me from having to rule on whether or not I would accept the COMPAS 45% as a legitimate poll.

Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate? (median: 13, mean: 120,653)

By my count, there was only one mention. A View from the Left is the closest at "0", but I'm willing to hand out points to anyone who said 5 or below.

Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? (Ignatieff 39%, Layton 24%, Harper 22%, Duceppe 10%)

Despite Layton's tour-de-force, the instant polls all showed Harper as the winner.

Mulcair or Cauchon in Outremont? (73% predicted Mulcair)

A CROP poll from a few weeks back had Mulcair leading by 20 points...and this was before the NDP surge in Quebec. I wouldn't want to count out Martin Cauchon, but in the battle of leadership aspirants, Mulcair is certainly the odds-on favourite at this point.

Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (73% said the Tories)

We've seen some blood in the water of late, but I feel like the harshest stuff is yet to come.

Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign? (33% said yes)

So far, the answer is a no. A "yes" here would likely give us a new contender on the previous question.

Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign? (21% said yes)

Unless Tony Clement was in the crowd on that Summit Series footage, still no Cabinet Ministers as of yet.

Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad? (29% said yes)

Sweater vests are so 2008 - our fragile economic recovery calls for a suit and tie.


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