Thursday, March 15, 2012

NDP Leadership Power Rankings

Last month I looked at how NDP leadership candidates stacked up on various metrics, in a mostly futile attempt to handicap the race. With the Dippers' vote a week away, here are the updated Power Rankings (click to view):

MPs: Despite losing an MP to Brian Topp this week, Mulcair continues to dominate with 43 MP endorsements - 10 more than the rest of the field combined.

Endorsements: These are the 308 endorsement numbers, which tell a different tale than the MP endorsements, due to Topp's establishment support. Mulcair still leads at 27.9%, but Topp (26.9%) and Nash (23.9%) are on his tail, with Dewar (13.2%) and Cullen (5.2%) lagging behind.

Donations, Donors, Direct Donors: These numbers come via Pundits Guide and show Mulcair leading with 242k in donations, followed by Topp at 215k, then Dewar, Nash, and Cullen bunched together about 50k behind. The "direct donors" numbers is likely more relevant than the "donors" indicator, since the later includes "pass the hat" fundraisers and, let's be frank, any indicator that shows Martin Singh with six times Mulcair's support is bogus.

Poll: Numbers from the Dewar and Mulcair internal polls released last month. Given the source and the time lag, these numbers should be looked at with caution. Still, in past leadership races, polls of members have tended to be the best predictor of the outcome.

Media Mentions: The number of articles mentioning each candidate. Despite his fall to the second tier, Brian Topp is still being talked about by the media nearly as much as Mulcair.

Social Media: Cullen and Nash have the strongest Facebook presences, while Paul Dewar leads on Twitter followers. The "Twitter Mentions" column comes from a MediaMiser study released today, showing that Cullen and Mulcair have been the most talked about candidates on Twitter. Who knows what that means, but it's interesting to see Cullen generating more buzz on Twitter than with the mainstream media.

Average Share: This is, simply enough, the average share of the candidates across these 10 indicators:

Mulcair 23%, Topp 16%, Nash 16%, Cullen 15%, Dewar 15%, Singh 8%, Ashton 5%

It is by no means a prediction of their first ballot support. Still, it matches the narrative we're hearing, of Mulcair well in front of a tightly bunched pack of four candidates.

Momentum: Shows how each candidate's share has shifted since last month, confirming Cullen's surge:

Cullen +1.9%, Dewar +0.3%, Mulcair -0.1%, Nash -0.4%, Ashton -0.4%, Singh -0.5%, Topp -0.7%

Paul Dewar has quietly generated some positive momentum as well, with Brian Topp losing ground. Despite, or perhaps because of, his new frontrunner status, Mulcair has held steady across these indicators.



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