Sunday, May 31, 2009

Your May Poll Soup

Even though May's a good month for horse racing, there haven't been a lot of horse race polls out lately (well, outside of Quebec anyways).

Ipsos Reid (May 20-24, n = 1000)
Lib 33%
CPC 35%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (May 6-10, n = 1500)
Lib 35%
CPC 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Decima (April 23 to May 3, n = 1000)
Lib 34%
CPC 29%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Nanos (April 25 to April 30, n = 1000)
Lib 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

MEAN (change since April in brackets)
Lib 34.5% (+0.5%)
CPC 31.8% (no change)
NDP 15.0% (-0.2%)
BQ 9.0% (-0.4%)
Green 9.8% (+1.8%)



With only one of these polls coming after the attack ads aired, it's still too early to judge their effectiveness. In Quebec, there appears to have been a marginally negative effect on impressions of Ignatieff, but no real erosion in his support levels. According to Decima, the ads soured opinions of Ignatieff for 30% of Canadians, and made 50% of voters think less of Harper. Which is swell, until you consider that the "not a leader ads", now considered to have destroyed Dion, were judged to be unfair and irrelevant by most Canadians polled on the subject.

So, we'll have to wait for the next few rounds of polling updates, before we can really judge their impact.


ALSO...

Ontario: Ipsos has McGuinty up 46% to 31% on the leader-less PCs, with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) failing to make much of a dent. But cheer up opposition, Nanos has Ontarians against the HST by a 67% to 23% margin.

Nova Scotia: CRA has the NDP at 37%, the Liberals at 31%, and the incumbent Tories at 28% - but an "issues" poll does show the Liberals as the most trusted on the economy.

National: Strategic Counsel has an interesting poll out, comparing the Ignatieff and Harper on a host of issues and characteristics.


UPDATE: New numbers from ARS...and Ekos. Obviously should have waited a day for the update.

UPDATE - 2: Interesting results from Angus Reid:

After disclosing their voting intention, respondents to this survey were divided into three groups. The first group observed one of the television ads that the Conservative Party has launched targeting Ignatieff, the second group was shown the same ad and the response that Ignatieff posted on YouTube, and the third group was not exposed to any ads or videos.

The momentum score for Harper among respondents who saw the ad is -40 (10% improved, 50% worsened), and the prime minister posts similar numbers among those who saw the ad and the video (9% improved, 52% worsened) and those who were not exposed directly to either the ad or the video (7% improved, 49% worsened).

The momentum score for Ignatieff among respondents who saw the ad is -18 (24% improved, 42% worsened). However, the opposition leader bridges the gap with those who also saw his YouTube video (29% improved, 31% worsened) and is even among those who did not see the ad or the video (28% improved, 28% worsened).

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