Now, I'm certainly not in the loop on any high level negotiations but, from the outside, this seems like a logical alliance for both men. Both need to pass Bob Rae to get to the final ballot and they probably won't be able to do it without help from the other. Kennedy needs a high profile Quebec endorsement and Dion needs Kennedy's Ontario delegates after his tough showing there. Given that Kennedy and his campaign think they'll beat out Dion for third place on ballot 2 and Dion and his campaign think they'll beat out Gerard for third place on ballot 2, you're left with the perfect situation for a shotgun deal. From a game theory perspective alone, such an alliance is natural.
Obviously delegates will make up their own mind but after talking to people at the convention, I really get the sense that a lot of Dion delegates see Gerard as an acceptable second choice and vice versa. Both are young, have deep Liberal roots, and a proven track record in politics. On policy, they seem to be onside on most major issues. Just this week, Dion has followed Kennedy's lead on Afghanistan in calling for a withdrawal if the mandate isn't changed.
We'll obviously hear hundreds of rumours and scenarios over the next 2 days but this seems like the path of least resistance to Stornoway for both men. With Kennedy and Dion nipping on the heels of Bob Rae, a deal would allow the beneficiary to blow past Rae and onto the final ballot against a wounded Michael Ignatieff.