Saturday, December 31, 2005

Week(s) in Review

Well, with the campaigns shut down over the holidays weeks 4 and 5 were predictably dull and...what?...HOLY CRAP!

Weekly Winner: Judy Wasylycia Leis. She sent to the RCMP to investigate the Income Trusts and then broke the story this week when they told her they'd oblidge.

Weekly Loser: Paul Martin. I've tried to stay away from picking party leaders for weekly winners and losers, but it's been a bad, bad week for Paul Martin. You'd have to have some strong stuff in the kool-aid to think anything else.

The Polls: There's not a lot of recent polling data out there, but here's the average of the most recent SES, Ipsos, Leger, and SC polls:

Lib: 34.5% (115)
CPC: 31% (107)
NDP: 15.75% (23)
BQ: 13.5% (62)

The Gamblers: Things are really tightening up in the UBC election stock market.

Lib: 32.6%
CPC: 32.5%
NDP: 16.1%
BQ: 13.1%

Blog of the Week: Was there any doubt? Mike Klander takes this one hands down.

Scott Feschuck Line of the Week:

"for months, I though LOL was some snappy new verb that Webster's had sneaked into the language while I was away camping"

Nostradamus Award: It really does seem like the Liberal campaign has gone into a tailspin ever since the wheels came off Paul Martin's sleigh ride.

Nostradamus Award 2: Jason Cherniak serves up the boldest campaign prediction to date:

"Far from being the death-knell of the Liberal campaign, I think this investigation could be the final leg of a majority."

Liberal Weeks in Review: F

It's hard to imagine a worse possible week for the natural governing party. Several blog gaffes and the Income Trust leak-riddle-thingie could mark the turning point of this campaign. Martin also looked bad before Christmas when Duceppe turned the tables on him with his offer to meet him on every corner in Quebec.

Conservative Weeks in Review: B+

Harper gets marks for campaigning through the holidays while the other leaders enjoy the eggnog. The policy keeps coming, including a tax break for transit users which I think a lot of people will like. The latest ad is likely smart but, truth be told, most of the Tory gains this week comes from Liberal losses.

NDP Weeks in Review: B+

Layton and Olivia may have been mercilessly smeared by Liberals this week, but that certainly bodes well for them as they try to convince fickle NDP voters to not vote Liberal on E-day. The new ad doesn't do it for me but the NDP seems to be on the right track.

Bloc Quebecois Weeks in Review: B

Duceppe has been MIA over the holidays, but that's likely a good strategy for him. He seemed to turn the tables on Paul post-debate with the debate offer and most concede he'll likely be cruising to the finish line in Quebec.


  • There's a new poll out from Decima, a firm that has traditionally showed the Liberal support higher than others do. It was taken December 29 and 30, after the RCMP investigation hit the news.

    Found at, the poll shows the Liberals with a two point lead over the Conservatives among likely voters nationally, and a four point lead in Ontario.

    Liberals 32
    Conservatives 30
    NDP 18
    Bloc 14 (translates to 57% in Quebec)

    By Blogger Patrick, at 9:17 p.m.  

  • You have provided a good objective assessment of the campaign so far. I generally agree with your ratings.

    The stories today on the SES poll indicate that Martin's approval rating dropped 18 points in 24 hours. This means he's in serious trouble in terms of turning the campaign around. Now all the corruption baggage is going to come back to haunt him. The bottom line is that the Liberals have not yet been punished by the voters for their earlier misdeeds. That reckoning will probably occur on January 23.

    A Conservative minority will put pressure on Martin to leave. His departure is necessary in order for the Liberal party to heal and rebuild itself. Meanwhile the minority status will prevent the Conservatives from implementing radical changes to social programs. This should be the preferred outcome of all who are Liberal at heart but fed up with the shenanigans of the current regime.

    By Blogger cardinal47, at 10:23 p.m.  

  • Very enjoyable post. Where are you getting the latest IPSOS poll from, though?

    By Blogger Jonathan, at 3:50 p.m.  

  • cardinal; in fairness, those leadership scores bounce around a lot and 18 points isn't unheard of. He's still very close to Harper in the leadership index.

    jonathan; I got all the numbers from Polls Canada:

    The Ipsos numbers are from before Christmas.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:09 p.m.  

  • CG,that's a fair comment.
    But the new Ipsos Reid poll, reported tonight(Sunday)by Global National , confirms Conservatives are ahead nationally and in Ontario.

    According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow, 33 percent would cast their ballot in support of the Conservatives, up 1 point from last week.

    32 percent would vote for the Liberals, down 1 point

    18 per cent would vote for the NDP, that's up 2 percent.

    The Green Party remains unchanged at 5 percent.

    Perhaps of greatest interest are the results for Ontario which show the Conservatives at 38%, the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 19%

    Currently four in ten Canadians agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government in the next election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check” - 44 percent of Ontarians agree with this statement.

    Just one-third of Canadians now agree with the statement “I'd be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals in the next election because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery Inquiry”

    That's down 7 percent from a week ago, when Paul Martin garnered more support.

    As Harper and the Conservatives continue to build positive momentum nationally (up 8 points), momentum for Paul Martin and the Liberals has dropped substantially (down 14 points) and is now strongly negative nationally (down 35 points).

    The latest Ipsos Reid poll, showing Conservatives ahead of the Liberals both nationally and in Ontario, is sad news for the Liberals. The Liberals have miscalculated on the income trust "scandal". They are going to be hit hard on the integrity issue in the next three weeks. The corruption baggage will cost them the election. Look for the Opposition leaders to be gunning for Martin in the next set of debates.

    Simply put, they should have pulled Goodale immediately when the RCMP criminal investigation became public. Quick action might have limited the damage. Now they're stuck with toughing it out and taking repeated hits on the integrity issue.

    By Blogger cardinal47, at 8:35 p.m.  

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