Monday, February 12, 2007

It's Raining Polls

I've been out of town for the past few days so I'll be posting a scatter-shot of catch up news stories today. To get things rolling, here's a look at a recent SES poll:

Most Trustworthy Leader
Harper 35% (+14)
Dion 20% (Martin - 18%)
Duceppe 8% (-3)
Layton 18% (-7)
May 8% (Harris - 3%)

Most Competent Leader
Harper 41% (+17)
Dion 22% (Martin - 28%)
Duceppe 8% (No change)
Layton 13% (-4)
May 4% (Harris - 2%)

Best Vision for Canada
Harper 39% (+14)
Dion 21% (Martin - 25%)
Duceppe 5% (-1)
Layton 16% (-2)
May 7% (Harris - 3%)

The only one that really surprises me is the Harper numbers on "best vision for Canada". Everything else is predictable: Dion's low in most categories because he's new, Steve has the Prime Ministerial advantage, and the NDP scores well on vision and trust but low on competence.

But Canadians liking the Harper vision? Hmm....


  • Harper has enunciated a clear vision of a united Canada (despite the fumblings of certain Liberal leadership candidates), and clearly wants to reduce pollution and GHG emissions within Canada (despite Dion's apparent desire to pay the Chinese to increase emissions there).

    By Blogger Paul, at 2:57 p.m.  

  • Interesting conclusions. I don't know how you call 16% for the NDP vision "scoring well". And although he is new as leader, Dion is not a new face in politics. Maybe he scores low because voters already know him.

    By Blogger Keith Richmond, at 3:46 p.m.  

  • The Gong show has started in Quebec

    I cant wait to seel the Bloc's numbers by the end of the provincial election.

    By Blogger Anthony, at 4:30 p.m.  

  • People like that Harper is a clear and concise leader, and that reflects in the "vision for Canada" numbers.

    I don't for a minute believe that those strong numbers will necessarily transform into votes, but it is certainly a positive. The Liberal spin machine is trying its darnedest to try and define Harper as something negative, and it is just not working.

    Oh, and by the way, some of you know I come from a pretty right wing point of view, but the CPC's ads trying to Dion I think was pretty amateurish. I don't disagree with the concept, but come on guys, we have seen better ads on YouTube!

    By Blogger Andy, at 4:38 p.m.  

  • I think you can claim the "competency" score (a whopping 28% drop from PMPM's score) as the product of a new leader - but it is a bit of a stretch, given that Dion was in Cabinet for the past decade. New leader or not, "competency" has been the Liberal's big calling card - if Dion doesn't get that mojo working he is in big trouble.

    I think it is more difficult to deal with the "trustworthy" score - opposition leaders don't get much chance to demonstrate trustworthiness since they can't deliver on promises, so Dion has to wait for Harper to demonstrate untrustworthiness. As can be seen, so far that trend is in the wrong direction for the Liberals.

    By Blogger deaner, at 4:39 p.m.  

  • Well, there is one thing that you can say about the people of Canada, they like that Harper likes Beer and Popcorn.

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 4:41 p.m.  

  • What I find most suprising is that one the day before the election 22% were in the "None of the above/Undecided" column.

    By Blogger Leny Vilekoskytch, at 4:52 p.m.  

  • "(a whopping 28% drop from PMPM's score)"

    I think what the results are trying to indicate is that Martin scored 28%, compared with newcomer Dion's 22%.

    This is much clearer in the actual report, given at the link indicated in the post.

    By Blogger Paul, at 4:56 p.m.  

  • "I think what the results are trying to indicate..."

    Yes - the presentation is different for Dion and May than for the leaders who haven't changed since the election. Still not good news for Dion, but not quite the disaster I painted...

    By Blogger deaner, at 5:09 p.m.  

  • I agree with most here: Harper is perceived as decisive and therefore having vision (and it's true besides). The Prime Ministerial advantage is that it is in exercising power that Harper is decisive. My question is whether the poll prompts Harper to roll the dice, or wait. I can't decide.

    Re the ads, the "amateur" ones worked quite well last election. The raw feel is sort of a prophylactic, as was the fact that the focus was Liberals attacking Liberals.

    By Blogger matt, at 5:36 p.m.  

  • "Yes - the presentation is different for Dion and May than for the leaders who haven't changed since the election."

    If it makes anyone feel better, CTV NewsNet fell for the confusion as well: when the numbers were presented on Mike Duffy Live, they illustrated the Greens as having dropped, instead of rising.

    By Blogger Paul, at 5:45 p.m.  

  • Thanks, Paul - you mean I am no smarter than Mike Duffy?!? You sure know how to hurt a guy!

    By Blogger deaner, at 6:19 p.m.  

  • A 'united Canada'? What, a firewall in every province?
    His vision has been amazingly scattershot, but give the guy credit for reading the polls and listening to his focus groups and responding a month later by dusting off the former gov't's policy... What i am astounded with is the lack of financial clarity in the so-called former accountant's past year. He cuts gst, raises taxes, provide a blitzkreig of mini-tax breaks for people who tie their left shoe first with a sailor's knot, promises to solve fiscal imbalance, flushes down $20billion of people's money, hands out contracts on military spending as tho it were Chuckycheese coupons, promises another gst cut... Has anyone else looked at Harpor's finance guy's record of running a budget? Why aren't we all crapping our pants?

    By Blogger burlivespipe, at 6:34 p.m.  

  • Yeah, sorry if there was any confusion on the Martin numbers...Paul was never that high.

    Really, Dion is about where Martin was at the end of the last campaign. I don't think that should be too concerning since he's a new opposition leader. Harper trailled Martin in these polls before the '06 election but passed him quickly once the campaign started.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:31 p.m.  

  • The only thing Dion can pass is the crack pipe that he's been smoking if he thinks he's ever going to be PM.

    Mulroney throttled Turner in the english debate and the campaign was effectively over. And Turner spoke english fluently.

    Dion will get slayed in the english language debate and his lukewarm support will tank.

    If you doubt this then please check out the thats unfair clip from the attack ads. If Dion did that in a national english language debate it would be game set and match.

    By Blogger renegadejet, at 7:57 p.m.  

  • Canadian voters are a fickle lot, aren't they? On the one hand, people like Dion's somewhat honest appearance, on the other hand, Harper's decisive nature (albeit scattershot as mentioned here already) is rare in Canadian politics.

    Anyway, the following attack ad parody sums up what I think most voters find appealing about Harper:

    He'll do

    By Blogger Sean Cummings, at 8:09 p.m.  

  • Typically when a new leader of a party is elected, the MSM give him/her a holiday during which time the new leader rides high in the polls (relatively at least), and not just the one where "who would you most likely vote for"; but also the ones in the most recent SES survey- "which leader is the most trustworthy", which leader has the best vision" etc.
    Why do these polled characteristics not apply now, would it have anything to do with the fact that Mr. Dion polled very low on all of the questions?
    The Dion spin is very amusing. Rather than denial, lets face it, "He didn't get it done".

    By Blogger Kyoto Cowboy, at 10:56 a.m.  

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    By Blogger jacklinemelda, at 4:09 a.m.  

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