Thursday, December 14, 2006

Rona to be Gona?

There's a lot of speculation making the rounds about Harper's first Cabinet shuffle, expected in early January. I wouldn't expect a massive shuffle, but most agree Rona Ambrose's days in environment are numbered. Since it's become the highest profile Cabinet position of late and it's in the mutual interests of the NDP and Tories to cut a deal on the environment, Harper's decision will be a crucial one. Among some of the people I could see winding up there:

1. Lawrence Cannon - Having a Quebecer in the file might be a wise move for political reasons and Cannon seems to be one of Harper's most trusted Ministers.

2. Peter MacKay - Would allow Harper to change things up at Foreign Affairs as well, where MacKay's performance has been rather mixed.

3. Monte Solberg - Handles the media better than anyone and with an election around the corner, half the job for the Minister of the Environment is really just PR.

4. Dianne Ablonczkskszxtckzktxckzzy - Was one of the more high profile omissions in Harper's first Cabinet.


  • I hear Bernier for Environment. Fits in terms of your thoughts of a Quebecker.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 2:25 PM  

  • With all due respect, it would be tough to see Peter MacKay in the role.

    Firstly, Harper doesn't want MacKay to get more publicity.

    Secondly, odds are he would "screw up" the file.

    They need someone with more credibility.

    And someone who isn't likely to get snookered again by Belinda.

    That Michael Chong guy seems to have principles.

    What about him?

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 2:31 PM  

  • Jim Prentice would be my first choice, because I think he would be the most effective. But he can't be everywhere.

    How about JP Blackburn for a Quebecer?

    From your list... having Monte Solberg back in front of the cameras would help on he PR front, which unfortunately is where most of the debate will be as you say.

    By Blogger Technetium, at 2:37 PM  

  • Bring Back Bowie:

    By Blogger whichwaysthegym, at 2:51 PM  

  • I say verner.

    By Blogger Hammering Jow, at 3:11 PM  

  • Solberg's a ludicrous choice! But I think you've just convinced me on it... Not bad thinking.

    Bernier's also a good idea.

    I'm not that down on Ambrose - she's screwed up, but hey, so have I. She's Minister for the Environment, not Minister for Global Warming, and overall, I think she's been alright. I guess it's probably wisest to get a new face in, however.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 3:11 PM  

  • Rona Lumbers.
    Bernier coiffed as replacement.

    By Blogger The Anonymous Green, at 3:14 PM  

  • Bernier could work too and it would open up Industry if Harper is itching to promote anyone.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:42 PM  

  • Environment file for GHG emissions (if that is a government priority) will require someone with Industry credibility/knowledge to negotiate with the "Captains of Industry". Bernier fits.

    Ambrose lacked credibility. Witness her pre Clean Air Act meeting with O&G execs in Alberta. Prentice and Lunn were in meeting to help moderate/balance industry demands or dialogue. Meanwhile,post meeting, Ambrose slips away out the back door to avoid media.

    "You are the weakest link. Goodbye"

    By Blogger The Anonymous Green, at 3:51 PM  

  • In terms of that promotion CG, I hear that none other than your very own Jim Prentice will be promoted to Industry.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 4:06 PM  

  • Giving the file to a Quebecker makes a certain amount of political sense, but, depending on whether or not the new strategy works, it could also make the guy a bigger target in the next election (Bernier has one of the more comfortable margins of victory among Quebec Tories).

    Are we expecting Ambrose to get bounced completely, or just shuffled off somewhere else? If the former, she'd either have to be replaced by an Albertan, or an Albertan would slot in to some other position being left by the new Environment Minister.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 4:08 PM  

  • I'd say move Dianne Ablonczy into Indian and Northern Affairs if Prentice moves. Longterm party stalwart. She seemed pretty steady in opposition. Many felt she was unjustly overlooked in first cabinet.

    So, she comes from Calgary, whereas Ambrose was from Edmonton area. Calgary lost Premier Ralph to Northern Alberta's Stelmach, so shouldn't be too much complaining.

    Rona is sent to the penalty box for a cooling off period until post next election. Dianne maintains gender ratio, and provincial numbers.

    By Blogger The Anonymous Green, at 4:22 PM  

  • CG,

    I generally agree with your analysis, and Diane A. should have been in cabinet a long time ago. But that title is horrible, and ruined the whole post for me. I mean, Rona and Gona don't even rhyme. What were you thinking?

    By Blogger Olaf, at 6:36 PM  

  • Tony Clement has to go.

    He was born in Britain and could be a dual citizen, if he isn't already.

    Having him in health is dangerous.

    He could cripple our system and then get medical services for himself in Britain.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 7:11 PM  

  • How about reaching across the aisle and appointing a BC or Ontario New Democrat as a special advisor on the environment [climate change & Kyoto]. Much like he did with Wajid Khan.

    By Blogger scott, at 7:41 PM  

  • Perhaps Iggy to replace Peter MacKay after Iggy splits with Dion over Afghanistan.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 7:50 PM  

  • The Best Cabinet Shuffle:

    Enviro: Solberg (great PR guy)

    Citizenship: Diane A.

    Natural Resources (also part of the enviro thing): Cannon

    Prime Minister: Stephane Dion (he'll shake things up and actually get things done)

    By Blogger Hangin to the left, at 8:53 PM  

  • Olaf - it does rhyme if you pronounce her name right... Ron-ah

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:12 PM  

  • Hm, Ignatieff would be a pretty killer move if he could arrange it...

    It's all I can do to keep up with "the Prime Minister" and "the Government" and each individual party. I'm amazed how much you all know about particular MPs. Who is that woman seated behind Harper who wears dark glasses? I thought that was Diane Ablonczy, but a visit to DA's site just now proves that idea wrong....

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 11:23 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger The Anonymous Green, at 11:40 PM  

  • I'm amazed how much you all know about particular MPs.

    Were you watching the National's At Issue panel tonight? Because Mansbridge spontaneously asked them (Hebert, Coyne, Murphy, some other guy) to identify a woman in a photograph, and none of them could, at which point he told them it was Carol Skelton, the Minister of National Revenue.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 11:43 PM  

  • Are you guys on drugs suggesting he might give that to Bernier ?

    Bernier is anti-environmentalist like nobody else. He blames everything on environmentalists.

    Cannon should be their guy. He's liked in Quebec and perceived as a moderate guy.


    By Blogger Alex Plante, at 11:50 PM  

  • That would be Diane Finley. And as for the next Minister of the Environment -- Jim Prentice. Cannon could get something larger than what he has now -- perhaps Public Safety? I'm fairly certain Mackay will stay put. I may not agree with all his policies, but he is a Conservative. As for Solberg, I can see him in Industry. And I'm sure Ablonszy(?) could pretty much be stuck anywhere. Canadian Heritage maybe?

    By Blogger Jordan, at 12:15 AM  

  • Oh that's Diane Finley - many thanks.

    Didn't know that about Bernier - probably not the smartest choice for Environment, in that case (meaning he'll likely get it).

    I've never heard of Carol Skelton - man, I admire the knowledge you guys have.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 3:51 PM  

  • You could simply shuffle the deck move Monty Solberg to Environment as no one does Media and Public relations like Monty. That frees up citizenship and immigration, you lose a minister from Edmonton so you could move Jaffer from caucus chair to immigration, put forward a more diverse face and move Rona into the position of caucus chair.

    By Blogger Chris, at 9:03 PM  

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    By Anonymous, at 12:13 PM  

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