Monday, March 20, 2006

Jump in the Pool

Now that the rules have been announced, here are my picks for people who I believe will enter the race. Anyone who wants to enter what will no doubt be the most informal pool ever can post their picks in the comments section or e-mail them to me.

1 point for correctly predicting someone who will run, -1 point for saying someone will run who doesn't. Get your picks in by Wednesday and I'll announce the winner in a few months. A bonus point for anyone correctly predicting someone not on this list who runs.


My Entry
Martha Hall Findlay (free point for everyone!)
John Godfrey
Belinda Stronach
Scott Brison
Michael Ignatieff
Joe Volpe
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Stephane Dion
Gerard Kennedy
Ken Dryden
Dennis Corderre
Carolyn Bennett
David McGuinty
Ralph Goodale

I wanted at least one high profile ommision on my list so I decided to go out on a limb and say that Bob Rae skips it. So enter your picks - I suspect I'm gonna have quite a few leadership profiles to write up...

52 Comments:

  • In:

    Martha Hall Findlay
    John Godfrey
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Joe Volpe
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion
    Ken Dryden
    Ralph Goodale

    By Blogger ALW, at 1:09 AM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Joe Volpe
    Stephane Dion
    Ken Dryden

    By Blogger Mike P., at 1:15 AM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay - 12
    John Godfrey - 11
    Belinda Stronach - 2
    Scott Brison - 5
    Michael Ignatieff - 1
    Joe Volpe - 9
    Maurizio Bevilacqua - 10
    Stephane Dion - 6
    Gerard Kennedy - 4
    Ken Dryden - 7
    Dennis Coderre - 8
    Bob Rae - 3

    My guess if all 13 stayed in until the end. I doubt that'd happen though. When is it too late to drop out?

    I'd see maybe Dryden, Volpe and maybe one or two others drop out before it comes time to vote.

    -Observer

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:30 AM  

  • CALGARYGIRT SAID...

    "My Entry
    Martha Hall Findlay (free point for everyone!)
    John Godfrey
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Joe Volpe
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion
    Gerard Kennedy
    Ken Dryden
    Dennis Corderre
    Carolyn Bennett
    David McGuinty
    Ralph Goodale"

    I sez...

    Martha Hall Findlay
    John Godfrey
    Dennis Corderre
    Belinda Stronach
    Gerald Kennedy
    Ralph Goodale
    Michael Ignatieff
    Stephane Dion
    Joe Volpe
    John Manley

    By Anonymous moquitlam, at 1:55 AM  

  • Belinda Stronach
    Carolyn Bennett
    David McGuinty
    Joe Volpe
    John Godfrey
    Ken Dryden
    Martha Hall Findlay
    Martin Cauchon
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Michael Ignatieff
    Scott Brison
    Stephane Dion

    By Blogger Ned Noodle, at 2:31 AM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay
    John Godfrey
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Joe Volpe
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion
    Gerard Kennedy
    Ken Dryden
    Dennis Corderre
    Carolyn Bennett
    David McGuinty
    Ralph Goodale
    Dominic LeBlanc

    Final Ballot: Ignatieff, Dryden and Kennedy.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:16 AM  

  • Stephane Dion was on CTV Question Period and really kicked some ass. I didn't particularly like him before but if he can defend Afghanistan like that then he could get my vote anyday.

    I also think John Manley could re-enter... slim chance but a chance none the less. With Manley in the race I'd jump for joy he's got the ideas and the brains to definitely move this party in the right direction.

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 6:46 AM  

  • I am not a member of any party at this tim, but I have already informed Mr. Dion that I'll get in behind him if he chooses to run.

    The rest of them are not worth the time of day.

    Brison Will be talked into staying out. If that fails, I'll poura glass of Koll-Aid for anyone who joins his campaign.

    Belinda should also stay out. She and brison are no better than David Emerson.

    Iggy will run, as will Bevilaqua. He'll want to raise his profuile for next time.

    Goodale will run for and from the west.

    I think Dryden will give it a go too.

    Coderre is too ambitious not to run.

    I don't understand how, in a time when corruption must be seen to be purged, that Joe of the $138.00 Pizza will bother to run.

    Dominic LeBlanc will run as the voice from downeast.

    Martha'salready in, she's revving up for a run against Be,linda to recl.aim what was rightfully hers.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:40 AM  

  • seems like ashley macIsaac is in the running. he will prolly get more delegate votes than volpe

    By Anonymous grey wall, at 9:03 AM  

  • Brison will be in.
    Go to www.draftbrison.com
    The on-line support list seems to be growing and I notice some recognizable names.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:33 AM  

  • Added to the list of such outstanding socialists would be the 'spirits' of Karl Marx, Joseph Stallen, and why not Chairman Mao?
    Added from the living would be Bob Rae and Buzzz Hargrove.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:23 AM  

  • When the dust settles .... my Top 4:

    One week before the convention (the last week of November), I expect the polls and delegate counts to show these four in bunch, way ahead of the Rest Of The Pack (ROP):

    Findlay
    Dion
    Rae
    Stronach

    The key will then be the second choice vote (SCV) of the supporters of the ROP, and of the Top 4.

    My prediction for the two duking it out in the final round?

    Findlay
    Rae.

    Who will win? The next Prime Minister of Canada.

    By Anonymous CuriosityKilledTheCat, at 10:24 AM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Ken Dryden
    Bob Rae
    David Orchard (oh I am cruel)

    By Anonymous folkfromzerotown, at 10:59 AM  

  • Its spring today and that turns a mind to ball fields and soccer pitches across the country. In many ways it like the leadership...

    Now that the tournament rules have been set, we should see several teams registering for the competition.
    Will this be a one division tourney or will it end up being an A & B divisions event?
    Will all the teams that register show up at game time? ..or when the rosters get submitted September 29th, will some squads see they dont have the bench strength to compete and withdraw?
    Where will the players who get left without a team, go to play?
    A lot of utility players are still unhappy about being left out to dry by Teams Rock,Tobin and Manley who pulled out before the games began last time.
    There will be about 5000 roster spots available for the big tourney in Montreal on Dec 2nd. There were 4680 in 1990 and about 3500 for the coronation in 03.
    10 teams,split evenly gives us a plus-minus point of 500 or 10 %.
    Its interesting that often times 10 % has been used as a drop off point in past tourneys ! Will half of the teams get above the average and five fall short? With this large number of teams, the spread from 1st to say 7th. in the first round will likely be
    small enough to make for a very interesting event!
    Someone needs to start tracking which teams sign the 102 available carded players on the national caucus team. Again split among 10 teams, they will be highly courted. Im sure and it will be revealing to see how widely spread they end up.On the flip side, the fact that 206 houseleagues or ridings have no carded players to control their league, one would expect more split results than full slates being chosen.
    Its fun to sit down with a sharp pencil and a calculator and simulate what might be a 4,5 or even 6 round competition.

    Im thinking that sure bet entries will come from: Team's
    Hall-Findlay
    Ignatieff
    Rae
    Volpe
    Godfrey
    Dion
    Brison

    Odds favour entries by
    Teams
    Dryden
    Coderre

    Quite Possible
    Kennedy
    Bevilacqua
    Goodale

    By Anonymous North of French River, at 11:04 AM  

  • Oops, forgot to include Belinda..guess that shows my bias.

    By Anonymous North of French River, at 11:10 AM  

  • A challenge to all candidates for leadership of the Liberal Party:

    In the USA Governor Howard Dean started a revolution when he dragged the Democratic Party kicking and squealing into the internet age. In doing so, he rejuvenated that party, and enable hundreds of thousands of people who had previously never been active in politics, to plunge into this noble profession.

    The results are already clear: a much stronger party, with a much wider base of active members, running candidates for offices at many different levels. American democracy has benefited from Dean's initiatives.

    My challenge to each candidate is this:

    • Wide membership drive - strive to have as many new members signed up THROUGH THE INTERNET PROCESS as possible, whether or not these new members support you. This will build a larger base of active members for the party, and mean a more effective election fight.

    • Your blog - start a blog and post – at least weekly – a personal position paper for members to read. Allow some blogger (my suggestion is CalgryGrit) to nominate the topics to be covered in each week's blogs. We will all be able to read the views and policies of each candidate at the same time. Allow room for comments on your blog.

    These two steps will unleash the energy of a resurgent Liberal Party and help the party win a majority next time.

    By Anonymous CuriosityKilledTheCat, at 12:17 PM  

  • I don't care one way or the other about the Liberal leadership, but this notion that Howard Dean is a miracle worker needs to be revisited.

    First of all, for all his vaunted internet fundraising and organizing, what did it win him? Jack squat. He got bulldozed in Iowa by John Kerry, as establishmentarian a figure as could be possibly be dreamt up by central casting.

    What did it win his party? The White House? Nope, the GOP was re-elected and reclaimed the popular vote. The Senate? Nope, lost seats there. The House? Nope.

    Other than that, the Democratic Party seems much stronger. For instance, it is rumoured that he may have had a positive effect on Democratic results in county sheriff and dog-catcher races, but I haven't looked those up.

    The internet expands the political universe, but it hasn't revolutionized it. At the end of the day, all the people you sign up still have to come out and vote. Convincing someone to part with their time, as opposed to their ten dollars, requires more than the anonymity of internet meet-ups.

    By Blogger DM, at 12:30 PM  

  • Who's running:
    Martha Hall Findlay
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Stephane Dion
    Bob Rae
    Ken Dryden
    Ralph Goodale
    Joe Volpe
    John Godfrey

    Who's got a chance:
    Dion - I am too young to remember the whole Clarity Act thing, but the more I see this guy on TV the more I'm impressed.

    Belinda - High profile woman candidate could play kingmaker on the last ballot.

    Volpe - Won't win, but will use "old style" tactics to mobilize immigrant base and hang in there 'till the end.

    Who's out:
    Michael Ignatieff - I think he would be the best choice, but he's too cautious and comes with too much baggage for some in the LPC.

    By Anonymous Andrew, at 12:33 PM  

  • Tina Keeper would be perfect!

    By Blogger Glen, at 1:31 PM  

  • None of the present "contenders" will resonate with the vast majority of Canadian voters.

    As a life long conservative, I am so pleased that real threats to the conservatives having a long term seat at 24 Sussex chose to not run.

    A McKenna, a Manely and even a Tobin would have been able to put up a serious threat to a Harper government.

    Turncoat Tories won't cut it. Ex Dippers really won't cut it. Anyone associated with the Sponsorship fiasco (and that includes almost any Liberal from Quebec) won't have a chance with the Canadian voter, although I must admit that Dion MAY be the exception.

    It will be interesting to see if Goodale will run. He at least has some credibility, and regardless of the RCMP inquiry on the income trust issue, I beleive that he is still viewed as a fundamentally decent man.

    At any rate, it will be interesting to see how this pans out. One thing, Liberals, don't kid yourself that there is a potential Trudeau waiting in the wings. I just don't see it with the many no-names that are contenders at this point.

    By Blogger Andy, at 1:39 PM  

  • _I agree with CuriosityKTC that it will be a shorter list than many expect.

    Findlay (free pt)
    Brison (spoonfed popularism)
    Ignatieff (the apparent heir)
    Corderre (the Quebec candidate)
    *Tony Valeri (willing long-shot)
    (and maybe 1 other misc who'll simply grab a headline then drop out before the convention occurs)

    _With Chretien /Martin leading - commanding - for the past 15 years, too many of the potentials have had "follower" overly imprinted on their careers.

    By Blogger Classic, at 2:29 PM  

  • Ignatieff is in for sure, I can personally guarantee it.

    As for the rest, I'd predict:
    Stronach, Dryden, Bevilacqua, Fontana, Volpe, Kennedy.

    I'm leaving Brison and Goodale out because of Income Trusts, I think it will scare them off.

    Bob Rae will not run against Ignatieff.

    In the end it will be Ignatieff with Stronach and Kennedy on the final ballot.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:30 PM  

  • In:
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Ken Dryden
    Martha Hall Findlay
    David McGuinty
    Joe Volpe
    John Godfrey
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion
    Ralph Goodale

    By Anonymous Sunderlib, at 2:52 PM  

  • "Ignatieff is in for sure, I can personally guarantee it."


    Although I have no doubt the poster is at heart sincere, personal guarentees from some who is annonymous are a tad dubious. Just sayin'.

    http://centreofcanada.blogspot.com/

    By Blogger Don, at 3:19 PM  

  • Let's not get carried away with the role of the internet, particularly blogs (no disrespect to this one, of course).

    So what if a politician blogs, or raises money online as opposed to using phone or direct mail? Does the medium really matter?

    I, for one, care a great deal more about a candidate's policies.
    Rather than have a campaign dominated by discussions of which candidate (or really, which candidate's STAFF) is most 'internet-savvy', let's focus on issues.

    For example: Post-secondary education has been spectacularly mishandled by most provinces in recent years. It's time for a national approach, and I challenge all prospective candidates to outline how they would solve the student debt crisis while making our post-secondary institutions more competitive internationally.

    The Last Trudeaumaniac

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:37 PM  

  • Hey Andy,
    thanks for pissin' in the pool! Let's just take one of your quotes and gaze at it for a sec...

    "None of the present "contenders" will resonate with the vast majority of Canadian voters.
    As a life long conservative, I am so pleased that real threats to the conservatives having a long term seat at 24 Sussex chose to not run."

    My understanding of Canadian history is that the constant real threat to you Conservatives is not us, but yourself. One by one, your leaders shoot themselves in the foot before turning the shotgun on the party -- getting elected as 'an alternative liberal party' and then governing like George 'freakin' Bush (Big and small). It's the people who vote in the Liberal party time after time, thanks to a lot of great ideas and people, but also because you guys let the loose nutz run the ship into the ground. You've got the helm again, so please don't wreck our country too much until we're ready to throw you the life preserver...

    By Anonymous sophoclesimnot, at 3:42 PM  

  • Of the 14 candidates listed in the post, only these 8 have any real potential.

    Michael Ignatieff
    Ken Dryden
    Martha Hall Findlay
    David McGuinty
    Joe Volpe
    John Godfrey
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion

    The excluded have hopeless Gomery baggage and or crippled French language.

    Even some of these 8 have language problems, but aside from Ken Dryden, the rest have no national recognition.

    They would have to get editorial coverage for heroics, like rescuing a planeload of Canadians from terrorists or saving a class of teenage figure skaters from soft ice on the Rideau canal. Tall order.

    Do we liberals want to really take our boot off the necks of these people? see:-
    TheCanadianSentinel.blogspot.com
    TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 3:44 PM  

  • Yikes! The rollcall of Liberal Leader wannabes reads like a patchwork quilt.

    What's it mean to be a Liberal these days anyway. Kind of hard to tell with so many characters and leadership styles of candidates to choose from.

    Have the Liberal officially become the voice of Canada's unions yet or the voice of the working stiff? Hard to tell after the last election.

    I'd be wanting to know how a potential leader will find a common thread to bring the Heinz 57 variety liberal together to mean something?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:51 PM  

  • Not a list, but a question, which one other poster sorta touched on. I haven't read the rules of the Liberal leadership, and don't know the particulars (just saw this September cutoff date here).

    What I want to know is if there are any contingency plans to deal with a very large field of candidates? Just imagine the leadership debates with 15-20 candidates? I don't know if I believe that many will drop out early, or not enter in the first place. This race, beyond being primarily about who leads the party, is also about gaining influence in the future party set-up. Some people who no doubt have negligible chance of success will stay the course to the very end, to see what they can bargain for.

    So, having said that, and knowing that the Liberal party needs to reconnect with the Canadian public, should there not be a date where a preliminary vote will be held that will whittle the field down to a more manageable (and more aurally friendly) subset for the stretch run of the race?

    Sep 29th does sound late, though I suppose it gives just over 2 months for the final contenders. Should be ample time.

    Does anyone know the record for participants in a leadership convention, that stayed in for any appreciable time? The '76 Tory and '68 Liberal convention both drew many people, no?

    Yes, I could have done more research on this, but just in a particularly lazy mood this Monday afternoon.

    By Anonymous KRB, at 4:24 PM  

  • To run:
    1. Martha Hall Findlay
    2. John Godfrey
    3. Stephane Dion
    4. Michael Ignatieff (it'll be him OR Rae, but I'm going with Mike)
    5. Belinda Stronach
    6. Joe Volpe (or Bevilacqua, or Ianno)
    7. Ken Dryden
    8. Gerard Kennedy (my MPP will run... why? Things are looking better for the Ontario Libs, that means McGuinty will stick around)

    Brison won't run (over the e-mail thing) and will back... Belinda.

    How will the convention play out?

    First off the ballot - Findlay. She'll have no support so it won't matter.

    Next off will be Godfrey. Dryden will kill his GTA support - incidentally he will endorse Kennedy.

    Next off will be Volpe. He won't garner much support outside of mediterranean-Canadian riding associations. He will back Gerard Kennedy.

    Ken Dryden will be the next to go -the proliferation of leftish GTA candidates will kill his chances. Likewise his dull-as-dishwater speaking style won't help in a short race where sound-bytes (not gigabytes) will count for a lot.

    Ignatieff will be bumped off next. He will do fairly well out west, but has no real base in the party, and the Iraq stuff seriously limits his growth potential. He will probably back Gerard Kennedy, galvanizing a strong lead for Gerard.

    At this point, Stephane Dion will drop off the ballot. Dion will have swept Quebec (remember he's winning over Quebec liberals - not too many soft nationalists there), and some "we should run a Quebecois" folks. He will endorse the front-runner, Gerard Kennedy.

    Belinda will then lose by a fair margin on the final ballot to Gerard Kennedy.

    Gerard Kennedy will not win the next election (it'll be 2008) but will hold Harper to a minority once more. Kennedy will make gains in the rest of Canada, but the Conservatives will compensate by gaining at the expense of the Bloc. The Liberals will regain power only if they can sheath the knives that would then come out - aimed at Gerard Kennedy.

    Also, in 2020 Belinda Stronach will be the nations foremost elder statesperson. If that's true, I demand a million points.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:56 PM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay
    John Godfrey
    Belinda Stronach
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Stephane Dion
    Ralph Goodale
    Bob Rae
    Carolyn Bennett
    Ken Dryden

    By Blogger BC Tory, at 5:57 PM  

  • anon 3:56 is close, but membership sales close too soon. The moneyed candidates will lock up too many delegates by 7/1.

    The noobs (Kennedy included) will be looking in while the brokers deal.

    Kennedy could be like Jean Charest. Guess who plays the Kim Campbell bit?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:27 PM  

  • I find the negative comments from the Conservatives about the narrow breadth and shallow depth of the Liberal leadership field a bit too much.
    Stephen Harper was a Hill staffer who got elected as an MP but then quit after one term, and then worked at a right-wing think tank, the National Citizens Coalition. And then he became leader of a national party.
    He is probably one of the MOST underqualified people to ever serve as PM of Canada.
    Oh, and how many people ran for the Con leadership when it was held? Three. Seems to me there is significantly more interest from people just as qualified or moreso for the LPC leadership than there ever was for the Cons.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:32 PM  

  • While we're speculating on possible candidates, how about Herb Dhaliwal and Justin Trudeau?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:17 PM  

  • Ignatieff
    Finlay
    Godfrey
    Stronach
    Dion

    Not: Coderre
    Volpe
    Kennedy
    Rae
    Goodale

    Don't know about: Bevilacqua
    Mcguinty

    By Blogger JB, at 8:26 PM  

  • Delightful!
    Get the excellent logo supporting our soldiers.. Just cut and paste a bit of copy into your links or make a main post of as I have on http://TonyGuitar.blogspot.com.

    Very easy to do:

    http://WWW.Cnheroes.blogspot.com/

    WWW.CnHeroes.blogspot.com
    TG

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 9:03 PM  

  • Stephane Dion
    Ken Dryden
    Scott Brison
    Gerard Kennedy
    Michael Ignatieff
    Denis Coderre
    Belinda Stronach
    John Godfrey
    Carolyn Bennett
    Joe Volpe
    Bob Rae
    Martha Hall Findlay
    Ashley McIsaac

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 9:43 PM  

  • The Contestants

    Belinda
    Dryden
    Iggy
    Coderre
    Godfrey
    Rae
    Volpe
    Brison
    Dion

    First Ballot drop-out - Volpe & Coderre

    Second Ballot drop-out - Dryden & Godfrey

    Third Ballot drop-out - Belinda & Dion

    Fourth Ballot drop-out - Rae

    Final Ballot - Iggy vs Brison

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:55 PM  

  • Iggy vs Brison sounds right for the final ballot.

    It will be a classic struggle in the wee hours of the morning between status quo and generational change. \brison may have the edge as more young libs will be supporting him and they stay up late!

    By Anonymous George, at 11:26 PM  

  • "Who will win? The next Prime Minister of Canada."

    It never ceases to amaze me what arrogant pricks liberals are.

    " I challenge all prospective candidates to outline how they would solve the student debt crisis while making our post-secondary institutions more competitive internationally."

    Seeing as how most university students are bleeding heart liberals who are against businesses and profit I think that university students should have to pay the whole shot.That way they wouldn't have to accept that dirty money businesses donate to keep the universities running.

    Horny Toad

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:08 AM  

  • It would be so refreshing to see a Quebequer run. It's been so long since we've seen a PM from Queb... oh, wait a minute... when is the last time we HAVEN'T??

    Stop with the insane Quebec-centric approach to government. I agree that bilingual is important, but there are other provinces too you know. Who contribute as much and who deserve to be represented once in a while. And no, I am not from Alberta. Maybe instead of having a leader who "REALLY understands Quebec" it would be nice to have a Quebec leader who REALLY understands the rest of the country? If such a person exists, I will sign up behind them right now.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:02 AM  

  • I think a lot of people are underestimating Joe Volpe's candidacy. I think he would be a horrible Liberal leader, but he can effectively organize immigrant groups to buy memberships as well as mobilizing the strong Italian-Canadian community during the leadership campaign. If Volpe runs, he's gonna be stickin' around until the end.

    By Anonymous Andrew, at 11:07 AM  

  • Anon 7:02, its not a matter of choice for the Liberals, with respect to running a non-Quebec candidate. Even the alternation between French and English Canadian leaders has cost them dearly. Given dire straits presently accosting them in Quebec, it just makes sense to elect a Quebecois leader.

    Its because of Quebec voters - observe the record:

    Paul Martin
    2004: 33.9%
    2006: 20.7%

    Jean Chretien
    1993: 33%
    1997: 36.7%
    2000: 44.2%

    John Turner (and this is just against the Tories - no Bloc to soak up votes)
    1988: 30.3%
    1984: 35.4%

    Trudeau
    1980: 68.2%
    1979: 61.7%
    1974: 54.1%
    1972: 48.9%
    1968: 53.6%

    Pearson
    1965: 45.6%
    1963: 45.6%
    1962: 39.2%
    1958: 45.6%

    St. Laurent
    1957: 57.6%
    1953: 61%
    1949: 60.4%

    The english leaders of the Liberal party since King have all contributed to an observable drop in the party's fortunes in Quebec. The inability of Turner to win, and of Martin and Pearson to win majorities had everything to do with their inability to win over Quebeckers, relative to their francophone contemporaries.

    Average support in Quebec under Francophone leaders: 52.67%

    Average support in Quebec under anglophone leaders: 37%

    Translation: IF YOU WANT TO WIN ELECT DION.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:48 AM  

  • With such a broad field, it will be interesting to see where the support of the early losers go. That is, there are a lot of "candidates" who will recognize fairly early on that they don't have the organization or the funds to get past the first ballot at the convention (or even make the convention). These candidates will try to play a king maker role and try to direct their supporters to support to whom they are either personally or politically alligned with. Does anyone have a good sense of where the networks and alliances are?

    There are some candidates with organizations and networks: Brison, Stronach, Volpe, Dion, McGuinty, Rae, Iggy? That alone should get them to the convention and past the first ballot.

    Some however share the same organization - will McGuinty - Kennedy. There is going to be some pressure from these networks for one candidate to drop out early.

    I can't see Stronach really lasting in this race. She's a "three" dressed up as a "nine" politically. Where does her support go? Brison?

    By Blogger CoteGauche, at 12:54 PM  

  • NB MP Paul Zed is still thinking about running.(see canadaeast.com March 21)I think there are many life-long Liberals who don't want Brison to be the only Atlantic candidate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:24 PM  

  • Brison is the choice of ATlantic Liberals!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:46 PM  

  • Paul Zed is a homophopbe. Plain and simple. His lack of interest in Brison has nothing to do life-long Liberalism nonsense.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:40 PM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay
    John Godfrey
    Belinda Stronach
    Scott Brison
    Michael Ignatieff
    Joe Volpe
    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Stephane Dion
    Gerard Kennedy
    Ken Dryden
    Carolyn Bennett
    David McGuinty
    Ralph Goodale
    Tony Ianno
    Bob Rae

    ---Husain A.---

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:15 AM  

  • Hall Findlay
    J-God
    Ashley MacIsaac
    Belinda
    Brison
    Iggy
    Rae
    Volpe
    Bevilacqua
    Dion
    Kennedy
    Dryden
    Mini-Dalt
    Coderre
    Bennett
    McTeague

    By Anonymous Tom A-N, at 1:22 PM  

  • This is my prediction for who will actually make the convetion; I suspect others will play for a while but drop out before the first ballot.

    Maurizio Bevilacqua
    Scott Brison
    Stephane Dion
    Ken Dryden
    John Godfrey
    Michael Ignatieff
    Gerard Kennedy
    Ashley MacIsaac
    Dan McTeague
    Bob Rae
    Belinda Stronach

    By Anonymous fjm, at 3:07 PM  

  • Let's see if I've learned anything about you Liberals!

    WILL RUN
    -Martha Hall Findlay
    -John Godfrey
    -Belinda Stronach
    -Scott Brison
    -Michael Ignatieff
    -Stephane Dion
    -Gerard Kennedy
    -Ralph Goodale
    -Ashley MacIsaac
    -Dan McTeague (guess what... he's my favorite!)

    WILL NOT RUN
    x Joe Volpe
    x Maurizio Bevilacqua
    x Ken Dryden
    x Dennis Corderre
    x Carolyn Bennett
    x David McGuinty
    x Bob Rae (I'm with you on this one CG... he must realize that if he wins the leadership, we Ontario Tories will MAKE SURE Ontario remembers Rae!!!)

    By Blogger Christian Conservative, at 7:36 PM  

  • Quite helpful data, lots of thanks for your article.

    By Anonymous www.huesca-3d.com, at 2:18 PM  

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