Sunday, June 28, 2009

Hudak versus McGuinty in 2011

That'll be the match up, after Tim Hudak's third ballot win yesterday.

Here are the ballot-by-ballot results:

First Ballot
Hudak 3512
Klees 3094
Elliott 2729
Hillier 1014

After the first ballot, 61% of the Hillier votes switched over to Hudak, with 20% going to Klees, and 17% to Elliott (2% had no second choice).

Second Ballot
Hudak 4129
Klees 3300
Elliott 2904

51% of Elliott voters had Hudak as their second choice (or, third choice, if they were Hillier voters switching over to Elliott), while 46% had Klees.

Third Ballot
Hudak 5606
Klees 4644

So Hudak pulled off the rare feat of being a front runner who was also the top second choice preference among the supporters of the defeated candidates. While Hudak and his campaign certainly deserve some credit for pulling that off, I'm sure the short time frame and the format of the leadership race had a lot to do with it.

Front runner resentment probably runs higher among the type of people who go to delegated conventions than it does in the grass roots. That's something federal Liberals will need to keep in mind for future leadership races, now that they've switched to a WOMOV system.



  • I don't know Grit. I'd say team Hudak just barely won that one. I mean, ok, 1000 votes is a 1000 votes, but to only get 2nd choice of 51% when the other guy has 46% isn't a comforting thought either. A few more months for this race to mull over and you may have had this one going to Klees.

    BTW, any theories on how Klees had a stronger result than Elliot when Elliot seemingly had the best run campaign?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:24 PM  

  • Klees sold a lot of forms - probably having an old organization from his last leadership bid helped him in the short campaign.

    Or maybe it's a bit of the Flora effect...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:37 AM  

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