Friday, December 01, 2006

Synergies

The little rumour which has been floating around for a few weeks about a Kennedion alliance seems to be gaining steam. (article also quotes Bob Rae saying what a swell guy Joe Volpe is)

Now, I'm certainly not in the loop on any high level negotiations but, from the outside, this seems like a logical alliance for both men. Both need to pass Bob Rae to get to the final ballot and they probably won't be able to do it without help from the other. Kennedy needs a high profile Quebec endorsement and Dion needs Kennedy's Ontario delegates after his tough showing there. Given that Kennedy and his campaign think they'll beat out Dion for third place on ballot 2 and Dion and his campaign think they'll beat out Gerard for third place on ballot 2, you're left with the perfect situation for a shotgun deal. From a game theory perspective alone, such an alliance is natural.

Obviously delegates will make up their own mind but after talking to people at the convention, I really get the sense that a lot of Dion delegates see Gerard as an acceptable second choice and vice versa. Both are young, have deep Liberal roots, and a proven track record in politics. On policy, they seem to be onside on most major issues. Just this week, Dion has followed Kennedy's lead on Afghanistan in calling for a withdrawal if the mandate isn't changed.

We'll obviously hear hundreds of rumours and scenarios over the next 2 days but this seems like the path of least resistance to Stornoway for both men. With Kennedy and Dion nipping on the heels of Bob Rae, a deal would allow the beneficiary to blow past Rae and onto the final ballot against a wounded Michael Ignatieff.

9 Comments:

  • Both are young...

    Stéphane Dion is 51 years old.

    P.S. Where can I find the speaking order for the candidates' speeches on Friday?

    By Blogger Political Outsider, at 11:52 PM  

  • I hope this turns out to be true as Dion is my first choice, but Kennedy would be me second choice. I voted in the DSM although I am not a delegate at the convention.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 12:02 AM  

  • The fact that both are young is precisely why they make poor allies - both are in this for the long haul.

    Further, even if there is an endorsement, they have very different appeals to delegates, so it is uncertain that the delegates will move. Gerard Kennedy is charismatic and unsubstantive, while Dion is the opposite. Further, Dion is strong on the national unity issue, whereas this is Kennedy's weakpoint.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:25 AM  

  • And isn't Kennedy 47? That's the same age as Stephen Harper and no one ever calls our Prime Minister young.

    By Blogger Alex, at 1:15 AM  

  • Big problems folks.

    The Ignatieff team are wanting to face off against Bob Rae on the final ballot.

    The will use their numbers to knock off anyone but Rae by directing 300 to 400 votes on each ballot to any candidate other than Rae.

    Make your choices early

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 2:00 AM  

  • Hoser: The fact that their strengths and weaknesses align so well is a positive, not a negative. As for both being young, you have a point but frankly I hope we can expect leaders that are not so self-centered as to sulk and pout becauwithout the prime.

    And on that point, we know that Gerard is exactly that kind of leader, as his history in the McGuinty government shows.

    By Blogger Gavin Magrath, at 9:21 AM  

  • Down and Out: wait until the first ballot. With so many undecideds and ex officios, as well as disillusioned Iggy delegates who have seen one gaffe too many, I doubt very much that his campaign can afford to lend anyone 300 or 400 votes. That's about TEN PERCENT! If Iggy loses two percent and comes in below 30%, his campaign is finished. You relly think they will do that to themselves voluntarily??

    By Blogger Gavin Magrath, at 9:23 AM  

  • Martin's BC Boys Back Dion

    http://thetyee.ca/Views/2006/11/30/Liberals/

    An article by Bill Tieleman explains how the majority of Paul Martin's overly aggressive BC organizers are now behind Stephane Dion. Dion is something of a protege of BC Premier Gordon Campbell.

    By Blogger Budd Campbell, at 2:37 PM  

  • Joe Volpe is the first of the 4 trailing Liberal Leadership candidates to throw their support. In a clearly staged event Joe Volpe made his way through the crowed convention floor and raised his hands with second place candidate Bob Rae immediately following Michael Ignatieff’s speech. A move designed to steal Ignatieff’s thunder by shifting the focus of convention delegates from the final speaker’s words to the “momentum building” Rae campaign. For viewers at home, the move was not surprising as pundits had received word of the maneuver hours before. Clearly a strong tactical move from the Rae campaign - but one that the Ignatieff camp tried to water down by claiming that key Volpe supporters had in fact broke from their first choice candidate and climbed aboard the Ignatieff train. You can bet your ass Liberal delegates will wake up tomorrow morning with a Rae press release slid under the door of their hotel room boasting of the first major scoop of the convention.

    This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone however, as Volpe’s team blamed the Ignatieff campaign for outing allegations of campaign irregularities. Volpe was fined $20,000, however the Liberal party later dropped the fine to a mere $1000. I can’t help but think that such a reversal of the party’s decision must have a pretty interesting background story. Think about it - I mean it was a pretty big decision to fine the guy for that amount right in the middle of a campaign. One would hope it was a decision like that isn’t taken lightly - and then all of a sudden and only a few weeks later the party changes it’s mind? Leaves me wondering if there wasn’t some sort of deal made…you know for support……later on…..like at the convention before the first ballot was even tallied. I’d be interested in knowing how close those who made the decisions in the party are to John Rae - Chrétien foot soldier, Liberal power broker, and brother to Bob Rae. Not pointing fingers….just interested in knowing.

    More... http://changeit.ca/?p=7

    By Blogger Manitoba Dippper, at 12:57 AM  

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