Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Go West Young Man

The main leadership news from over the weekend is that Gerard Kennedy is musing about running in Western Canada next election. I for one think this is a gutsy move on Kennedy's part and good news for the Liberal Party. Yes, he has what should be an easily winnable seat in Parkdale ready for him, but the Liberal Party needs to reach out to Western Canada and this would be a small step in the right direction. The mind frame among many Liberals that this party should write off the 125 ridings outside of Ontario and Quebec is self-destructive and I think there are as many seats to be picked up in the West as in Quebec.

Now, speculation will obviously turn to what riding Gerard should run in. BC makes the most electoral sense but I think Manitoba or Alberta would be better choices due to Gerard's roots in those provinces. Running in Vancouver (say, in Emerson's riding) might lead to more "parachute candidate" complaints and comparisons to John Turner.

Here's a look at some possible ridings:

Winnipeg South: While there are, quite literally, big shoes to fill in this riding, Rod Bruinooge's 110 vote win certainly makes this riding a good bet to return to the Liberals in the future.

Winnipeg South Centre: Anita Neville is 63 so I wouldn't consider her a sure bet to run again.

Charleswood-St.James-yada yada: Glen Murray had a tough time here in 2004 so another parachute star candidate might not be the wisest move.

Edmonton Centre: This one would obviously be contingent on Anne McLellan not running. The riding has shown a willingness to elect a Liberal heavy hitter time and time again. On the downside, Anne was beloved in the riding and still lost last election.

Edmonton Strathcona: The Liberals only got 18% in Strathcona last election, but Jaffer never wins it with more than 41 or 42% of the vote. This University riding has always had the potential to go Liberal or NDP if either party ran a strong candidate and Kennedy is certainly an individual who could appeal to NDP voters. But like Edmonton Centre, this one would be very difficult to win unless Kennedy was the party leader.

Crowfoot: This riding is ripe for the taking! A mere 800% increase in the Liberal vote and we'd be competitive here!

posted by calgarygrit at 8:25 p.m.

44 Comments:

  • I have to agree with your observation. To have any hope of winning the next election the Liberal Party will have to look outside of Ontaio and Quebec. I live in Quebec on the island of Montreal, and the Liberals as a party are dead here for a very very long time. The sponsorship scandal hit home here particularly hard....and the french with their sense of pride will not be forgiing to the Liberals for the next two (?) elections.

    By Blogger Bookyards Beta Search Engine, at 8:38 p.m.  

  • The Liberals are dead in Alberta too. It's a Liberal wasteland for at least a generation. Running anywhere in Alberta would be political suicide for Kennedy. It would be gutsy alright, but fundamentally stupid.

    By Blogger George, at 8:48 p.m.  

  • CG- I disagree with your assessment and do not think that the best way for the Liberals to gain credibility in the west is to "parachute" a candidate into a riding. Kennedy has not lived in the west for over a decade and I believe that people are smart enough to know a political ploy for an extra seat when they see one. It would be the same thing if Stephen Harper decided to run in St. Pauls in Toronto. He would lose respect - and so will Kennedy if he tries that trick.
    I think if the Liberals want to become a truly national party again they ought to develop policies that reach out beyond their urban base and stop being so condescending towards anyone who disagrees with them. Remember - Tories were telling Harper to write off Quebec and focus on Ontario, but he kept at it and won ten seats.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 8:55 p.m.  

  • Yes, I think it's good politics for GK to say he may run out west.

    No, I don't think he has absolutely any intent on actually doing it.

    By Blogger Leroy McSodapop, at 9:23 p.m.  

  • Ignatieff is the Liberal Michael Dukakis, and Rae would be their Kim Campbell. This talk of Kennedy running out west gives him a John Turner aura, something that should be avoided. Doesn't Kennedy live in Peggy Nash's riding? As the next election is going to be about re-gaining what the Liberals lost to the NDP, he should take on Nash. Running where the Liberals have third party status, like many Alberta ridings, is unwise.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 9:29 p.m.  

  • Is this assuming he'll be Liberal leader?

    By Blogger Yining Su, at 9:39 p.m.  

  • I think party Leaders (assuming Gerard becomes Lib Leader) do very well outside their geographical "base", just because of the "pork" factor. A party Leader can't get things done for their riding in a way a mere MP cannot. That sways alot of votes.

    Now, apparently, when you say the Libs are dead outside of Ontario and Quebec, you have forgotten the Maritimes? Or do they mean dick out West?

    By Blogger bigcitylib, at 9:53 p.m.  

  • bigcitylib; My whole point is that the Libs need to look outside of Ontario and Quebec. So, yes, the Maritimes should not be written off either (although there aren't a ton of seats there).

    yining; I think this is regardless of whether or not Kennedy wins. Unlike certain former NDP premiers, he's made it know he'll run for the Liberals federally, win or lose.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:05 p.m.  

  • CG, why didn't you consider a Saskatchewan seat?

    By Blogger John Murney , at 11:22 p.m.  

  • For the record guys,

    Kennedy has not ruled out a run in Quebec either...

    oh the possibilities

    By Blogger Anthony, at 11:49 p.m.  

  • "I think party Leaders (assuming Gerard becomes Lib Leader) do very well outside their geographical "base", just because of the "pork" factor."

    Potential Prime Ministers, yes. Prospective Leaders of Her Majest's Loyal Opposition... not so much.

    By Blogger deaner, at 11:52 p.m.  

  • john; Gerard has lived in Manitoba and Alberta for a long time, so those seemed like the logical choices.

    I also don't see a ton of winable ridings in Sask which aren't already held by Liberals.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:45 a.m.  

  • I really like the idea Bart. Here's what I wrote about it with my local perspective:

    The Grit also likes what he's hearing about his pony maybe running in the west should Kennedy win the leadership. CG thinks there's more to gain should he run in Alberta or Manitoba considering his roots, rather than BC which seesm to be having its fill of riding manipulations lately.

    I agree with Bart whole-heartedly on this one, and I'll go him one further. The gains and spin-off gains to be made running in Alberta are negligible, however there's not only a juicy fat Liberal riding waiting here in Manitoba, but running the leader in the province leads to many spin off benefits for the Liberals.

    The ready-made riding is Anita Neville's (and my home turf) Winnipeg South Centre. CG only refers to Anita's age as a deciding factor, but there's oh so many more, namely:

    1. Anita's got her pension and this last campaign took a year or two off her life. She isn't running again no matter what.

    2. The Liberal's lost their provincial general when Reg Alcock went down swinging. Whoever is going to inheirit the "grand Liberal poobah in Manitoba" title is probably going to run in that riding unless the leader does. Should Kennedy decide that he wants it, he will have a hammer lock on the Manitoba machinery.

    3. The last election showed that the riding is much safer than Tories - including this Tory - ever gave it credit for. It's not a riding that he has to campaign hard to win. (After all, look at Anita's last "sit in the office and make phone calls" campaign.)

    4. That being said, one of the biggest obsticles in this election was the "...But Harper" vote, who thought we had a fine candidate, but couldn't get past the leader. Recent polling would suggest that the "...But Harper" vote has diminished somewhat, no? So while any old Liberal would still have a good chance of holding the riding, inserting the leader into the riding would surely lock it in.

    5. Better results in other ridings in the province. I doubt any of the remaining three Liberals in the province rest too well on their support. Tina Keeper in the North won due to the NDP and Bev Desjarlais' scrape and vote-split, and Raymond Simard in St. Boniface has seen his margian of victories get narrower and narrower. They could certainly be helped with a little leadership booster.

    6. Manitobans would be tickled with the idea of a "Manitoba" leader potentially becoming a "Manitoba" Prime Minister. That would probably help out at least three other ridings in the city and maybe, just maybe, a rural seat if Gerard Kennedy really turns out to be the real deal.

    So shoring up some of his seats and taking it to a few others. Being seen as running in his birth province, rather than just a parachute candidate. Fighting a battle in the West.

    Yep, it's a bold and aggressive idea. I really like it from a strategy point of view.

    By Blogger The Hack, at 1:55 a.m.  

  • CalgaryGrit;
    I think Edmonton Centre isnt going to go Liberal no matter who they run. Laurie Hawn, who has probably been the biggest newcomer Conservative MP who didnt make cabinet is a very good at everything. He served 30 years in the RCAF, which is vey popular in that riding, and he doorknocks on 30,000 houses every election. I went up there (live just outside Calgary) to help with the doorknocking this election and I was extreamly impressed with everything with that campaign. THat day we literally had a hundred volunteers out doorknocking in -20 weather. That riding only went to landslide Annie by 700 votes in 2004. Ann was very popular with many Edmontonians, and I just dont feel they will feel the same way about some guy who just moved over from Ontario, or atleast like him more then Laurie Hawn.

    By Blogger Brad, at 1:58 a.m.  

  • I would add a few more suggestions

    Kildonan-St. Paul - Joy Smith only got 43% and 37% in 2004 so with the NDP getting over 20% both times, this is winneable.

    Edmonton East - This riding did go Liberal in 1993 and provincially generally prefers centre-left candidates. Peter Goldring did get 50% although I suspect a lot of this had more to do with the fact many Liberals just didn't bother to show up since they were so disgusted with the campaign.

    Calgary Centre - Not likely that he could win this riding, but if the Liberals ever breakthrough into Calgary, this would be the first riding to fall.

    Calgary West - Would be great to have someone like him knockoff a dingbat like Rob Anders, but I cannot see it happening even if he did run here. This is a riding where if the Conservative candidate was a monkey and the Liberal candidate was God, the monkey would win.

    By Blogger Monkey Loves to Fight, at 2:51 a.m.  

  • Bart, I cannot believe you like this idea. Less than a month ago Kennedy was talking about looking for new schools for his children in Quebec! His campaign desparately needs to stop being wishy washy and start focusing on more important issues than image. Kennedy should be a good candidate, but these sorts of antics are not helping in the least.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 12:19 p.m.  

  • Sean... except for the fact that there is an NDP government in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a Liberal government in BC which replaced an NDP government, other than all of the non-Alberta provinces in other words, you are right about liberals not getting the "West".

    Ted
    Cerberus

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 1:58 p.m.  

  • Ted.. not to sound silly.. but..

    The Liberals in BC are more like Conservatives (because there isn't a Conservative party in BC provincially).

    In Saskatchewan and Manitoba the Liberal Party barely registers on the electoral map, the government always shifts between the NDP and conservative ideological parties. Even the NDP in these provinces aren't the same breed as the federal NDP ideologically.

    The Liberals don't get rural Canadians (and often they antagonize them with bad policies), and hence they forfeit large tracts of the west (and Canada in general) to the opposition.

    By Blogger Eric, at 2:21 p.m.  

  • Jason; I don't see any inconsistency. Kennedy has admited his French needs work so he'll spend a month or two this summer in Quebec working on it. Since everyone concedes bilingualism is a must, I think this is a good move.

    And I think it makes sense for Gerard to consider a Western riding. He spent 25 years out West and contributed a lot to Edmonton with his food bank work.

    As for everyone else saying the Liberals don't get the West and this won't do anything, I called it a "small step in the right direction". Kind of like the Tories holding their policy convention in Quebec last year - yes, it's mostly symbolic, but it sends the right message.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:51 p.m.  

  • I am sorry but you Kennedy guys are just goofy.
    The reporter from the Globe got it wrong did he.
    Kennedy never said that did he.
    Then why is it still scrolling across the breaking news on his website.
    "Gerard Kennedy and family to live in Quebec for part of the summer"

    Man oh man the Kennedy campaign is looking more and more like the last Liberal election campaign.

    Running from stunt to stunt to try to get press.
    Mixed messages.
    I notice the press is still reporting that he FOUNDED the Edmonton food bank and no one in the Kennedy campaign seems to be trying to correct that one either.

    Polarslam and west for Kennedy you guys better get onto your webmaster and get that fixed.
    Maybe the globe reporter that got it wrong also writes for the Kennedy website.

    I have to agree with Jason on this one.
    This stuff is getting embarrassing.

    By Blogger Aristo, at 4:35 p.m.  

  • You need collateral news & editorial mention!

    We*re yawning about all the sorting through possible candidates.

    THRILL ME!...

    *Liberals undertake new rebuilding initiatives!

    The party have agreed to a selection and review process where those members and leadership who are directly involved with Adscam and Sponsorship agree to stand outside the Liberal party until they are absolved of any wrong doing.

    This is part of the progress we are making to regain integrity and the public*s renewed respect. TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 5:06 p.m.  

  • MsM is asleep at the wheel on this.
    No, the band is GREAT!
    It*s the MSM that seems sickly lately.


    *Tomorrow is a very important day for the future of the Internet,*

    said Paul Misener, an Amazon vice president. He warned that phone and cable companies will run roughshod over their customers, *unless Congress acts to stop them* by approving alternative legislation prepared by Sens. Olympia Snowe of Maine and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota.

    By Declan McCullagh
    Staff Writer, CNET News.com
    Published: May 24, 2006, 10:41 AM PDT : http://tinyurl.com/fa8h4

    My personal opinion? Rogers Sugar were criminals when workers owed them mony after a months work.

    Multiply that ten fold for today*s Pirates AT&T and Rogers. TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 5:07 p.m.  

  • Partly leaders almost always win unless their fortunes are going down in flames. If Kennedy, or whoever else becomes leader are smart, they won't run in a "safe" seat. Personally, I think the race is down to Kennedy and Ignatieff now.

    I hate to say it, but Kennedy might have a shot in one of those Edmonton ridings - but only if he's the leader. I think he'd have a better shot in Strathcona, or in a new riding (which would be created following the census).

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 5:46 p.m.  

  • Sorry wasn't he the candidate moving to Quebec just last week now he wants to run out west, I would suggest newfoundland were his type of Liberal common sense is way of life.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:21 p.m.  

  • West for Kennedy
    I am embarrasing myself?
    What does that say about Kennedy's own website that says he is moving to Quebec.
    Is he embarrasing himself?
    It seems that Kenendy supporters consistently have only a very tenuous connection to the truth.

    A western View
    I live in Calgary, I think I have a good grasp of western politics, Mr Kennedy's enterprising theme may play well out here as it MEANS NOTHING.
    The more I see the more I believe Kennedy is a Liberal Stockwell Day.
    His only hook is he is young.
    When is his Jet ski press conference coming?

    By Blogger Aristo, at 10:58 a.m.  

  • West for Kennedy

    Are you thick or what

    live(rhymes with give) verb: have ones home; she lives up the road.

    How do you live somewhere without moving there for gods sake don't tell me to get my facts straight when you do not even know what a very simple word means.

    You don't even have to GRADUATE from university to know what some really simple words mean.

    By Blogger Aristo, at 11:07 p.m.  

  • according to my unique definition (from the Gage Canadian dictionary by the way) the word live means exactly that.
    It obviously does not include Vacations or Visits, if you could read you would know that.
    Kennedy chose the word "live"
    Live means what it does.
    If Kennedy people have a problem with reality that is not my problem.
    Kennedy is saying he will "live" somewhere. That means he will make his home there. That is the definition of the word live. I did not make up that definition.
    I fail to see what is the stretch here, except perhaps your vocabulary.
    Take (in your case 10 minutes) and open up a dictionary, you know those big thick books that tell you what words mean.
    Look up the word live.
    Then come back and talk to me.
    Man oh man, thick is an understatement

    By Blogger Aristo, at 10:58 a.m.  

  • West for Kennedy
    Oh yes try to insult me, try to question my motives.
    You still have to admit I am right and you are wrong.
    You are utterly and completly wrong.
    Just admit it.
    Or perhaps you would like to argue about what wrong means as well.

    By Blogger Aristo, at 12:18 a.m.  

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