Saturday, December 02, 2006

Late Night Reaction

Since I'm fairly sure no delegates will be reading blogs much tomorrow, the following opinions are pretty much free of spin since no one reading them has a vote:

1. Today was fun. I mean, repeating the same chant over and over again and marching in seemingly aimless directions for hours on end doesn't sound like much fun but, man, it was. Compared to 2003 when myself and the other Sheila Copps delegates spent the weekend crying in small corners by ourselves, this was what a convention should be like. I also think the need to work people over on the subsequent ballots has done wonders to bring people together the way one member one vote never could. So I'm definitely glad that delegated conventions will continue.

2. The results:

Michael Ignatieff: 1,412 votes, 29.3 per cent (29.3 per cent)
Bob Rae: 977 votes, 20.3 per cent (20.1 per cent)
Stephane Dion: 856 votes, 17.8 per cent (16 per cent)
Gerard Kennedy: 854 votes, 17.7 per cent (17.5 per cent)
Ken Dryden: 238 votes, 4.9 per cent (5.1 per cent)
Scott Brison: 192 votes, 4 per cent (3.9 per cent)
Joe Volpe: 156 votes, 3.2 per cent (4.8 per cent)
Martha Hall Findlay: 130 votes, 2.7 per cent (1 per cent)

3. Lots of talk about the Rae-Volpe ticket in the hospitality suites last night which will probably do Rae more harm than good. There were also a few jokes about Joe providing the pizza for the Bob Rae hospitality suite...

4. Dion appears to have picked off a lot of Iggy ex-officios. I just don't see a scenario where Ignatieff can win this thing now - the real question is how quickly his delegates realize this. If the bleed is quick, that helps Dion and Kennedy more so than a stall which keeps him on the ballot long enough for Rae to beat him at the end.

5. The 2 vote spread between Kennedy and Dion should make rounds 2 and 3 very interesting as they go back and forth for that coveted third spot. We'll see just how much coming out against the Harper nation motion helped Gerard on round 2 since that's when people who were committed to other candidates on round 1 will be able to cross over.

6. That said, it's not completely impossible for both Kennedy and Dion to pass Rae. Hell, we could wind up with all four candidates around 25% by the time you hit round 3. This thing is really unpredictable.

7. Gerard had some bad luck with a lot of Alberta delegates being disqualified on a Rae protest, a dozen being stuck in BC due to plane delays, and one woman fainting while in line to vote.

8. Dryden will stay on the ballot, Martha will announce who she supports tomorrow morning, and Brison's status is up in the air.

9. As for the speeches, I didn't get to see all of them because of campaign work but I will say that Gerard kicked some serious ass. I had two delegates from other campaigns tell me he hit a "homerun" and his French sounded really good (of course, that might just be because I had to listen to Mark Tewskbury the night before). Gerard reminded people of what it means to be a Liberal and laid out what the party needs to do to return to power. I think Justin Trudeau was a much more effective introduction than the lengthy video montages we saw from some other candidates.

10. Speaking of which, say what you will about him, but Justin Trudeau is a campaigning machine, if nothing else. I don't think there's a single person in Montreal (including the candidates themselves) who has shook more hands or been in more pictures than Justin. He's been a machine this weekend.

11. For interest's sake, the 1996 Ontario Liberal first ballot:

Kennedy 30.1%
Cordiano 21.8%
Duncan 18.1%
McGuinty 17.6% (14 votes back of third)

Hmm... And it should be noted that McGuinty lost ground and was 34 votes back on the second ballot, before pulling ahead. I could see the same situation repeating itself if Gerard were to get an endorsement from, say, Ken Dryden, after the second ballot.

12. I don't think I'll have time for much blogging tomorrow since I'll be doing campaign stuff but if Kennedy does drop, I'm grabbing my lap top from the hotel and live blogging the rest of the thing.



    Second to last paragraph translatıon : We wıll see ıf Stephane Dıon poor permanence and Gerard Kennedy great one wıll get Dıon to the fourth place then to drop.

    It ıs the fırst tıme ı ever see a good thıng wrıtten on Quebec newspapers about Gerard - I thınk you re wınnıng steam.

    By Blogger Christopher Young, at 3:47 a.m.  

  • As someone who's not a Kennedy supporter, I will say that he delivered a very good speech that may well have been the best of the evening. Bob Rae's poor taste "vegetable joke" was offensive and shameful, and plants a seed of ill will that will damage bipartisanship (as if it needs any more damage) should he *shudder* win. "Oh I thought we were all vegetables? And now you want our help?"

    By Blogger RGM, at 6:32 a.m.  

  • Rae's joke was about members of Harper's cabinet. I really doubt he's counting on much support from them.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 9:33 a.m.  

  • Dude you're on TV!!

    By Blogger RGM, at 10:37 a.m.  

  • Yeah heaven forbid the parties work together for the sake of Canada, right?

    By Blogger RGM, at 10:37 a.m.  

  • RB - it's the poor taste, not the target that counts. And the bad jokes were just one of many reasons the speech was not very good.

    By Blogger Gavin Magrath, at 11:02 a.m.  

  • I don't think Dion gave a bad speech at all - do the candidates have a timer letting them know exactly how much time they have left?

    Agreed on Rae's joke - and his speech - it was pretty unmemorable and the guy can't tell a joke properly. He utterly messed up the punchline.

    Second ballot results in <10min!

    By Blogger JG, at 11:26 a.m.  

  • It's over for us now. Dryden going to Rae means there's no way we can make up the 100 vote difference.

    Too bad.

    By Blogger Shawn, at 12:05 p.m.  

  • So... where is Kennedy going?

    By Blogger JG, at 12:07 p.m.  

  • The 2nd Ballot was just announced. As expected, the ex-officio votes helped Dion more than Kennedy.

    Kennedy throws to Dion. But, Dion has to get 80% of Kennedy's delegates in order to be sure of leaping ahead. Dion will win once he is number one.

    However, nothing is settled if Dion doesn't clearly get ahead of Rae and Ignatieff. In this situation, anything could happen.

    Ignatieff looks like he is defeated already. While Rae is the best deal maker and will try to go out fighthing.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:46 p.m.  

  • It's too bad Kennedy didn't make it, but Dion was my second choice. So GO DION GO!!!

    By Blogger Harrap, at 12:58 p.m.  

  • Allez Dion, allez!!

    (I may just have to vote Liberal for the first time if he wins... too bad Brison, my MP, didn't go where he should have.)

    Incidentally, let's make this a real Rae Day for Bob!

    By Blogger JG, at 1:04 p.m.  

  • I'm interested in the mood among Kennedy and Dryden voters: if they split +50 to Iggy, +400 to Rae (including many of Dryden's), and +550 to Dion, we could get a three-way tie (give or take a few ballots). I guess we'll know in a couple hours.

    By Blogger Paul, at 1:16 p.m.  

  • One Kennedy delegate was saying that "80-90 percent" of Kennedy people are going to Dion.

    By Blogger JG, at 1:21 p.m.  

  • I think we can all be proud of Gerard for the campaign he put on. From an unknown federally - lets face it, no one knew him out of Ontario - to 4th place on the ballot with 18.8%.

    By Blogger Shawn, at 1:35 p.m.  

  • And if matters hold, he will be the Kingmaker.

    By Blogger JG, at 1:36 p.m.  

  • Third ballot. Dion does it. Rae releases his delegates. Ignatieff needs 60% of Rae's delegates. Impossible?

    We need to note that none of the front runners are indidvidually strong. The Liberal Party needs a platform of unity.

    Everyone has to pull together. Can Dion do it?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:49 p.m.  

  • WOW!

    Kennedy sways tide away from Rae and over to Dion.

    Who would have thunk it?

    Not that it matters at all, but Dion seems to have a hint of integrity clearly missing in chamilion Bob Rae. = TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 2:50 p.m.  

  • Dryden's support of Rae was the nail in Kennedy's coffin. Had he supported Kennedy instead, I think Kennedy would have stayed in for one more ballot and tried to get ahead of Dion. I think had he done that, he would have won the race. So Dryden's move forced Kennedy's hand, and in turn, that screwed Rae. Hopefully, Kennedy sticks around for another go. I suspect that we may see another Harper government after the next election call, and if it's a majority Harper government as I predict it will be, Dion will cede his place and we'll be doing this again very soon...

    By Blogger Jasen, at 3:18 p.m.  

  • Dion can pull Quebec and not offend Ontario. Question is Albereta and the West.

    Dion has little personal baggage..= TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 3:21 p.m.  

  • To be clear, a Conservative (or any) majority is pretty much impossible mathematically. Harper would need to add 30 seats to secure a bare majority - he's not going to find them in the West or the Atlantic region, and he'd have a hard time getting more than a handful more in Quebec. But Dion has no negative baggage in Ontario, and Harper will not be able to run against the Liberals effectively a second time.

    By Blogger JG, at 3:29 p.m.  

  • I was not defending Rae's joke, I was pointing out the target was not, as rgm indicates, the other candidates.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 9:50 a.m.  

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