Saturday, December 06, 2008

CG Quotes David Frum

Don't worry - it won't happen again.

Truth be told, this is actually a fairly good article, I link to only because I did a frantic google search for the same sort of historical data a few weeks ago and came up empty, instead posting a much more modest analysis of the difficulties in governing during a recession.

Recessions are dangerous times for incumbent governments. If you happen to be near a computer, take a look at this Statscan chart: http://tiny.cc/JMcLe. It shows Canadian unemployment rates since 1921. Now look at the post-1945 numbers.

You'll see spikes in unemployment in the following years: 1958, 1962, 1972, 1982-84, 1992-1993.

There also happened to be federal elections in 1958, 1962, 1972, 1984 and 1993. In every one of those elections, the incumbent party suffered major losses. Two of the losses (1962 and 1972) reduced a former majority government to minority status. Three of the losses (1958, 1984, and 1993) were the most crushing landslides in the post-1945 period.

6 Comments:

  • Except I cannot quite see that Dion was looking for unelected power (anymore than Harper at least) or that he has been utterly discredited. Or even that the support for the Conservatives is that brilliantly strong. Most of them are 40% to 30%, which is hardly brilliant.

    SO I don't know that it is a very good article.It is typical national post and of David Frum.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:01 AM  

  • I now know why Harper was so quick to call an election in September (after calling bye-elections during the summer).

    By Blogger MississaugaPeter, at 11:18 AM  

  • A pattern does not make a bellweather

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:21 AM  

  • It is a fairly good article - I disagree with him that Dion was looking for unelected power, etc, I realize that's the way the system works. But it's interesting reading otherwise, with some good advice for ANY government.

    By Blogger Bo Green, at 11:48 AM  

  • In 1958, the incumbents actually made huge gains. Diefenbaker and the Tories won a minority in 1957 which became the biggest majority in Canadian history to that point in 1958.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:23 PM  

  • A pattern does not make a bellweather

    By Anonymous Famous Quotes, at 6:57 AM  

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