Thursday, October 08, 2009

This Week in Alberta - Poll Results More Difficult to Interpret than an Ed Stelmach Speech

No, not those polls. There's not much I can say about those that hasn't already been said. Suffice to say it's likely a good thing we're not in an election campaign right now.

No, today's polling update comes from Alberta:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

There's certainly some Wildrose momentum there. But until they actually pick a leader and let people know a bit about their party, it's a fairly futile task to ask voters who they'd vote for. For all intents and purposes, that 21.5% is just a "Stelmach sucks" vote at this point, and nothing more.

Basically, Alberta is in Buffalo Springfield territory now: There's something happening here, What it is ain't exactly clear. Come back to me in January after Albertans meet the new Wildrose leader, after Stelmach's leadership review, after all this floor crossing gossip either materializes or fizzles. That's the poll I'll be very curious to look at.

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  • It's interesting how prescient the whole song is. It could very well just spell out the next election.

    By Blogger Matthew Naylor, at 9:50 p.m.  

  • Stelmach might even be saved by the Wild Rose Alliance. If the "Stelmach sucks" vote were to coalesce behind a single party he'd be cooked.

    Also, the geography of opposition to Stelmach may work in his favour. The Liberals have some support (less than in 2008), but it is mostly in cities, and it is less than PC support in those same cities. The WRA has some support but it is (I presume) mostly rural.

    I think the real question in the short term is whether the mere realization that there is a viable (non-Liberal) alternative to the PC's destroys the inevitability factor.

    Moreover, as a compromise candidate without a strong base of caucus support, Stelmach may be vulnerable to friendly fire. A big factor is whether potential claimants to the throne figure they have a shot (and how Stelmach fares in any leadership reviews).

    On the other hand, it could be as many as four years till the next election. Stelmach has a solid majority, and is likely to see good times ahead. Once the economy recovers, oil prices will go up again, and some discontent will be quieted.

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 9:59 p.m.  

  • Actually, the Wildrose strength is primarily urban when Calgary is viewed. The Liberals are trailing pretty much all around aside from Edmonton. The poll breakdown is here:

    Not bad for a party with no leader.

    By Anonymous C.Morgan, at 11:19 p.m.  

  • It doesn't reflect well on the Alta Libs, does it? Ater all, they're actually polling behind the party without a leader, a platform, or a raison d'etre beyond frustration with the status quo.

    By Anonymous herringchoker, at 1:18 a.m.  

  • The word "Liberal" in Alberta is political poison. Someone in Alberta who supports the Liberals is the equivalent of a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.

    But the PCs have been in power since 1971 -- time to vote the bums out. As long as the Wildrose candidate in my district is not some criminal or from the dregs from the bottom rungs of society, I'll be voting for them.

    By Blogger hitfan, at 3:13 a.m.  

  • These pollings herald coming changes in Alberta politics, none of which bode well for the Alberta Liberal Party, lead by a fool. The ALP missed the boat when they elected Swann as Leader.

    By Anonymous John Murney, at 6:02 a.m.  

  • John Murney said: "The ALP missed the boat when they elected Swann as Leader."

    Yep. If Dave Taylor was elected as Lib leader, even I would have considered voting Liberal for the first time.

    As far as the WRAP, it's an anti-Ed protest party as far as I'm concerned until it becomes a pragmatic party with sound policies, good candidates, and knows how to priortize those policies.

    By Blogger Mike B., at 12:40 p.m.  

  • Matthew Naylor, WTF are you talking about? I thought CG was stretching in the first place, and now you assert that a song about the Kent State killings is somehow prescient to Alberta politics this week/month/two years from now. Like, say what? Please illuminate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:38 p.m.  

  • Oh sh--, before someone else points it out, me Anonymous at 6:38 might have confused his 60s Buffalo Springfield with his Emerson, Lake and Young.
    Maybe they're right about that marijuana/memory thing. "Roll another one, just like the other one, pass it over to me..."

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:52 p.m.  

  • I'm assuming that the Alberta Liberal support is primarily concentrated in Calgary and Edmonton, and basically nonexistent in rural Alberta, and Wild Rose support is primarily concentrated in rural Alberta and basically nonexistent in Calgary and Edmonton.

    Which means that Liberal and Wild Rose numbers are stronger than their provincial averages would indicate, where their strongholds are, meaning that the Progressive Conservatives have some risk of having seats picked off in both the rural and urban areas of the province -- just by different parties. Am I right?

    By Blogger James Bow, at 11:37 p.m.  

  • Full results of the opinion survey:

    James check out the results. Support for the Liberals is generally consistent across the province (Yes, Edmonton is higher and 'north' region is lower).

    hatrock said...
    "If Dave Taylor was elected as Lib leader, even I would have considered voting Liberal for the first time."

    When exactly were you doing this voting?

    Swann became ALP leader AFTER the last provincial election.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:48 a.m.  

  • Federal and provincial Liberals suck,even more than Stelmach.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:10 p.m.  

  • A lot of helpful data for myself!

    By Anonymous, at 3:08 a.m.  

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