Mood Swings
Yes, the pollsters have a new batch of polls out and the Liberals are anywhere from 5 to 13 points ahead. Plus or minus 50 percentage points, from the looks of things.
posted by calgarygrit at 7:17 p.m.
Canadian Politics, Canadian Politics and more Canadian Politics. From the mind of a Calgary Liberal, now living in the centre of the universe.
Online Poker in Canada
Calgary Musicals
Blog Roll
A BCer in Toronto
Adam Radwanski
Big City Liberal
Calgary Liberal
Coyne
Daveberta
Delacourt
Far and Wide
538
Impolitical
James Bow
Kady O'Malley
Pundit's Guide
Scott's DiaTribes
Silver Powers
Stephen Taylor
Warren
Wells
Liblogs
Progressive Bloggers
Blogging Dippers
Blogging Tories
News
Bourque
Calgary Herald Blogs
CBC
CTV
Full Pundit
Globe & Mail
The Hill Times
Canada.com
National Newswatch
Best of CalgaryGrit
ELXN41
Election '09 '08
(41% of) Alberta Votes 2008: The Ed Files Election
The Race for Stornoway (2006)
(65% of) Canada Votes 2006
2011
In support of a primary system
The Fall and Rise of Dalton McGuinty
ALP leadership candidate profiles
LPC leadership race expectations
Election Postmortems: Greens, Bloc, NDP, Lib, CPC
Alberta Politics FAQ
Swann Song
2010
Lessons from Nenshi Victory
What's the matter with Calgary?
Calgary mayoral candidate profiles
Tony Clement bungles the Census
Everything you wanted to know about the Census
In favour a Liberal-CPC merger
Against a Liberal-NDP merger
Moment of the Decade
2009
Christmas Letters: May, Layton, Ignatieff, Harper
Advice for Ignatieff
Wild Rose Leadership Race
Alberta Politics Gets Interesting
MP Interviews
Michael Ignatieff profile
One Member One Vote
2008
Alberta Liberal Leadership Race
The Race Victory March for Stornoway Sussex Stornoway
Political Insanity
Duelling Pro-Democracy Rallies
Coalition
Campaigning in New Hampshire
Rebuilding the Big Red Machine
Obama Endorsement
CG on Test the Nation
2007
2007 Year in Review Quiz
The Saga of Paul Jackson
The Saga of Craig Chandler
Dion's First Year
David Karwacki Interview
Peace in Our Time
Quebec Debat Live Blog
Green Questions Series
Harper's First Year
2006
2006 Year in Review Quiz
Dion Wins
CG Unmasked
Results for People
Gerard Kennedy Endorsement
Rebuilding the Liberals
Draft Paul Hellyer
2005 Year in Rerview
2005
In Defense of the NEP
Harper's Errors in Logic
State of the Disunion Address
LPCA Convention, featuring Jean Lapierre
2004
2004 Recap
Gay Marriage
Gun Registry
Paul Martin's First Year
Provincial Debate Recap
French Debate Recap
Ill-Fated Atttempts at Humour
Tim Hudak's math problem
Tim Hortons versus the UN
Exclusive: Roll Up The Attack Ads
How the Grinch Prorogued Parliament
You too, can be an anonymous Liberal
A Letter from the Nigerian Prince
Stelmach Fixed Election Dates
Black versus Female Presidents
Resistance is Futile
Where Jim Dinning Stands
Fantasy Leadership
Memories
Assymetrical Advertising
Belinda's Love Life
The Race To Decentralize
Why Did The Chicken Cross The Road?
Stampede Fashion Roundup
2005,
2006,
2007,
2008,
2009,
2010,
2011
Person of the Year
2010,
2009,
2008,
2007,
2006,
2005,
2004
Contests
Moment of the Decade
Canada's Silliest Scandal
Canada's Biggest Election
Canada's Best Premier
Greatest Prime Minister...We Never Had
The Greatest Prime Minister
CalgaryGrit Hall of Fame
Jean Lapierre
Ralph Klein
Better Know a Riding
Saanich Gulf Islands
Papineau
Central Nova
Bart's Books
Deadly Fall
Chretien Memoirs
Mulroney's Memoirs
Rick Mercer Report
French Kiss
Black Swan
The Way it Works
Democracy Derailed
Right Side Up
Fun with Numbers
2011 Election by numbers
2011 Election Seat Projections
Seat Projections
2008 Conservative Vote
2008 Liberal Vote
Liberal-NDP merger (2011 update)
The Impact of By Elections
2008 CPC Breakthroughs
2008 Liberal Breakthroughs
National Battleground?
Incumbency Effects
2006 Liberal Leadership Projections
Perils of Strategic Voting
9 Comments:
I think the continuing slew of conflicting polls may be showing how indecisive the Canadian electorate is. They aren't overly fond of PMPM, but hardly harbour warm fuzzy feelings for Harper. The only consistent figures shown are the Bloc's mammoth lead in Quebec and the fact that Layton's goody-two-shoes act may get him some extra Christmas cards from Canadians but not their votes. His party has remained stagnant.
Matt
By Anonymous, at 7:47 p.m.
Is it just me, or does everybody own a polling firm? For the longest time, it was just Angus-Reid (or Ipsos, now I guess). Now it's Pollara, Strategic Counsel, Decima, etc. etc.
Are the more profitable now because of the minority government?
Do you need a license, or can any monkey with a good grasp of Microsoft Excel start one?
:)
By Jim (Progressive Right), at 9:09 p.m.
The electorate is definitely undecided right now. The differences between these polls is outside the margin of error which shows us two things:
1. The electorate is volatile
2. The inherent problems with polls
I think we can all agree that the BQ is up in Quebec, Canadians like Layton but won't vote for him in droves, and the Conservatives are down in BC. Everything else is about the same as the last election. But with things this unstable, the campaign is actually going to mean something.
By calgarygrit, at 9:13 p.m.
I love that both stories appear in the same newspaper.
G&M: "Liberals widen lead."
G&M: "Liberal lead closes."
Reader: o_O
Also, don't know about the other ones, but the Strategic Counsel has been around for a long time. It's run by Allan Gregg, probably the most famous pollster in the country.
By Ryan Ringer, at 9:49 p.m.
When we look at the two polls, which are 7 points apart (or a 3.5% increase for the tories, and a 3.5% decrease for the grits), I note one thing.
The Strategic Counsel poll also asked a lot of questions about the leaders, Harper and Martin. Asking those questions and then asking the "how will you vote for question" would tend to increase the Liberal count. After all, Harpers negatives are pretty high.
On the other hand, Decima doesn't appear to have concentrated on that. Just a question or two added to another poll as near as I can tell. There the results show greater tory and less Liberal support.
It adds up to an interesting campaign. The tories should keep Harper in the background, and concentrate on the scandal of the day. Liberals will try and put Harper front and center, having regard to the fact that Martin is not overwelmingly loved.
The tories have a lock on Alberta, which should counteract the modest amount of seats which Liberals can get from Quebec (where the bloc has overwelming support other than in Mount Royal).
Ontario is close by either poll when one factors Liberal dominance in Toronto. The tories could have some good gains.
Liberal losses in Quebec and Ontario with Tories gains in Ontario. It could be the closest election since 1979. And again, a Quebec party will hold the balance of power.
By Anonymous, at 9:21 a.m.
I was called by Decima last month and was asked who I would vote for if the federal election was called today.
I lied.
By Nastyboy, at 10:50 a.m.
Polls, do you remeber last year during the 2004 election. Many polls show a slim conservative lead, and that all changed election nignt when the Liberals won a minority government. So no poll ever matters the only poll that we have to get concerned with is election night.
AND THE LIBERALS WILL WIN A MAJORITY
By Anonymous, at 11:26 a.m.
I'll take that bet!
By Greg Staples, at 12:14 p.m.
Jim asked: "or can any monkey with a good grasp of Microsoft Excel start one?"
Didn't you read about The Western Standard western separtism push, er, poll (typo there sorry)? It seems to me that that answers your questions.
TB
Cerberus
By Ted Betts, at 3:41 p.m.
Post a Comment
<< Home