Sunday, February 24, 2008

Tories keep Tory...

...with a very Clarkish 66.9%.

Given there was open organizing on both sides, I think 2/3 seems like a big enough show of support to keep him on. I guess the real question now is if everyone gets on board for the next four years or not.

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7 Comments:

  • Here's an interesting trend:

    Bob Rae became leader of his party in 1982. He lost his first election in 1985, but became Premier in his second election in 1990.

    Mike Harris became leader of his party in 1990. He lost his first election in 1990, but became Premier in his second election in 1995.

    Ernie Eves became party leader and therefore Premier in 2002. He lost his first (and only) election in 2003.

    Dalton McGuinty became leader of his party in 1996. He lost his first election in 1999, but became Premier in his second election in 2003.

    Not in twenty-two years has Ontario elected a Premier who had not already run and lost as a party leader. Ontario Tories, take note.

    By Anonymous Josh P, at 1:27 PM  

  • However, McGuinty got 81% approval in his leadership review, while Harris got over 90%. It isn't just a matter of whether they lost, but how they lost.

    John Tory, much more than McGuinty, and waaay more than Harris was supposed to reduce McGuinty to a minority in a worst case scenario. As much as I like a fellow moderate Tory, the course of the campaign did not reflect well on Tory. By contrast, Mike Harris did surprisingly well in 1990, beating out expectations by holding onto the Tory regional core. McGuinty in 1999, actually won one of the strongest vote totals for Ontario Liberals ever - increasing their share of the vote by about 9% (apart from Peterson, you have to go back to Mitch Hepburn in 1937 for better results than McGuinty's losing 1999 finish).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:36 PM  

  • josh p,

    Rae became leader in 1982. Lost in 1985 AND IN 1987. He became Premier in his THIRD election in 1990. Rae ran 3X as leader of the Ontario NDP.

    By Anonymous mississaugaJoan, at 2:13 PM  

  • josh p,

    Also note that Mike Harris was elected leader of the PC on May 12, 1990, and the election was called less than 3 months later (actual vote was September 6, 1990).

    Also note that all of the aforementioned were elected MPP when they lost their respective elections. Tory was not elected as an MPP in 2007.

    By Anonymous mississaugajoan, at 3:06 PM  

  • "As much as I like a fellow moderate Tory, the course of the campaign did not reflect well on Tory."

    Which is the real worry Ontario PCs should have about Tory isn't it? He's a nice guy and the party probably had the right idea in picking a moderate to lead it last election. But you have to wonder if he's the man to lead the party if he can get so thoroughly trounced on the campaign trail over his own policy proposal and got caught off-guard by rather obvious questions over the policy (such as the teaching of evolution).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:42 PM  

  • Hopefully this establishes a trend and Ed sticks around too...

    By Blogger Glen, at 4:48 PM  

  • Josh P, to continue your trend, we would predict that if Ernie Eves had only stayed on as Tory leader following his defeat in 2003, he would be Premier again now. I find this rather difficult to believe.

    By Blogger saphorr, at 11:36 AM  

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