Thursday, September 07, 2006

Projection Mini-Update

Consider this a minor update to my first round ballot projections...or, more appropriately, a correction. It seems, I had the wrong formula in my excel spreadsheet for calculating existing support, which caused a few numbers to be skewed.

I've corrected this and also gone through and used the most recent blogger endorsement (and for those whining about Cerberus' totals, get over it - he's been counting them in a consistent and fair manner so I'll keep using his numbers), MP endorsement, wikipedia endorsement, and media numbers. I've also tinkered with a few of the membership sale numbers due to feedback I received after my first post. Finally, I replaced the "website rankings" with the Democratic Space projections, as part of my formula to find existing support. Just because Hedy Fry's website ranks 5 and Ignatieff's ranks 9, doesn't mean she has over half of the support he does. If more bloggers come up with credible projections, I'll be sure to average them in as well.

What I haven't updated are the fundraising numbers, because I cannot find any site listing the number and total value of donations for all candidates to the end of July, in a format a normal human being could be expected to understand. Once I find some consistent up to date fundraising numbers, I'll post a complete update. I also plan to put my spreadsheet on google spreadsheets this weekend, in order to allow people to scrutinize it. If anyone would like be to send them a copy of the numbers I'm using, just drop me an e-mail and I'll send the sheet to you.

With all that said, here is where the first ballot projections sit:

Ignatieff 26.76%
Kennedy 17.67%
Rae 15.03%
Dion 12.41%
Volpe 10.17%
Dryden 6.90%
Brison 6.58%
Findlay 2.05%
Bennett 1.75%
Fry 0.67%

Truth be told, these numbers seem a bit more intuitively correct to me than the ones I'd previously posted with the glitch. Ignatieff is clearly in front, although he will still need to be a lot of Liberals' second choice if he hopes to win it all. Volpe moves up a bit higher than before but, remember, this is under the assumption that he still controls the Jimmy K forms. Once I manage to get my hands on some credible fundraising numbers, I imagine we'll see a bit of movement in the projections.


  • Not bad, but I do think that you are overestimating Volpe, and underestimating Brison and Dryden. Why? Because you aren't accounting for the regional distribution of support. If balloting was simply proportional, then it would be different. But, since balloting is done on a riding-by-riding basis, it mirrors the distortions that we see in our general elections (i.e. NDP got 18% of vote, but only 9% of seats).

    Volpe's support is largely concentrated in 3 areas: Toronto (22 ridings = 5.2% of delegates), the GTA (22 ridings = 5.2% of delegates), and Montreal/Laval (22 ridings = 5.2% of delegates). So his support is concentrated in areas that account for 15.6% of the delegates. Moreover, his support is almost entirely riding-based (i.e. he has weak ex-officio and club support). Even if he gets 1/3 of all delegates in Toronto, the GTA, and Montreal that only means 5.2% of the delegates (and I doubt he gets 1/3 -- probably more like 20%, remembering that Ignatieff and Rae are strong in TO/Montreal, and MHF and Kennedy will steal some GTA support from Volpe). By my calculations, about 80% of his support is in Toronto, the GTA, and Montreal. So accounting for the rest of the country, plus a few club delegates, I think Volpe should be in the 7% range.

    By contrast, Brison has strong support in the East and in Alberta (which together have nearly as many delegates as Toronto, Montreal and the GTA!), and there are fewer competitors in the East and Alberta. Dryden is similar more broadly-based. He has strong support in the East and Manitoba, and broad-based rural support. This means that Brison's and Dryden's support is likely to be more 'efficient' in translating into delegates than Volpe's.

    By Blogger Gregory D. Morrow, at 10:06 a.m.  

  • I couldn't agree more with the previous post. Dryden and Brison will surprise everyone. THis is the PERFECT situation for both of them as a first ballot that goes IGGY, Rae, kennedy, dion, Dryden, BRison, Volpe, bennett MHF, fry will surprise the campaign floor and be a huge boost for the second ballot. then it will be who amongst kennedy, dion and Dryden becomes the compromise candidate and who brison throws to.

    It's going to be an interesting evening...

    By Blogger Put the Party first, at 10:31 a.m.  

  • I agree it should be an interesting convention -- Iggy's further ahead than I thought he'd be but I still hold by my prediction that an Anyone-But-Iggy candidate will win the leadership (likely either Rae, Dion, or Kennedy).

    I can't see Iggy becoming Liberal Party leader.

    By Blogger Harrap, at 11:07 a.m.  

  • This is really fascinating stuff, CG.

    And interesting counters.

    Very much enjoying following this, as always.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 11:22 a.m.  

  • Well, I can see him as party leader and the ones who's career depend on winning (i.e. MPs) see him as a winner and someone they can work with obviously because he has more caucus support than all of the other candidates put together.

    That being said, I think an anybody-but-Iggy campaign can be a healthy thing for a party (unlike the divisive and Conservative helping "stopiggy" crowd). But "anybody-but" campaigns tend to only coalesce around the least polarizing candidate, with the least sharp edges to their policies and platforms. Think about McGuinty for example or Joe Clark. There was even an anybody-but campaign against Trudeau that never took off sufficiently but did coalesce around bland. So in my mind, an anybody-but campaign could only successfully coalesce around Dion, Brison or Dryden. From those three, only Dion is fluently bilingual so for tactical reasons, I think Iggy opponents would pick him as the best drawing card among delegates.

    But this is all going to be moot. Looking at CG's numbers and looking at the predictions of some others and my own gut on the numbers, these seem pretty correct. The interesting thing is how spread out the support is among the other 9 which means any 2 or 3 moving to Iggy will be more than enough to put him over.

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 11:23 a.m.  

  • Greg Morrow. lol

    On what authority do you know ANYTHING about Volpe's support? lol

    Wishful thinking. See you after the DSMs.

    By Blogger RedMapleLeaf, at 12:16 p.m.  

  • greg morrow; I agree that the regional issues could be crucial. I based 20% of existing support on how the candidates appear to be doing among existing members in the province and I tried to take regional differences into account a bit. For example, Martha has some rural support in AB, so I gave her a bit more than she actually has. And I rarely gave Volpe points here, because he is focused in a few ridings.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Brison and/or Dryden ahead of Volpe, but that's mainly because of the loss of the Jimmy K forms.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:12 p.m.  

  • Ignatieff's campaign has done a good job of manufacturing media attention and building momentum. He's probably broken through the 30% support level by now.

    The convention will probably be a referendum on Ignatieff. He is probably the most electable of all the candidates, but is he the most Liberal? No. That's why he's spending so much time saying the word "Liberal".

    I think it's a choice between "Prime Minister Igantieff" or the "Liberal Leader of the Opposition." That doesn't necessarily mean Ignatieff will win either.

    By Blogger PlaidShirt, at 4:46 p.m.  

  • plaid; Liberals value electability above all else. If a majority of Liberals think Ignatieff is the best bet to win an election, he'll win.

    However, I think a lot of Liberals (myself included) don't neccesarily think he's the best bet to win an election.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:52 p.m.  

  • Indeed CG, with Ignatieff as leader and his record of making rather ill thought out comments, I could see us reliving 1984.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 5:24 p.m.  

  • I'm not a Liberal so I really don't have a dog in this fight so to speak, although if you'd like to elect Volpe or Bob Rae I'd be much obliged. But my analysis would basically be that Liberal's will probably pick the leader who they think will pick up the most support from people who voted for other parties in the last election. If they think Conservative support is soft and bringing back some of Martin's fans is the way to go, then Ignatieff probably is the way to go. If pandering to soft NDP voters is the strategy to follow then Bob Rae or Kennedy probably is the man. If its ressurecting the party in quebec I'd imagine Dion is the guy you want to lead the charge.

    It should be interesting, given that you have Rae and Kennedy squabbling over those voters who want to tact left. Ignatieff leaning rightwards heavily on foreign policy, although being dispictably mushy on domestic policy. While Dion, Dryden and Brison are floating around as compromise candidates. I doubt Brison will wind up on top, he's still a relative newcomer to the Liberal Party and like it or not there is the God Squad in the Liberal Party too and a gay leader may well alienate them.

    I'd probably give Dion the edge as the comprimise candidate as he has a more impressive set of credentials. On the other hand, no one in the race is more vanilla thant Ken Dryden. If it comes down to "who of these candidates do I hate the least" Ken Dryden is your man.

    By Blogger Chris, at 9:02 p.m.  

  • i find it funny that people believe Jimmy K had control over any of Volpe's delegates, except in scarborough agincourt. jimmy k is all talk, hence the 'i might run' rumour he put out.
    brison is going nowhere in alberta, i am sorry. he is nice, smart, and a lot of things, but trust me, he has no base in alberta. same with dryden.
    dion, iggy, volpe and kennedy all sold some out here. kennedy claims to have led the sales over volpe in 2nd place, but i have heard otherwise. brison will be lucky to come in 5th here. period.
    sorry gregory

    By Blogger kenlister1, at 3:08 a.m.  

  • Good post, but I'm glad you've stressed that it largely hypothetical. It's really tough to make predictions but good for you for trying, even if the numbers on which you rely are incorrect.

    Anyone read the Globe article on Rae? They spent the whole time article talking about Rae's disastrous rein as Ontario Premier.

    If that doesn't make it obvious that Bob Rae's time as Premier in Ontario is still an issue for Ontarions, I don't know what will.

    The fact is this: If Bob Rae is leader, the Conservatives will force him to spend a significant portion of the campaign defending his record, which he can't do, and putting Ontario up for grabs.

    Liberals: can you really afford to put Ontario up for grabs?

    By Blogger Concerned YL, at 11:59 a.m.  

  • I agree that Volpe's numbers are inflated. I'd expect to see Volpe at the 5% level at most. I also see Iggy's numbers as inflated; my guess is that he'll probably come out with about 25% tops on the first ballot. Dion will be around 15% given his decent coverage across the country.

    Given the numbers, the wildcard is (in my opinion) Kennedy. It's clear that he will - along with Iggy, Rae and Dion - be in the top-4 on the first ballot. It's his ability to grow that I question. He lacks the name recognition of Dryden and lacks the experience of Dion. But, Kennedy could very conceivably be the king-maker for one of the other frontrunners.

    By Blogger Scarberian, at 10:13 p.m.  

  • Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
    If you have a moment, please have a look at my career salary site.
    Good luck!

    By Blogger Bill Harrison, at 6:57 p.m.  

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