Friday, January 04, 2008

As the Orchard Army Prepares to Go Insane...

Full marks to Stephane Dion on this, for reasons I don't need to go into again. Hopefully Orchard will accept this and find a winnable riding to run in during the general election:

Liberal Party of Canada Announces Joan Beatty as Candidate

OTTAWA - Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion today announced that Joan Beatty, former Saskatchewan NDP cabinet minister and Aboriginal activist, will be the Party's candidate in the riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in the upcoming federal by-election.“Joan Beatty brings to the Liberal Party of Canada a strong mix of local knowledge, Aboriginal expertise, political experience and a tradition of service to the people of Saskatchewan,” said Mr. Dion.

“I am confident that her passion for her home-riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, coupled with her passion for her province and country, will make her a strong Member of Parliament and I am so pleased to welcome her to our Caucus.”

Ms. Beatty said her continued desire to make a positive change for the north, together with the best possible way to serve the people of northern Saskatchewan, has resulted in her accepting Mr. Dion’s invitation to join the Liberal Party of Canada.

“Under Mr. Dion’s leadership,I believe that I can best represent the constituency at this level, in particular, the First Nations communities where the need is so great. For me, at the end of the day, it’s about being practical. I am proud to announce my candidacy in the federal riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and continuing to fight for a richer, fairer and greener Canada,” said Ms. Beatty, who is currently a Member of the
Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.

“This is a diverse riding with significant First Nations, Métis, and farming communities. Having been born and raised in the riding, along with my professional and personal experience, I have had the opportunity to see first hand the issues faced by northerners, and I look forward to taking those concerns to Ottawa and pushing for solutions.”

In 2003, Ms. Beatty became the first Aboriginal woman and First Nations person to be elected to the Saskatchewan Legislature. Shortly thereafter, she became the first Aboriginal woman and First Nations person to be appointed to cabinet as Minister of Culture Youth and Recreation and Provincial Secretary.

In 2006, she became Minister of Northern Affairs and the Minister Responsible for the Status of Women. Until recently she served as the critic responsible for Women’s Issues and Northern Affairs.

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  • Chalk this up as a Conservative gain.

    Hot damn.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:08 a.m.  

  • Care to actually offer some analysis on why you think that? (says the person who is so confident in his/her prediction they remain anonymous when they make it).

    By Blogger Oxford County Liberals, at 10:20 a.m.  

  • The CPC will win this riding. Alot of Liberals will sit it out.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:32 a.m.  

  • I didn't write the Anon comment above, but at the very least, Scott, it's much more in play for the Tories than the other 3 seats at stake in the by-election (though Vancouver Quadra could be a surprise).

    First, the Libs barely won the last time - by only 67 votes.

    Second, that win had some ... interesting ... elements to it, although to be fair, Elections Canada found that there wasn't enough there to void the results ("regrettable" placement of campaign literature and >100% turnout didn't cut it, in this case, and that was the end of the matter).

    Third, as Tories found out, David Orchard can be quite vociferous when he feels hard done by. Leaving Orchard himself aside, I seem to recall that one or more Aboriginal/Metis groups were supportive of his candidacy. What effect this appointment will have on them is hard to say.

    I don't know much about Rob Clarke (the Tory candidate) so I can't say what effect he'll have. As well, I don't know how the party-switch by the Lib candidate will play out (if it makes a difference at all).

    But Clarke would seem to have a very strong shot at taking this seat, nonetheless.

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:57 a.m.  

  • A winnable riding for Orchard? I didn't know Pluto was part of Canada these days....

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:09 p.m.  

  • Steffi needs much, much better political advice.

    Much better than this bone-headed decision.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:35 p.m.  

  • good choice. Aboriginal rights activist, strong ties to the area.

    By Blogger 900ft Jesus, at 1:00 p.m.  

  • Could somebody explain how this riding would not have been winnable with Orchard as the candidate?

    That saying Joan is a very strong candidate, strong enough to win a nomination. Sadly, it seems on occasion the Federal Liberal party talks about democracy but will ignore it from time to time.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:07 p.m.  

  • I agree with your basic sentiments on this CG - in fact I see this as a positve for Dion in that these two (or more) potential candidates both represented a wealth of riches for the LPC in Sask in both being competent, credible and attractive to the local community in the riding. It's just that one of them, Joan Beatty, had more going for her in each important department - the facts that she is a woman and a member of the aboriginal community in which she will be running cannot be ignored given M. Dion's strong platform and pledges to increase the representation of women and to run them in winable ridings, his advocacy for aboriginal issues and support for the Kelowna accord and support for home grown, not parachuted candidates.

    Dion has made a good decision. Mr. Orchard should be encouraged in another Saskatchewan seat which he should be able to take from marginal to winnable for the LPC.

    These difficulties arose, I believe, because the Leader and his election-readiness team, were unfortunately as unprepared for these by-elections as they were for the previous four. They have had more than plenty of notice. Allowing Mr. Orchard to forge full speed ahead on a nomination when the strategic decisions related to the by-election, its candidacy, platform, etc, had not yet been made were not fair to him and did him a diservice. To be fair to all, these strategies should have been in place the second (or even before) the various vacancies loomed on the horizon.

    So to repeat, while I beleive that M. Dion has made a good decision for the Party and the riding, I hope that we do not continue to see this type of indecision in matters electoral. It is really time to get our organizational house in order. This imbroglio should frankly, not have occured.

    By Blogger The Pontificator, at 1:26 p.m.  

  • It is clear that Dion does not make promises to anyone.
    Look even Cherniak is still unemployed!
    Beatty is an aboriginal woman with cabinet experience and from the riding. She'll make a great MP.
    Orchard has alot of options he could run in Prince Albert or Northwest Saskatoon where he has past experience.
    Thankfully our leader takes little advise from bloggers in Ontario to know what's best.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:28 p.m.  

  • This is just one more example of moving the Liberal party to the Left under the socialist university professor. Dosanjh, Rae and now Beatty; how many more NDPers are we going to see representing the so called "middle of the road" party. Sad trend for Canada!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:36 p.m.  

  • I never have understood the concept of over riding the legitimate nomination process in order to appoint candidates. It seems undemocratic to me.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:43 p.m.  

  • Pontifcator,

    Tell me. What other Saskatchewan riding can go from marginal to winnable? Don't say Prince Albert or Northwest Saskatoon because the Grits haven't been competitive there since Louis St. Laurent!!!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:43 p.m.  

  • Only riding the Liberals can come second in other than the two they won last time is Saskatoon Wanuskewin but even than they will will only be able to come second with the rural/urban split of the riding. Though its telling the kind of job Goodale has done as the Senior Liberal from Saskatchewan when Liberals in 1993 have 5 Liberal MPs including a pure rural riding and now they have one or two. Goodale is a huge roadblock to any success in Saskatchewan for the Federal Liberals.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:54 p.m.  

  • Its hard to feel that sorry for Orchard, he should know what the Liberals are all about. Democracy, the environment, trust, nationalism: are platitudes and slogans to the Big Red Machine, not principles. Anyone who hasn't figured that out by now gets what they deserve.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:57 p.m.  

  • Anon 11:54,

    The story to consider in Sask is this. What has Layton done for Saskatchewan? They had 5 in the dark days of Audrey McLaughlin but shutout in both 2004 and 2006. Could it be the province is becoming Alberta East?

    I am thinking of having Orchard at Saskatoon-Humboldt. Grits won in 1993, Dippers weak there since Nettie has bone to Biggar.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:13 p.m.  

  • The more Dippers the Liberals embrace the better it is for the Cons.
    Somebodys elevator isn't going to the top floor.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:18 p.m.  

  • Mushroom,

    Am I correct in thinking that you are coming around to my point-of-view. Different elections, leaders, candidates, and Party fortunes can comine to bring about different results.

    I say something similar to anonymous at 12:18: who's elevator seems stalled somewhere. Frankly, the FEWER Dippers who embrace the Liberals the better it is for the Cons. Where were you in 2004 and 2006? Dippers split the left vote and elect Tories. Dippers coming to Liberals defeat Tories.

    By Blogger The Pontificator, at 3:04 p.m.  

  • that also went the other way around pontificator, in many ridings the Liberals split the vote and Tories won...but we could bicker on that all day....

    Orchard won't win in Wanuskewin, although it was the 3rd best riding for the Liberals in 2004 and 2006 the best they did with a "star" candidate was 33%, and even that dropped to 24% in 2006. Orchard originally wanted to run in Wanuskewin, unfortunately, a strong NDP base and his inability to smooth things out to his benefit saw him pack up last year and move onto DMCR.

    By Blogger Sean S., at 3:20 p.m.  

  • Pontificator,

    Who are you?

    Seriously, if you are so enthusiastic about Dion's chances in Sask against Layton, why don't you start an Orchard for Humboldt facebook campaign. It is the least we can do at the grassroots to prove that our leader is not Peter MacKay.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:22 p.m.  

  • "good choice. Aboriginal rights activist, strong ties to the area."

    So good she couldn't win the nomination? That Metis leader was right, too many "Southerners" think they know better than the actual residents of the riding.

    By Blogger The Rat, at 4:26 p.m.  

  • So it is just fine for someone to jump parties and be annointed to run in a constituency by Saint Dion? This is democracy as farce.
    This is an insult to the Liberal members of the constituency and a slap in the face to the NDP.

    By Blogger ken, at 4:53 p.m.  

  • If Orchard and cult are such a strong force why can't he win Wanuskewin or Humboldt?
    Dion, as our leader, has every right to appoint whomever he choses whenever he wants to whatever riding. If you don't like it, push for an amendment.
    Beatty's a dream candidate for this riding and I'm sure David will be more than welcome in the wetlands of British California.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:25 p.m.  

  • I pity Stephan Dion,

    He evidently knows little technically about the science of anything including "Climate Change"; he knows nothing about economics (still learning how to balance a cheque book); he also evidently is without any political smarts, as in his selection of candidates; has yet also too learn the definition of democracy; other than that, as a sociologist he would probably make a good social worker.
    He is politically, "the gift that keeps on giving".
    Go Stephie go!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:26 p.m.  

  • I'd prefer lose this seat than have David Orchard in caucus. We don't need a yearly "pull out of NAFTA" private members bill put forward.

    The candidate that has been selected is a good one. Let's calm down and see how this plays out.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:33 p.m.  

  • Good, bad, or indifferent, what will make this by-election (or election if the gov't falls in Feb) exciting is the uncertainty of the local, political and personal dynamics. There is one Liberal local, deprived of a shot at the nomination who may or may not rally some Liberals to help or stay at home. There is one former Conservative import who has an exceptionally loyal personal following and excellent organizational skills that may aid or hinder the election chances of the Liberals in the riding. There is a former NDP import who may or may not be able to hold on to her former NDP supporters and may or may not be able to get the current Liberals off their hands and out to the polls. In Outremont, many Conservatives held their noses and voted NDP to ensure the Liberal went down in flames, will and NDPers be willing to return the favour to punish the NDP turn-coat? (This is getting to sound a lot like one of those old-time soap operas) This one will cause many a sleepless night for campaign stratigists and when all is said and done, a great deal of fun for us distant political voyeurs. Personally, I think Dion made an error in going over the heads of the local executive and getting on the wrong side of Orchard. Someone with the least bit of leadership skills should have been able to convince the locals his choice of candidate was in the best interests of all and get their backing; instead he dumps on them and causes needless divisions. Like I said, this will be fun to watch.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:51 p.m.  

  • Oh yeah, it was that huge Conservative vote which pushed Muclair over the top in Outremont! Do you write science fiction by any chance?

    I'm also real sure Dippers will be eager to vote for the opposite of what they want in order to punish someone for switching teams. That would be the height of political maturity.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:11 p.m.  

  • Ron you obviously have never been to Outremont.
    The NDP won as they had a popular (Liberal) candidate running for them and thousands of traditionally Liberal voting Jews chose not to vote during their high holiday. Whether Mulcair holds this seat in the next election will be very interesting.
    Don't worry about David Orchard. He is committed to PM Dion and will do everything possible to make that happen above his own personal interests.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:18 p.m.  

  • FT: I think appointing candidates is useful to ensure quality people get into the House of Commons. The key is to just not abuse it and to only use it to appoint qualified candidates and/or under-represented groups.

    mushroom: Orchard could also pick a rural seat in Ontario to run in - he's got a base outside of Sask too.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:28 p.m.  

  • CG,

    Where in Ontario? There are many homeless ex-Progressive Conservatives scattered, you want him anywhere?

    People saying I would rather lose a seat than have Orchard in caucus. Where is unity in this party? How broad can the Liberal party be?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:03 p.m.  

  • Aboriginal women are the most under privileged of Canadian society. They face institutional discrimination even within their own bands.
    Great for Dion that he can attract such a candidate for us in the North. This Orchard fellow sounds like a nice guy but should does not represent us.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:07 p.m.  

  • Anon 7:07,

    Are you stretching it? The Grits have been positive towards aboriginal women. Tina Keeper, Nancy Karetak-Lindell, Ethel Blondin-Andrew etc. Joan Beatty continues this trend.

    Beatty is merely following the tradition of Elijah Harper and Rick Laliberte.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:11 p.m.  

  • I say something similar to anonymous at 12:18: who's elevator seems stalled somewhere. Frankly, the FEWER Dippers who embrace the Liberals the better it is for the Cons. Where were you in 2004 and 2006? Dippers split the left vote and elect Tories. Dippers coming to Liberals defeat Tories.

    It's nice that someone still remembers Paul Martin's talking points, but that's completely wrong. The main effect of NDPers voting Liberal to STOP HARPER!!!11 was that the Conservatives ended up winning seats that the NDP would otherwise have got, especially in Saskatchewan. (CalgaryGrit even did a post on this way back.)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:46 p.m.  

  • Invisible hand,

    Why did it happen in 2004 and 2006? The NDP was viable in Sask in 1993 when it went down to 9 seats under Audrey McLaughlin. Alexa did well there in 1997.

    The problem in Sask is that Layton had no strategy in this province as leader. Not good for the home of Prairie socialism. Everything is dependent on Nettie Wiebe, who is not that welcome among the Saskatoon and Regina provincial NDPers.

    So The Pontificator is wrong and the focus should be on leadership. Why was the NDP shutout under Harper and viable under Manning and Stock Day?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:03 p.m.  

  • I think part of the NDP's problem in Sask has been the fatigue with Calvert. This happened in BC and Ontario as well. If Sask likes having Dion and Liberal party strategists tell them who they have to vote for, then they have that option, if they want a democratic alternative to the Cons, they can vote for the NDP.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:36 p.m.  

  • Well, Mushroom, again you make my point. NDP shut out under Harper because the left was split and right "united" in the days of Manning and Day you forget about the split with Clark and, er, um who else? Why Peter McKay! Mr. Orchard's former friend.

    I do agree with you completely that the focus ultimately should be on leadership. I think that was kinda my original point.

    By Blogger The Pontificator, at 1:51 p.m.  

  • Pontificator,

    Note that in the 2004 election, Layton got 19 seats. This was worst than McDonough in 1997 who won 21, with a much lower popular vote. NDP did extremely well in Ontario and the BC, to the detriment of Sask.

    Thus, anon at 11:36 hit it spot on. Calvert had become a millstone around Layton. Dion, by appointing Beatty, is a major benefit to a fire sale.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:04 p.m.  

  • Pontificator, the split in the right had little impact in Saskatchewan.

    In Saskatchewan the PC Party got 11% in 1993, 8% in 1997 and 5% under Clark - they were a non-entity.

    Moreover, since the merger, the Conservative party won 42% and 49% of the vote, compared to 48% under Day.

    The merger has not substantially expanded the number of votes the Conservatives have gotten in Saskatchewan. In 2000 the NDP-Liberal numbers were 26% and 21%, in 2004 it was 23 and 27. That small shift in the electorate served to cost the NDP its marginal seats, without yielding gains for the Liberals, whose vote is spread across the province.

    Moreover, I am not sure that blaming the leadership of the NDP is prudent. Jack Layton faces a problem - the old labour/farmer base of the party is dying off, and so the urban granola left is a more fruitful electoral strategy (although that turf is more contested).

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 3:04 p.m.  

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