Thursday, October 20, 2005

Mood Swings

It's that time of the month again. That time when you hear it from them on a daily basis. They can't make up their minds and seem to contradict what they told you just yesterday. The mood swings are intense and you don't know what to make of what they tell you.

Yes, the pollsters have a new batch of polls out and the Liberals are anywhere from 5 to 13 points ahead. Plus or minus 50 percentage points, from the looks of things.

10 Comments:

  • I think the continuing slew of conflicting polls may be showing how indecisive the Canadian electorate is. They aren't overly fond of PMPM, but hardly harbour warm fuzzy feelings for Harper. The only consistent figures shown are the Bloc's mammoth lead in Quebec and the fact that Layton's goody-two-shoes act may get him some extra Christmas cards from Canadians but not their votes. His party has remained stagnant.

    Matt

    By Anonymous Tory Matt, at 7:47 PM  

  • Is it just me, or does everybody own a polling firm? For the longest time, it was just Angus-Reid (or Ipsos, now I guess). Now it's Pollara, Strategic Counsel, Decima, etc. etc.

    Are the more profitable now because of the minority government?

    Do you need a license, or can any monkey with a good grasp of Microsoft Excel start one?

    :)

    By Blogger Jim, at 9:09 PM  

  • The electorate is definitely undecided right now. The differences between these polls is outside the margin of error which shows us two things:

    1. The electorate is volatile
    2. The inherent problems with polls

    I think we can all agree that the BQ is up in Quebec, Canadians like Layton but won't vote for him in droves, and the Conservatives are down in BC. Everything else is about the same as the last election. But with things this unstable, the campaign is actually going to mean something.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:13 PM  

  • I love that both stories appear in the same newspaper.

    G&M: "Liberals widen lead."
    G&M: "Liberal lead closes."
    Reader: o_O

    Also, don't know about the other ones, but the Strategic Counsel has been around for a long time. It's run by Allan Gregg, probably the most famous pollster in the country.

    By Blogger Clear Grit, at 9:49 PM  

  • When we look at the two polls, which are 7 points apart (or a 3.5% increase for the tories, and a 3.5% decrease for the grits), I note one thing.

    The Strategic Counsel poll also asked a lot of questions about the leaders, Harper and Martin. Asking those questions and then asking the "how will you vote for question" would tend to increase the Liberal count. After all, Harpers negatives are pretty high.

    On the other hand, Decima doesn't appear to have concentrated on that. Just a question or two added to another poll as near as I can tell. There the results show greater tory and less Liberal support.

    It adds up to an interesting campaign. The tories should keep Harper in the background, and concentrate on the scandal of the day. Liberals will try and put Harper front and center, having regard to the fact that Martin is not overwelmingly loved.

    The tories have a lock on Alberta, which should counteract the modest amount of seats which Liberals can get from Quebec (where the bloc has overwelming support other than in Mount Royal).

    Ontario is close by either poll when one factors Liberal dominance in Toronto. The tories could have some good gains.

    Liberal losses in Quebec and Ontario with Tories gains in Ontario. It could be the closest election since 1979. And again, a Quebec party will hold the balance of power.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:21 AM  

  • I was called by Decima last month and was asked who I would vote for if the federal election was called today.

    I lied.

    By Blogger Nastyboy, at 10:50 AM  

  • Polls, do you remeber last year during the 2004 election. Many polls show a slim conservative lead, and that all changed election nignt when the Liberals won a minority government. So no poll ever matters the only poll that we have to get concerned with is election night.

    AND THE LIBERALS WILL WIN A MAJORITY

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:26 AM  

  • I'll take that bet!

    By Blogger Greg Staples, at 12:14 PM  

  • can I take that bet as well. Give me 20-1 odds and I'd gladly risk $1000 to win $50. With such politically experienced and astute people like John Reynolds and Peter Van Loan running the conservatives campaign, I think a minority is a best case scenario for the grits. In addition, the Conservatives are so much better positioned this time around, having hammered out official policies at their convention in Montreal. I think things like comments from Randy White and Chryl Gallant about abortion really hurt the Cons and the Libs were quite succesful in attacking them on the social issues/hidden agenda card. This will not be the case in the upcoming election, which will undoubtedly be fought on ethics and integrity in government as a leading issue. Heck, I'd give a favourable money line to anyone who wants to bet the Libs are going to even win a minority.

    By Blogger Ian Ferraro, at 3:11 PM  

  • Jim asked: "or can any monkey with a good grasp of Microsoft Excel start one?"

    Didn't you read about The Western Standard western separtism push, er, poll (typo there sorry)? It seems to me that that answers your questions.

    TB
    Cerberus

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 3:41 PM  

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