Sunday, May 31, 2009

Your May Poll Soup

Even though May's a good month for horse racing, there haven't been a lot of horse race polls out lately (well, outside of Quebec anyways).

Ipsos Reid (May 20-24, n = 1000)
Lib 33%
CPC 35%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (May 6-10, n = 1500)
Lib 35%
CPC 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Decima (April 23 to May 3, n = 1000)
Lib 34%
CPC 29%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Nanos (April 25 to April 30, n = 1000)
Lib 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

MEAN (change since April in brackets)
Lib 34.5% (+0.5%)
CPC 31.8% (no change)
NDP 15.0% (-0.2%)
BQ 9.0% (-0.4%)
Green 9.8% (+1.8%)

With only one of these polls coming after the attack ads aired, it's still too early to judge their effectiveness. In Quebec, there appears to have been a marginally negative effect on impressions of Ignatieff, but no real erosion in his support levels. According to Decima, the ads soured opinions of Ignatieff for 30% of Canadians, and made 50% of voters think less of Harper. Which is swell, until you consider that the "not a leader ads", now considered to have destroyed Dion, were judged to be unfair and irrelevant by most Canadians polled on the subject.

So, we'll have to wait for the next few rounds of polling updates, before we can really judge their impact.


Ontario: Ipsos has McGuinty up 46% to 31% on the leader-less PCs, with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) failing to make much of a dent. But cheer up opposition, Nanos has Ontarians against the HST by a 67% to 23% margin.

Nova Scotia: CRA has the NDP at 37%, the Liberals at 31%, and the incumbent Tories at 28% - but an "issues" poll does show the Liberals as the most trusted on the economy.

National: Strategic Counsel has an interesting poll out, comparing the Ignatieff and Harper on a host of issues and characteristics.

UPDATE: New numbers from ARS...and Ekos. Obviously should have waited a day for the update.

UPDATE - 2: Interesting results from Angus Reid:

After disclosing their voting intention, respondents to this survey were divided into three groups. The first group observed one of the television ads that the Conservative Party has launched targeting Ignatieff, the second group was shown the same ad and the response that Ignatieff posted on YouTube, and the third group was not exposed to any ads or videos.

The momentum score for Harper among respondents who saw the ad is -40 (10% improved, 50% worsened), and the prime minister posts similar numbers among those who saw the ad and the video (9% improved, 52% worsened) and those who were not exposed directly to either the ad or the video (7% improved, 49% worsened).

The momentum score for Ignatieff among respondents who saw the ad is -18 (24% improved, 42% worsened). However, the opposition leader bridges the gap with those who also saw his YouTube video (29% improved, 31% worsened) and is even among those who did not see the ad or the video (28% improved, 28% worsened).



  • Looking back at the April entry, I don't see an Ipsos poll listed there. Did they do one last month to compare this one to?

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 4:56 p.m.  

  • The Conservative ads against Iggy don't do much except make him look silly. That image of Iggy going down the escalator blowing kisses undermines any idea of him as a serious leader.
    I expect the NDP will be more vicious. Disturbing images of the turmoil in Iraq and torture, with selected quotes from Ignatieff.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 5:27 p.m.  

  • I realize you can't prove a negative, but my husband and I have been polled for Ekos and Angus Reid in the last couple of weeks, and neither of those polls have surfaced, so the obvious conclusion is that they were not good for the Liberals.

    I would also note that 3 of your polls are REALLY old.

    By Blogger jad, at 6:35 p.m.  

  • "I realize you can't prove a negative, but my husband and I have been polled for Ekos and Angus Reid in the last couple of weeks, and neither of those polls have surfaced, so the obvious conclusion is that they were not good for the Liberals."Are you guys ever going to get tired of this myth that the media and everyone is out to get you, is biased to the hilt against Conservatives?

    Even leaving aside the most ridiculously obvious point that none of these polling companies only do public polling that gets published, what a ridiculous statement.

    By Blogger Old School Liberal, at 10:18 p.m.  

  • Strategic Council/CTV Globe poll taken May 26-28, and they call this a national poll?

    '' technical note ''
    ''Results are based on a national sample size of 1,000 voting-age Canadians with an over-sample of 500 respondents from Quebec.''

    By Blogger wilson, at 11:24 p.m.  

  • wilson - I suspect that means they did 1000 national interviews AND another 500 from Quebec. But it would be weighted by region, to make it representative.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:12 a.m.  

  • And to show exactly just how stupid Jad's point is, what do you know but here's an EKOS poll and here's an Ispos Reid poll.

    And what do you know, the ads are backfiring more than they are working, with half of Canadians polled thinking worse of Harper as a result of the ads and the Liberals maintaining their lead in the key battlegrounds in Ontario and Quebec and gaining on the Conservatives in BC.

    With these kind of results, I can't wait for the next round of Conservative personal attack ads.

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 9:18 a.m.  

  • If these ads are making 30-40% of people admit that they make them think worse of Ignatieff, then they are some of the most succesful attack ads ever. No one likes to admit attack ads work on them.

    Who care what it makes people think of Harper? That's just the usual "i hate attack ads" shit.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:25 a.m.  

  • Harper should have let the coalition kick him out, let them govern during this difficult time, and let their numbers plummet.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:09 a.m.  

  • I only listen to Nanos, he is the only good pollster in all of Canada

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:24 p.m.  

  • Might want to update those Nova Scotia numbers:

    The NDP have surged ahead in popularity, according to a new poll conducted for the CBC.

    The survey, conducted by Corporate Research Associates and released by the CBC this morning, said the NDP were the choice of 44 per cent of decided voters. The Liberals were second with 28 per cent and the Tories were third with 26 per cent. The Greens were the choice of two per cent.

    By Blogger JG, at 4:29 p.m.  

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